Japanese Grand Prix in Suzka, Sunday, 06.04.2025 at 07:00 a.m.
After a two-week break, Formula 1 continues with the Japanese Grand Prix. At the traditional Suzuka circuit, which is one of the drivers’ absolute favorite tracks, it will be shown whether McLaren will continue to outpace the competition.
Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have won the first two races. The Briton leads the World Championship with eight points ahead of Max Verstappen and his team-mate. The defending champion is traveling to the third Grand Prix of the year with a new teammate.
Liam Lawson had to vacate his cockpit after two disastrous race weekends and swap places with Yuki Tsunoda. The Japanese driver is thus promoted to the big sister team for his home race, while Lawson is expected to find his way back to his old strength in the Racing Bull.
The driver swap is hotly debated. Should Lawson have been given more time? Others claim that with significantly more F1 experience, Tsunoda should have been given the cockpit anyway, and not the New Zealander, who has not even competed in a full season at the pinnacle of motorsport.
How Tsunoda will perform at Red Bull is one of the key questions at the weekend. He did well in training, but he didn’t perform in qualifying and only came in 15th. Pole was secured by team-mate Verstappen with a mega lap.
In my Japan GP betting tip, in which I present you with the best Formula 1 bets from Bet365 and Co., I am particularly tempted by the bet that Piastri will reach the top 2 in Suzuka after his victory in China. McLaren should make the difference in the race.
Japan GP start times: broadcast on TV and stream
It remains to be seen whether Piastri can stand up to Norris over the entire season. In the end, it is likely to be the two drivers who will decide the title between them. McLaren showed over the course of the last weekend that when they get everything out of their package, the British are in a league of their own.
I expect the same in Japan with three training sessions. Although we are once again on a completely different type of track, the team has already proven in the preseason that it can shine on any track with the all-round car.
Norris is also favored by our PayPal betting providers with odds of 2.20, but is closely followed by pole setter Verstappen (3.20). Behind them lurks Piastri (3.75).
Or will the weather once again add a little spice? Rain is forecast for Sunday. Whether, when and how intense it will come remains to be seen, but it could well shake up the field on this difficult circuit.
According to current forecasts, it should stop raining by 1 p.m. local time at the latest, with the race starting at 2 p.m. (7 a.m. CEST).
Ultimately, the opening round in Melbourne showed that if you feel comfortable with your car, you can really show decent pace on a wet track with a lot of confidence in the car. Norris and Piastri were in a league of their own.
So I’m not worried that rain will jeopardize the Piastri bet. However, he made another mistake at his home race that ultimately cost him the podium. But we see few of those from the driver, who is in his third season.
Ultimately, the opening race in Melbourne showed that those who feel comfortable with their car can show good pace on a wet track with a lot of confidence in their car. Norris and Piastri were in a league of their own.
So I’m not worried that rain will jeopardize the Piastri bet. However, he made another mistake at his home race that ultimately cost him the podium. But we see few of those from the driver, who is in his third season.
Whether dry or wet – I think a safety car is very likely. We still have five rookies in the field, some drivers in new teams and a track that doesn’t forgive mistakes.
Anyone who goes off course often ends up directly in the gravel trap or in the barrier. The safety car deployment can be hinted at, for example, at Interwetten at odds of 1.50.
Because in addition to the curbs, there are hardly any run-off zones, but mainly lawns. That’s why Suzuka is also considered a real driver’s track, where the pilot can make an even bigger difference.
The last 5 races at the Suzuka International Racing Course:
Another strong Japan GP quote is the 2.50 for “Under 17.5 drivers in the final classification”.
A starting collision with two drivers, which we have seen here very often in the fast double right, could be enough.
Last year, 17 riders saw the checkered flag, in 2023 there were only 15. By the way, Interwetten is offering a odds boost for Piastri’s victory. The odds have been raised from 3.80 to 4.10.
Another bet I have my eye on: Nico Hülkenberg trumps his teammate Gabriel Bortoleto. The only 20-year-old Brazilian has only driven on the difficult track in the simulator, a clear disadvantage in terms of experience!
Hülkenberg was also the faster driver in the first two world championship races, but he damaged the underbody of his car due to a mistake at the start last weekend in China and in the end he came off second best.
But as with Piastri, mistakes are also the exception for the “Hulk”. For us, they are good news in view of the now higher odds.
Conclusion: McLaren should again take the first two places. I expect a close fight between Norris and Piastri.
Verstappen is likely to struggle more with the tires after pole and a likely dry track. For pole, he went to the absolute limit, not even knowing in various corners whether he would get it at all.
In race trim and after the poor long runs on Friday, I am skeptical despite the changes to his RB21, and Piastri is currently performing very consistently. Therefore, it will be the following bet from the Bet365 app.
My betting tip: Piastri makes it into the top 2.
