Mexico Grand Prix in Mexico City, Sunday, 30.10.2022
It’s down to the final three races in this Formula One season, with the next spectacles coming in Mexico and Brazil after the USA GP.
The Scuderia have not won a race since the Austrian GP. That has to change and Mercedes, still without a win this year, also wants to triumph at least once.
But that will be anything but easy. For one thing, Sergio Perez has an absolute home game in Mexico, and for another, Verstappen wants to get his 14th race win.
With his current form and the perfect car, the Dutchman is also the bookmakers’ sole favourite to win the race, with odds of around 1.61.
Leclerc doesn’t play a big role with odds of around 26.00 and I also don’t really believe in Ferrari in my Formula 1 forecast for the Mexican Grand Prix.
You can read why I believe Mercedes will perform in Mexico in my detailed race preview.
60th anniversary of the Mexico GP – this weekend could be historic not only for the track, but also for Max Verstappen.
The Dutchman could break the record of Michael Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel, who both once won 13 races in one season. The conditions for this could not be better at the moment.
The new world champion is currently in top form, makes no mistakes and, starting from pole, has the best prerequisites for the next victory.
In addition, the Red Bull car already had a small advantage in Mexico last year due to the thinner air conditions.
Due to the thinner air, the engines suck in less oxygen from the air than on other tracks.
The turbocharger compensates for this loss. The bigger turbocharger in the Honda engine gives Verstappen and Perez more power.
While there are big differences between Red Bull and their rivals in terms of performance this season, both Ferrari and Mercedes have been able to catch up in recent races.
Although decisive seconds are still missing to Red Bull, Charles Leclerc is satisfied with the development of the car in the last races.
The weekend in Austin also showed that the two racing teams can make life difficult for Red Bull with the right upgrades.
Mercedes, who were one of the few teams to bring an aero update, were also in contention for victory for a long time. The goal this season is clear: to knock Ferrari off second place.
There is a 53-point gap between the Silver Arrows and the Scuderia and I also believe that it could be difficult to win a race.
However, the Mercedes were surprisingly strong in the QF. This is also due to the fact that the track in Mexico demands maximum downforce, which the Mercedes car brings.
Verstappen ended up in P1, just ahead of Russell and Hamilton, and benefited from a mistake by the young Mercedes driver.
Nevertheless, the race could be crowned with success for both Mercedes drivers from P2 and P3 in Mexico. The updates fit and the track seems to suit the car.
That is why there are relatively low odds of around 1.57 for a top-3 finish for Hamilton at Formula 1 betting providers such as Bet365 Bet.
For Ferrari, on the other hand, it’s less about the fight against Mercedes, but rather against Sergio Perez. At least for Charles Leclerc, who wants to defend second place in the drivers’ standings against the Mexican.
Two points separate the two rivals, but Perez has home advantage this weekend. In Mexico last year, he was the first Mexican to finish in P3 to loud cheers.
Nevertheless, in the H2H comparison I see Leclerc further ahead due to the performance of the last races and would therefore complete the podium with a Ferrari driver alongside Hamilton and Verstappen.
German bookmakers are offering odds of around 2.75 for a top-3 finish for the Monegasque, while Perez is getting lower odds of around 1.72.
Another battle, less about winning the race and more about finishing behind the top 3, is still going on between Alpine and McLaren.
After Alonso initially got a penalty in Austin because of his broken car and thus lost seventh place, he got it back after protesting.
So Alpine is still 10 points ahead of McLaren and yet the battle in the midfield is getting tighter. This was also shown by the qualifying, where Norris was able to secure P8 directly in front of the two Alpine drivers.
But also Aston Martin, at the beginning of the season still called a tractor, drove regularly in the top 10 in the last races. The pace is suddenly right and the updates are taking effect.
Although both drivers were knocked out in Q1 and will start at the back of the field, a top 10 finish is still possible, at least for Vettel, whose form has been on the up recently.
The last 5 races at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez:
For Sebastian Vettel, who is without question still one of the most experienced and best drivers in the field, there are odds of around 1.95 for a place in the top 10.
From a track point of view, this track is a mixture of fast and medium fast corners, with a 1.3km straight that is very good for overtaking.
Normally, not so many cars drop out here and yet, like last year, there can be close duels.
On race day itself, I expect few technical failures as well as race accidents and therefore predict that at least 17 cars will reach the finish.
For more than 16.5 cars finishing, Betano Sportwetten offers comparatively low odds of around 1.50.
Summary: Although the World Championship has been decided, there is still something at stake for all teams.
Whether it’s records or the battle for second and third places, the Formula One season is far from over.
Of course, Verstappen and Red Bull have advantages again this year, especially in Mexico, because of their engine.
However, qualifying showed that the track seems to suit the Silver Arrows very well. Verstappen took pole, partly due to a mistake by Russell.
But the maximlae downforce on the track, the updates of the team and the apparently optimal set-up of the car could bring both Mercedes on the podium.
My tip for the Mexico GP: Double podium Mercedes.
