Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona, Sunday, June 1, 2025, at 3:00 p.m.
The race of truth is upon us. No other track on the Formula 1 calendar is considered a greater benchmark for the aerodynamic functionality of the car.
With its perfect mix of medium-speed and fast corners and a long straight, the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya reveals all the strengths and weaknesses of the cars.
McLaren is said to have the best overall package, but Max Verstappen pulled away on the last real race track.
I see the world champion back on the podium this weekend. Last week, he just missed out with his Red Bull, but Barcelona should suit Red Bull much better, as the track is considered one of the Austrian racing team’s favorite tracks.
Verstappen has also won here for the last three years and celebrated his first victory on this track. Behind them, Ferrari should battle it out for the remaining places. Despite finishing seventh in qualifying, I see Charles Leclerc ahead of Lewis Hamilton after the race.
For the duel bet, we’re getting really strong odds of 1.80 at Betano. You can also start there with a $20 free bet before your first deposit!
Spain GP start times: TV and stream coverage
The fact that Barcelona will return to its old layout in 2023, with a slower, faster left-hand corner at the start of the third sector, suits Red Bull. The faster tracks have suited the car so far.
Verstappen won in Japan and took pole position in Saudi Arabia, where he was able to keep pace with the McLarens in the race. With the update package from Imola, I believe he is even more capable of putting pressure on the two drivers from the traditional British team.
He will start from third place tomorrow, with Piastri securing pole position ahead of Norris. This means that the top three in the World Championship will start from the first three places in that order.
Oscar Piastri leads the World Championship, but only has a three-point lead over Lando Norris. The latter has regained the upper hand in the team’s internal duel, beating Piastri in Imola with a better strategy and recently winning the classic race in Monte Carlo.
Is Norris out of his mental slump? I still have my doubts, but I’m far from saying that Piastri’s 1.50 odds are a sure thing. Especially not after Verstappen’s strong, clear victory in Italy.
Norris has a win rate of 2.75, and apart from a few race weekends, he has mostly made serious mistakes that have cost him important starting positions and points in the end. He regularly makes mistakes in qualifying in particular.
This was the case again in qualifying in Barcelona, where he ended up a full two tenths off the pace on the short lap.
He also lets himself get rattled more easily, responds to every move Verstappen makes and repeatedly shows signs of self-doubt. This causes him to make more mistakes.
He can no longer afford to do so against an increasingly strong Oscar Piastri, who is not letting up the pressure.
In terms of pace, especially in the race, I still see Norris slightly ahead, but the difference is marginal. I think it’s very likely that we’ll see both McLaren stars on the podium. For this bet, we’re getting odds that are still suitable for a combination bet.
The last 5 races at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya:
I expect Ferrari and Mercedes to follow behind. The Scuderia did well in Monaco, but on normal race tracks they have weaknesses, especially in qualifying, and have to play catch-up in the race.
And Mercedes? The Silver Arrows have been struggling recently, with speed and car reliability not quite right. Russell’s seventh place was the best result so far in this triple-header.
The odds of Russell missing the podium are 1.28, which is just right for a combination bet. The hot temperatures don’t play into his hands at all…
I can also well imagine that we will see at least two retirements again. After all, that has been the case in six of the eight Grands Prix so far. There have been frequent crashes in the snake-like S-passage at the start.
We are also likely to see quite a few wheel-to-wheel duels and ambitious overtaking maneuvers, as passing is anything but easy on the older track. With temperatures of just under 30 degrees Celsius and sunshine, both man and machine will be put to the test.
For drivers under 17.5, we are getting odds of 2.00 at Bet365. Lance Stroll will not start due to wrist problems.
Conclusion: Hamilton is ahead of Leclerc on the grid, but only because Leclerc was only able to make one attempt in Q3. If he had had one more set of soft tires like Hamilton, he would most likely have been ahead of him.
This is because some drivers were able to improve their times significantly in the last few laps. Leclerc feels much more comfortable in the Ferrari and has been the faster of the two Ferrari stars in every race so far in terms of pure pace.
I don’t think it will take the Monegasque long to get past Hamilton. He’s starting on the same side of the grid, right behind him. Only Andrea Kimi Antonelli separates them.
That’s why my Spanish Grand Prix prediction is: Leclerc ahead of Hamilton!
