Grand Prix Japan in Suzuka, Sunday, 24.09.2023
The winning streak is broken! In Singapore, Carlos Sainz was the first driver not from the Red Bull team to win. But in Japan, the Austrian racing team made an impressive comeback.
Max Verstappen dominated the practice sessions and took pole. Everything speaks for the early win of the Constructors’ World Championship in Japan. The third drivers’ title for the Dutchman is also only a matter of time.
On the fast circuit of Japan he convinced both on one lap and in the long run with more fuel on board. His win rate has therefore slipped into the 1.20 odds range, just like in the races before.
After the dominators’ debacle in Singapore, the oddsmakers were still cautious for Japan. Verstappen win odds of over 1.50 beckoned for sports betting fans.
But don’t worry, in my Formula 1 Japan GP tip I’ll introduce you to some other strong odds for Sunday’s race.
Red Bull feared even before the race weekend in Singapore that their winning streak on that street circuit could be snapped. The reason is that the circuit in the Southeast Asian tropics is a track type in itself.
And Fernando Alonso was already close to the high-flyer Verstappen on the street circuit in Monaco. The team had predicted it correctly and in the end had to be satisfied with a fifth place for the Dutchman.
The team, which in Adrian Newey has the most successful car designer in the history of the sport at its side, struggled with a lack of grip and driveability from the usually dominant Red Bull.
With Suzuka, Formula 1 returns to a permanent circuit and also to the original pecking order at the top of the field. Verstappen grabs pole by over half a second
For the Monegasque, this weekend is about prestige and his role in the team. After all, Leclerc once disinherited Sebastian Vettel as team leader at Ferrari.
After the summer break, he is now feeling the team-internal pressure from Carlos Sainz, who had finished ahead of him in all three races.
In Singapore, Leclerc even had to drive extra slowly for the Spaniard to give him enough of a lead in the pit lane ahead of the competition.
As a result, he had to give away his second place and, in the end, the podium. From a pure pace point of view, Leclerc is considered the stronger driver, especially on a lap he is strong, considered one of the best qualifiers in the premier class.
After all, he takes a high risk every time, which has already secured him 20 poles, but also brought him various accidents.
In any case, I trust Leclerc to be able to fight back on a more classic circuit like Suzuka. In qualifying, he clearly prevailed over his team-mate.
Ferrari will not only have a thrilling intra-team battle on their hands in this race, however, but will also be looking to McLaren’s performance.
The British team is still the surprise of the season, after all Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri drove at the tail end of the field at the beginning of the year. But the team around Zak Brown, Andrea Stella and Co. has made quantum leaps in vehicle development.
As a result, the drivers in the orange racers are currently second or third at every circuit. The McLaren start just ahead of Ferrari. In general, I expect the drivers of both teams to finish in the top 6.
The last 5 races at the Suzuka Circuit:
For Ferrari, there’s a lucrative 1.90 at Betano. The McLaren’s 1.33, on the other hand, is not worth it. The risk of failure is too high for that, given the low odds.
Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari are the strong forces this weekend. Mercedes struggled in qualifying and also with more fuel in the car. Lewis Hamilton and George Russells only start from seventh and eighth.
Alexander Albon is also a man for the points on Sunday with odds of 1.80. The Williams driver finished in the top eleven five times in the last six races, taking countable points three times.
He starts the race from 13th place, but can certainly move up with a clever strategy. After all, the Williams is one of the fastest cars on the straights and overtaking is damn hard at Suzuka.
As the circuit in Japan is one of the most demanding on the racing calendar, a safety car deployment is also very likely.
After all, the track does not forgive mistakes in many places. There are not asphalt run-off zones everywhere, but slippery grass, gravel beds and barriers.
Therefore, the Betano ratio of 1.62 is also a recommendation that Bernd Mayländer will reel off laps again. The “Under 17.5 drivers at the finish” bet from Interwetten at 2.60 is also worth considering.
Conclusion: Verstappen should win the race in Japan, only technology can slow him down. With the strong longrun pace, I also expect Perez on the podium. His podium rate of 1.65 definitely has value given the RB dominance.
However, Norris and Piastri are also very strong this weekend and unlike Perez are a unit with the car. And Ferrari could also have a say in the podium.
Mercedes, on the other hand, are stumbling in Suzuka, starting only from seventh and eighth and then there’s the matter of low top speed. Even if Hamilton and Russell have a slightly better race pace, they are unlikely to get past the Ferraris, McLaren and Red Bulls.
However, the numbers do not support this at the moment. After all, the team with the star on its car was slower in qualifying and in the long runs. That’s why I’m happy that we get great odds from Interwetten for the following bet.
My Formula 1 Japan GP tip: Both Mercedes in the top 6? No!
