Basketball World Cup 2023, quarterfinals on Wednesday, 06.09.2023
The Maple Leafs should at least reach the semifinals of this FIBA World Cup 2023, if not make it to the finals.
Anyway, this assumption runs like a thread through my present Canada Slovenia tip. Especially since Germany has already proven how best to “disenchant” the Eastern Europeans.
Slovenia started quite well in the game against Germany, but was then kept at a distance in an extremely convincing manner, especially towards the final siren with a final score of 71:100.
Basketball is and remains first and foremost a team sport, so that even with Luca Doncic alone, the Eastern Europeans can no longer cover up the huge qualitative difference that exists between the rest of the squad and the top teams at this world championship.
Against the DBB selection, all the problems came to light that the Mavericks’ superstar has been able to skilfully paint over with his strong performances so far: weak 3s quota, too few rebounds as well as sloppy defensive work.
Germany was for Slovenia – I deliberately leave out the victory over Australia (91:80) at this point – the first really strong team at this World Cup that harbored serious medal ambitions.
The five victories in a row of the Eastern Europeans over weaker nations like Venezuela, Georgia, Cape Verde and the already mentioned Australians in all honor, but a contender for gold, silver or bronze was not necessarily there.
If we extend our observation period to the two weeks before the start of the World Cup, it is easier to understand why I would inaugurate a sports betting bonus for this match with a win for the Canadians.
By the way: The Interwetten bonus, which we have reviewed in detail, is highly recommended at this point!
The two friendly games in the first half of August against Spain (99:79) and the USA (92:62) make it more than clear how the Eastern Europeans with their one-man army, which responds to the name Luka Doncic, do not get far against top teams.
I would put the Canadians at about the same level as the two nations above – if not a notch above!
After all, the Maple Leafs downed the Spaniards 88-85 in their final group game of the Intermediate Round on Sunday thanks to a great defensive performance.
Against the Slovenians, I expect the North Americans to have a much more blatant scoring advantage in comparison.
According to the Canada Slovenia odds from the betting providers, they have estimated a win factor of around 1.30x for a success of the nominal home team.
Little? Not necessarily, as I assume at least a 10-point difference – and that’s only if Slovenia keeps pace for a while.
Because the superiority of the Canadians on all positions except the one where Luka Doncic operates should make a real class difference recognizable on Wednesday.
The two guard/forwards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dilion Brooks already proved to be decisive for the game against Spain with 30 and 22 points respectively. At the same time, the Iberians defend much better than Slovenia.
The mismatches at these two positions alone could tilt the game clearly in favor of the Maple Leafs. Especially since the Slovenians can’t even really benefit from the only real weakness in the Canadians’ game.
CAN head coach Jordi Fernández trusts his starting five players and leaves them on the floor for longer than average.
Rightly so in my opinion, because Dort Luguentz scored only three points in 27 minutes against Spain, whereas Nickeil Alexander-Walker “at least” scored five points.
The other three bench players without points didn’t even get five minutes on the floor.
The Slovenians will hardly be able to take advantage of any signs of fatigue in the Canadian S5 by bringing in fresh bench players, as their own reserves are on an even lower level in terms of quality.
Conclusion: Canada will prevail without much problems. Consequently, I will not hesitate for a second to use the Bwin app in this regard as well.
About 10 to 20 points will separate both nations on the tableau in the end – at least I strongly assume that.
After all, Luka Doncic has spent far too long in his solo entertainer mode keeping a team afloat that wouldn’t have even come close to a quarterfinal ticket without him.
My Canada Slovenia tip: CAN wins with handicap -7.5.
