Grand Prix of Saudi Arabia in Jeddah, Sunday, April 20, 2025, at 7:00 p.m.
Oscar Piastri is the first driver to win two races this season. He has almost completely closed the gap to Lando Norris in the World Championship, as his British teammate only finished third after a poor qualifying session.
Three points currently separate the two hottest contenders in the World Championship, who are also the top favorites for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix according to the odds, and rightly so. The papaya-colored car has been the fastest on every track so far.
In my Saudi Arabian Grand Prix tip, I initially opted for the duel bet that Piastri would beat Norris, as I consider the Australian to be the stronger and, above all, more error-free driver. However, the odds have plummeted after Norris’ crash in qualifying.
Maybe one or two of you jumped on that bandwagon. But now, after qualifying, in which Max Verstappen snatched pole position, I have another hot bet up my sleeve. I don’t think the world champion will be able to repeat his mega lap in the race.
Accordingly, I’m going with the odds at traditional betting provider Oddset that Verstappen won’t win. To do so, I’m selecting the second option in the corresponding winner duel bet, “Verstappen vs. another driver.” That means I’m betting on all 19 other drivers.
Saudi Arabia GP start times: TV and stream broadcast
A serious braking error in the sprint race in China, missing the start box in Bahrain, mistakes in duels and many qualifying weaknesses at crucial moments.
While he attracted attention last year as a weak starter, the nervous Norris is now making more and more mistakes, most recently crashing his McLaren into the barrier in qualifying in Saudi Arabia.
Is he too cerebral for the title? That’s what the Formula 1 world is currently discussing. He already had psychological support during his karting days. What is clear is that he has more self-doubt than others and, in my opinion, too much to compete with the very best.
This is not only evident on the track, but also in interviews: his statements, facial expressions, and gestures speak volumes!
Despite his poor qualifying performance, he was still easily in second place behind Piastri with his car, but he only finished third. We heard criticism again from team boss Andrea Stella, which won’t exactly help Norris’ confidence.
For the bookmakers, the race in Jeddah is now a matter between Piastri (1.80) and Verstappen (2.37). Norris will only start from tenth place.
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Verstappen secured the only non-McLaren victory in Suzuka to date, on a pure Red Bull track where tire wear was not an issue thanks to Pirelli’s tire choice.
This was different in Bahrain and is likely to be more significant again in Saudi Arabia with the much softer tires. The severe tire degradation is just one of many issues facing the Red Bull team, which has not had a good Friday so far.
Qualifying was practically a blind flight every time in terms of car setup.
But if Red Bull is halfway there, Verstappen, who according to all insiders can compensate for two to three tenths per lap compared to all other drivers with his talent, can fight for the win.
However, the gap is currently bigger, and at the same time, Red Bull also had technical problems with Verstappen’s brakes and the pit lights in Bahrain.
In general, there is a mood of crisis at the Austrian racing team, which is likely to lose Verstappen if the big Imola update does not deliver a significant performance boost.
Despite pole position, I am rather pessimistic about the race in Jeddah. Yes, Red Bull rebuilt the car after Friday, but on that day the times with a fueled car were really weak, and then there is the clear disadvantage compared to McLaren in terms of tire management.
Especially since Ferrari, especially with Leclerc, now understands its car better and Mercedes is currently impressing with a very consistent George Russell. They are also likely to put pressure on the superstar of the scene.
The last 4 races at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit:
A Norris is also likely to storm up from behind relatively quickly. Overtaking is very possible on this track, and McLaren’s low tire wear also gives Norris good strategic opportunities to still have a decent race weekend.
Therefore, I don’t think “Super Max” will be able to keep the McLaren drivers behind him. Especially since it should be much harder for him than in Suzuka, where the tires lasted a long time and there were no suitable places to overtake.
And then there’s the issue of the risk of accidents. Crashes have been a common occurrence here in the first races since 2021, as have safety car deployments. One unfortunate timing and the race could take a completely different turn.
Speaking of the safety car, we’re getting odds of 2.50 at Interwetten for at least two appearances by Bernd Mayländer. Incidentally, I’ve noticed that the odds tend to increase towards race Sunday.
Before a two-week break, we have a few drivers who are under pressure and want to prove themselves.
First and foremost is Jack Doohan, who could be driving his last race without a mega performance. Franco Colapinto is champing at the bit and recently completed a private test in Imola for Alpine.
Liam Lawson, Lewis Hamilton, and Carlos Sainz are also still waiting for a GP highlight. Will one of them push beyond the limit in pursuit of a good result and even crash? I wouldn’t rule it out!
In addition, there have been some thrilling wheel-to-wheel duels here in recent years, where a few carbon parts tend to go flying, and if any of them end up on the narrow track, it’s another job for the long-standing German driver of the safety car.
Conclusion: Piastri is the clear favorite to win for me, and his odds are still really good. However, I would hedge my bets with 1.65 for a McLaren victory, as Norris is coming from behind with a lot of anger in his belly and was fast in the long run.
Incidentally, I think his odds of winning are far too high at 11.0. This bet is perfect for one of our free bets! If he doesn’t make any mistakes, he could well be in contention at the front.
In my opinion, Verstappen is unlikely to be able to keep up with McLaren over the distance, despite the optimization of the car’s setup. And even if something goes wrong for both McLaren drivers, it could still be close against Russell and Leclerc.
There are a few who I think are capable of spoiling Verstappen’s Grand Prix success.
That’s why my betting tip is: Verstappen won’t win!
