Saudi Grand Prix in Jeddah, Saturday, 09.03.2024
The Formula 1 teams are all significantly faster than last year, but nothing has really changed in the pecking order of the top teams. At most, Max Verstappen and Red Bull could be even more dominant in 2024.
After the first of 24 world championship races, the “Flying Dutchman” is already receiving congratulations from all sides for the next title. It would be the exceptional talent’s fourth in a row, a feat previously achieved by Sebastian Vettel with the Austrian racing team from 2010 to 2013
Red Bull Racing is currently at the center of Formula 1, because as boring as the action at the top is, it is just as intense off the track. Everything continues to revolve around the topic of Christian Horner and the female employee who has made allegations against the long-standing successful team boss.
Meanwhile, rumors are circulating that the Verstappen clan could move to Mercedes despite their continued dominance due to the team’s internal problems. It would certainly be good for the excitement if the best vehicle designer Adrian Newey did not also go to the Silver Arrows.
In my Saudi Arabia GP prediction this week, the choice is easy. Red Bull didn’t even have to show everything in Bahrain to score a one-two. In addition to Verstappen, his team-mate is therefore likely to jump onto the podium again in Jeddah. The right odds are waiting at Betano.
The lead was gigantic, Verstappen crossed the finish line with a lead of over 20 seconds. After the start phase alone, he took almost a second per lap from every driver. As the gap at the chequered flag shows, Red Bull hadn’t even turned up the heat…
The team, which has been spoiled by success in recent years and won 22 out of 23 world championship races last season alone, did not even have to call up its true potential
In my opinion, the odds of 1.25 offered by the best Formula 1 betting providers for Verstappen’s success are still far too high.
After all, the dominance, the gap is even greater than in 2023 – and Verstappen alone had already won 20 out of 23 races.
I would say that betting fans who back Verstappen to win every race should end the 2024 season with a tidy profit. Apart from Perez (9.00), all other opponents have double-digit or higher odds to win!
While the direct Red Bull pursuers were moping after the Bahrain GP, Nico Hülkenberg was generally in a positive mood. After a minor collision at the start, the race was practically over without a safety car.
But the Haas is much more competitive this year than in 2023. Last season, the driver from Emmerich was repeatedly among the top 10 in qualifying, but was regularly left behind in race trim due to a lack of pace and high tire wear
Things looked much better at the 2024 season opener. Team-mate Kevin Magnussen, who was well behind Hülkenberg both in qualifying and with his race pace, but did not have a crash, was able to fight for the points.
Without the hullabaloo at the start, however, it would probably not have been enough for Hülkenberg to score points either, but this was also due to the fact that none of the top five teams – Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Aston Martin – retired or had more serious problems
Just how far away these teams are from the rest of the field was shown by Stroll, who, like Hülkenberg, had to pit due to the contact, but was still able to move up to tenth place without any problems.
However, it is a rarity for all the drivers from the top teams to come through so well. Incidentally, the Bahrain GP was the first season opener in Formula 1 history without a retirement!
Regarding Hülkenberg’s strong lap times, the 1.55 for a duel victory against his team-mate is an outstanding bet at Oddset
The last 5 races on the Jeddah Corniche Circuit:
In Saudi Arabia, things are likely to be different. While the drivers were on a very wide track with wide run-off areas in Bahrain, in Jeddah they will now be on a narrow street circuit with walls next to the kerbs and smoother asphalt.
It becomes more slippery and mistakes are punished immediately. So a case for an under-driver-to-finish quota? That depends on the line offered. At Interwetten, for example, I’m clearly leaning towards over 16.5 drivers at the finish at 1.60.
I don’t expect more than three drivers to retire. Especially as there are no inexperienced rookies in the field, because another novelty: for the first time, Formula 1 is running with exactly the same driver field as in 2023. There hasn’t even been a driver swap between the teams
A look at the last races in Jeddah is of course a must. The good news for all neutral Formula 1 fans first. Verstappen has only won one of the three previous editions of the Saudi Arabian GP.
In 2021, Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton fought an epic battle over the entire race in the penultimate round of the World Championship, which the Briton won in the end. In 2022, Verstappen competed with Charles Leclerc for the 25 points, with the Dutchman coming out on top.
And in 2023? Perez, who also completed the podium in 2022, felt very comfortable on the fast street circuit. However, he also benefited from the fact that Verstappen was not in the best physical condition after a stomach bug in 2023 and had to retire in Q2 due to a technical defect and start from the back of the grid
Conclusion: Yes, Perez benefited from Verstappen’s bad luck last year, but he still feels comfortable in Jeddah, having finished on the podium the last two years. Red Bull secured an unchallenged one-two victory at the season opener.
Although the Mexican occasionally has problems in qualifying, he should be able to finish in the top three on the long straights with the powerful Red Bull in race trim, even with a weak starting position.
Therefore, despite the superiority in the season opener, I am still pleased about the surprisingly high 1.62 odds at Betano, where there is a free 20 euro bet as a welcome gift for all new customers with no deposit!
My Saudi Arabia GP tip: Perez will finish on the podium
