U.S. Grand Prix in Miami, Sunday, 07.05.2023
The first of three races in the USA will take place in Miami. For the second time, the Formula 1 circus makes a guest appearance in the Sunshine State and the big question is: Will Red Bull dominate again?
The world champion team is once again in a league of its own this season – the two RB drivers currently hold the world championship exclusively between themselves.
But Verstappen is nowhere near as dominant as he was last year. After race wins, it’s 2:2 between the world champion and his teammate Perez.
That’s why I also believe in my Miami GP prediction that the two Red Bulls will dominate, but the Scuderia could be the laughing third.
Because already in Baku Ferrari won the sprint as well as the qualifying. That’s why I see Ferrari as the Bulls’ toughest rival in my analysis.
It’s going to be hot this weekend at the Miami Grand Prix. However, not only because of the temperatures, but also because Max Verstappen – it seems – has a real challenger this year in Sergio Perez.
The Mexican has already claimed two victories. With another success, he could even take the lead in the world championship.
But the bookmakers still see Verstappen as the clear favorite to win, with odds of around 1.45 over Perez, who has odds of around 3.75.
Verstappen already showed that he can do Miami last year, when the Dutchman got the better end of a duel with Leclerc.
The Ferraris, on the other hand, are expecting a lot from the update for Miami. After all, Maranello is still puzzling over why Leclerc and Co. are usually very strong in qualifying, but then can’t get the pace on the track.
A new underbody should close the gap to Red Bull somewhat, but the really big updates won’t come until later in the season.
However, I strongly expect Leclerc and Sainz to finish in the top six, as the Ferraris were able to keep up at times in Baku, and Leclerc even managed to finish on the podium.
Mercedes is even further behind Red Bull and Aston Martin has always been on the podium so far this season and finished a respectable fourth in Baku, but I would still see the team just behind Ferrari.
For both drivers of the Scuderia under the best 6 Bet365 bets offers odds of around 1.72, which in my opinion is set too low.
The question will be how well Ferrari gets its tire wear under control. In Miami, with the hot temperatures and a new asphalt compound, the impact on the tires could be more massive than at many other tracks.
This in turn brings up Mercedes, which is on a par with Ferrari and Aston Martin, and currently sits in third place in the WRC with 76 points.
Nevertheless, the Silver Arrow is not yet where Toto Wolff would like it to be. Too many setup problems have already made life difficult for Hamilton and Russell this season.
But it won’t be much easier in Miami – for Mercedes in particular and for Formula 1 in general.
The DRS zones on the Miami International Circuit have been shortened by over 50 meters, making overtaking maneuvers even more difficult.
The last races on the Miami Internationale Circuit:
Already in Baku, overtaking was more than difficult, so already drivers like Lewis Hamilton emphasized the lack of excitement factor.
It will also be exciting to see how the surprise team of the season so far, Aston Martin, performs in the first USA race. After all, the team is in second place in the Constructors’ World Championship, ahead of Ferrari and Mercedes.
Although the GP in Baku did not go optimally for the Aston Martins due to DRS problems, the AMR23 is the car with the lowest tire wear in the field, which could still become a decisive advantage.
In addition to the new asphalt, the weather conditions could also play a major role. While it is supposed to stay dry on Saturday at the QF, it is supposed to rain already on Sunday.
Together with the track, which is very similar to the one in Baku, I think there will be a few retirements even without rain.
Since the new generation of cars already had a higher retirement rate last season, and also this season at least two drivers didn’t see the checkered flag in every race, I think even more drivers will retire in Miami this time.
However, betting that less than 16 riders will finish is also a bit more risky, as evidenced by the odds at Happybet betting with a value of around 2.10.
Conclusion: It will be relatively clear that the two Red Bulls are the big favorites at the Miami GP. The gap to the rest of the field is too big, so I predict a battle between Verstappen and Perez in the race.
Still, it remains to be seen what Ferrari’s update will bring and how close it will bring the Scuderia to Red Bull. I don’t think Ferrari is without a chance, especially in qualifying, despite the tire problems.
But I’m also curious to see how well Aston Martin’s tire management works and expect Alonso and Stroll to come out on top in the battle with Mercedes.
Of course, Red Bull is also the favorite in qualifying, but I still trust Ferrari to have the faster lap in Miami with similar track characteristics.
That’s why my betting tip is: Ferrari takes pole.
