Betting odds, tip, forecast & preview for the Mexican Grand Prix in Mexico City, Sunday, 07.11.2021 at 20:00
The final five races are upon us and the air at the top is starting to thin.
But that is just one of the difficulties that not only Lewis Hamilton but the entire field of drivers will have to overcome at the Mexican Grand Prix.
Because at an altitude of 2,300 metres, the race in Mexico City is not only a spectacle, but also a challenge for man and machine.
Nevertheless, contrary to the bookmakers’ odds, I believe in my Formula 1 prediction that Mercedes will come out on top in the end and that Hamilton will take the win.
Max Verstappen is now 12 points ahead of the Mercedes driver after the Austin GP, which Red Bull won thanks to a tactical coup. And in Mexico, too, Verstappen has the edge, at least on paper.
Because the track at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is a Red Bull track. This is mainly because the Bolide performs better than the rest of the field.
This is because the high altitude air means that the larger Honda turbocharger fitted to Red Bull’s RB16B comes into its own.
The thinner air means the engines suck less oxygen from the air than on other tracks. The turbocharger compensates for this loss. The larger turbocharger in the Honda engine means Verstappen and Perez make more power on the track.
This was evident in the second and third free practice sessions when Red Bull dominated, leaving Mercedes a whopping four tenths behind. But although Mexico is seen as a Red Bull track, Mercedes lead the statistics with 3-2 wins.
In the final Grand Prix of 2019, the two rivals went toe-to-toe after the first few metres with the better end for Hamilton, who took the win and – as in previous years – the title.
Hamilton still can’t take the title this Sunday. But the Mercedes driver could take a decisive step in the right direction. The bookies are offering attractive odds of around 2.40 for another success.
After the surprising qualifying, this is not at all unlikely. Although Red Bull was considered to be the big favourite, Bottas and Hamilton took first and second place ahead of Verstappen with a convincing performance.
The Red Bull drivers showed nerves, had big problems with the car and did not deliver the best performance. Mercedes took advantage, led by Valteri Bottas, who set the best time of the weekend so far with 1:15.
The problems with the tyres and the wobbling rear were not noticeable at all for the team with the star. However, the supposed advantages of the Red Bull car were just as unnoticeable.
Qualifying has rendered many race predictions obsolete. Because looking at the Formula 1 bets for the Mexican Grand Prix, Verstappen is only a slight favourite at the bookmakers with a German licence, with odds of around 2.25.
Valteri Bottas, on the other hand, despite pole position, is getting odds of around 6.00. I also believe that first place will be decided between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen.
Nevertheless, the track set-up could play a decisive role. Because with the thin air at altitude, the cars have less grip on the track. On top of that, there are problems cooling down the brakes. As a result, there were a few spins in practice and qualifying.
Also in qualifying, Stroll crashed into the barrier as a result of a driver error, and Perez also braked and had to abandon his chase for pole. That’s why I think at least three cars will retire.
Summary: Qualifying showed all the fascination of Formula 1. In practice, Red Bull dominated and was already considered the favourite for the race. But the advantages of the cars were clearly on the side of Mercedes in qualifying.
I expect a similar picture in the race. There will be intense duels between Red Bull and Mercedes. But in the end, if Hamilton has his car under control as he did in qualifying, he will use all his class to take the third victory.
My betting tip is therefore quite clearly: Hamilton will win
