Monaco Grand Prix, Sunday, May 25, 2025, 3:00 p.m.
My absolute favorite Formula 1 race is just around the corner, and no, I don’t mean that ironically. Yes, with the current generation of cars, we see virtually no overtaking maneuvers, but on this street circuit, the wheat is separated from the chaff among the drivers.
The drivers race along the Monte Carlo guard rails at almost 300 km/h, separated by millimeters. And this season promises to be even more exciting than in previous years, as the FIA has come up with a very special rule for the street race.
From 2025, at least two mandatory pit stops must be made in the principality – which of course also influences my Monaco Grand Prix tip.
This change was made after the last race, which was rather dull. Due to a red flag after a crash at the start, all drivers were able to change their tires, and they crossed the finish line in the same order, lined up like a string of pearls.
Therefore, the tires now have to be changed twice, but that could also cause a lot of chaos. Perhaps some drivers will change their tires twice during a safety car phase. A backmarker might benefit from a risky strategy.
In any case, it will be harder than usual for the pole-setter to secure victory. That’s why I’m curious to see the odds Bwin will offer before the start on whether the man in pole position will win the GP.
In my Monaco GP tip, I’m going to bet that we won’t see a virtual safety car. We’ve rarely seen one in recent years, because Bernd Mayländer usually comes out with the real thing! You can find the odds at Interwetten.
Monaco GP start times: TV and stream
2022 was the last time we saw a brief virtual safety car phase at the Monaco Grand Prix, when Mick Schumacher crashed his Haas, prompting race control to send out the real thing to catch the field.
It hasn’t been this uncertain for a long time. Since Rui Marques took over as race director, these kinds of decisions have been clearer, and in Monaco there are really very few scenarios in which only the virtual safety car is appropriate.
This slows the field down, but not as much as when a car is leading the way. In short, the VSC is only used for minor incidents or debris/wrecks that are far from the ideal line.
None of that is possible in Monaco. So I’m going to go for an unconventional bet and say that the VSC won’t be used!
Who is actually the favorite going into the race in the streets of Monaco? We don’t have a clear favorite ahead of the eighth race of the world championship. Especially not since Max Verstappen broke McLaren’s dominance last week in Imola with his revamped Red Bull.
But was this success just a flash in the pan? That will only become clear in the next few races, and not in Monaco, a track that has its own rules. Oscar Piastri leads the field at 2.75 ahead of Lando Norris (3.10) and Max Verstappen (3.50).
I’m definitely staying away from betting, but if I did, I’d go for some of the higher odds with free bets from Winamax, NEO.bet, VBET and the like, such as 7.25 for local hero Charles Leclerc, 17.0 for George Russell or 21.0 for Lewis Hamilton.
After all, due to the two-stop rule, we can’t completely rule out the possibility of seeing a totally bizarre race winner. For the clear underdogs who aren’t driving one of the top cars, we have odds of 101 to 2001.
Yes, you read that right, a win for Oliver Bearman, Nico Hülkenberg or Gabriel Bortoleto would mean a €200 profit on a €1 bet! The German veteran, who lives in Monaco, knows the track particularly well.
There are really a number of scenarios in which one of the many underdogs could win. Two stops during the safety car phase, taking advantage of a lucky red phase at the end of the race, and so on. What the driver in first place does will also be a decisive factor.
Will he – as is so often the case – crawl around the track so that the drivers behind him can’t attempt an undercut due to the traffic?
If that’s the case and a backmarker has already changed tires twice during a safety car period, the tide can turn very quickly at the front!
The last 5 races at the Circuit de Monaco:
The weather could also play a role. Although there is currently zero percent chance of rain, the weather can change quickly on the Mediterranean coast. We saw how a race in Monaco can end in 1996. Back then, only four cars made it to the finish line!
But even on a dry track, I expect a few retirements, especially as we have a lot of rookies in the field who are driving a Formula 1 car for the first time on the most demanding circuit.
For under 18.5 drivers in the final standings, we are already getting 1.63 at Bet365, and for under 17.5 drivers, we are talking about 3.25 odds at Bet365, where you can deposit and withdraw money in a flash via PayPal.
As I find it difficult to predict the winner in advance, I think the bet at odds of 2.10 that at least no McLaren will win the Grand Prix is not bad.
Norris has never particularly struck me as a street circuit specialist, and he himself emphasizes that his car is fast but not easy to drive. In addition, he has frequently made mistakes in qualifying this season and even crashed in Jeddah.
He is under pressure in the internal team battle and doesn’t seem to be able to cope with it at the moment, so I don’t expect him to take the final risk needed to win in Monaco.
So I see the 2.10 odds as almost a head-to-head bet on Piastri vs. everyone else – and the odds are really outstanding for that. I have Verstappen, Leclerc, and Russell on my list here.
We should never write off Lewis Hamilton in the principality either, as he has the most wins of any current driver with three in Monaco!
Conclusion: I’m really looking forward to one of the most traditional races in Formula 1. The rule change could make it really interesting. I’m curious to see what strategies the engineers have come up with.
But it’s almost impossible to plan anything in Monaco. Bernd Mayländer usually ends up driving his safety car around the track several times because there’s been a crash somewhere.
The virtual safety car has only been used once since 2018, because the real one is called out immediately due to the dangerous situation in the narrow streets, or the red flag is waved straight away. That’s why I’m going for the following odds:
My Monaco GP tip: No virtual safety car!
