NBA 2022/23, on Wednesday, 11.01.2023
Just a few days before the exciting NFL playoffs get underway in the USA, I turn my full attention to the NBA doubleheader between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Detroit Pistons – the second part, to be precise!
Because after watching the first game and consulting the stats, it’s obvious to me that I’m going to make my 76ers Pistons betting tip at the betting shop to use a home win bet with HC …
Just a few days ago, I was holding off on a 76ers Pistons tip. Because in the first game of the doubleheader, I wanted to wait and see how the Sixers would do without Joel Embiid.
The Cameroonian was recently carried to the team hospital due to a foot injury and will be out for the next few days. But since the centre is the lynchpin of the Phillies’ game, I was a little uneasy at first.
Sure, the Pistons are the whipping boy of the NBA with a record of 11 to 32 – even if some real superstars are growing up – but I didn’t want to completely write off the Bad Boys in their own stadium …
In the end, the Sixers won relatively clearly at Little Ceasars Arena with 123-111 and thus removed my already expressed residual doubts I had about the Phillies’ performance without their number 1.
James Harden was simply too much for Detroit. For with 11 rebounds, 11 assists and 20 points, “The Beard” was able to march up and down the Bad Boys’ half court at will. The Pistons did not know how to put a stop to this hustle and bustle in the long run.
My feeling that the 76ers will also win the rematch in front of their own backdrop just two days later is not only obvious, but also supported by the data. In fact, Philadelphia has lost only one of its last twelve games at home.
The reason why the 76ers can win such a game against an occasionally unpleasant opponent like Detroit relatively clearly, even with the current line-up, has not least to do with the opponent itself.
The Pistons are also in free fall this season, especially since a lot of personnel dropped out shortly after the turn of the year. Bagley, Cunningham, Duren, Livers and possibly Boeheim and McGruder are just a few of the players who will not take part in the rematch.
But in addition to personnel approaches, my present 76ers Pistons is also guided by a very specific statistic that simply cannot be ignored and is surely familiar to any fan of the Bad Boys …
Because one of the longest current losing streaks in the entire NBA underlies this very matchup.
The Pistons have lost each of the last ten guest games at the Wells Fargo Center – and always in regulation time. The last time was not so long ago and dates back to 22 December – just before Christmas.
Back then, the 76ers won 113-93, but the aforementioned Joel Embiid was the “Man of the Match” that night with 22 points. Without the Cameroonian, the Sixers won’t be quite as strong tonight, but they will also be missing Duren on the opposite side.
While I don’t want to completely rule out the use of Joel Embiid, I personally see him as a bonus! Because if the Head Coach puts him on, that would certainly be welcome, but my 76ers Pistons tip should “work” even without the bulky centre.
For this, I am deliberately resorting to a handicap bet that is not quite so blatant. With the Cameroonian, I would again aim for a win with a 20-point lead.
Given the current circumstances, however, I’m leaning towards a 76ers win by an eight- to 14-point margin against a Pistons team that is shorthanded but has a tendency to surprise on the road.
The leading sports betting providers are also expecting an evening that should not hold any particular surprises. That’s because the 76ers are clearly favoured at 1.19 according to the current betting odds.
I would go along with that by and large. Because nothing that the Pistons presented to me the day before yesterday leads me to believe that they should come up with anything out of the ordinary in the rematch – their win odds of about 4.20 are therefore “fair”.
Conclusion: The 76ers already beat the Pistons the day before yesterday, proving to the critics that they can get by without their number one if need be.
If the Phillies were already successful in this formation a few days ago, the rematch at the Wells Fargo Center should be much easier for them – even if I don’t necessarily expect a dismantling of the guests.
But the fact that the in-form Phillies have won 90% of their last ten home games in general and 100% of their last ten home games against the Bad Boys individually definitely plays into my 76ers Pistons tip.
This one is: Sixers win at HC -6.5.
