Japan Grand Prix in Suzuka, Sunday, 07.04.2024
At least one forecast for the season has already been missed by many experts, and quite early. Quite a few expected Max Verstappen and Red Bull to win all the races. But the Red Bulls’ run of success came to an end at the third Grand Prix.
A problem with the right rear brake led to a technical retirement for the Dutchman at the Australian GP. Team-mate Sergio Perez also struggled, with the car set-up in particular making life difficult for him. The beneficiary of the Red Bull blunder was Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz
The Spaniard wants to go on the attack again at the Japanese GP and prove himself for a cockpit in 2025. After all, the driver who bagged the last two non-Red Bull victories is still without a contract for the coming season. As is well known, his Ferrari seat will be taken by Lewis Hamilton.
In general, there is a great battle for the podium places in the premier class of motorsport. In my Japan GP betting tip, however, I expect a clear number for the Austrian racing team. The top 3 odds for Perez are temptingly high at Bwin
The Suzuka International Circuit is one of the favorite tracks of many drivers. With its many fast and medium-fast sections, the circuit creates a good flow. Elevation differences, grass and gravel make the track even more challenging.
In any case, aerodynamic downforce plays an immense role. Red Bull is the lone leader in this respect and has already celebrated several successes on the circuit in the past. But is the team still so dominant? Or has Ferrari come closer?
After Ferrari’s one-two victory in Australia, which Perez was unable to prevent after Verstappen’s retirement, opinions differ. The Scuderia definitely took a step forward, but also made perfect use of the conditions in Melbourne.
I’m sure that the old pecking order will be restored on Sunday. Red Bull will not only be able to clinch a victory, but also another unchallenged one-two, as they did in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Verstappen and Perez in first and second place have strong 2.40 odds at Bwin!
Verstappen again has by far the lowest win odds of all the drivers, in the 1.20 range. Behind him comes nothing for a long time, then team-mate Perez with odds in the double-digit range, followed by Ferrari drivers Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz.
It remains to be seen how far Ferrari is away from Red Bull in Suzuka, but the Italians have already established themselves as the second strongest team. However, Interwetten still has playable odds for Sainz and Charles Leclerc in the top 6
The 1.53 for Red Bull’s fastest race lap is also a good choice. If Verstappen and Perez pull away at the front as they did in the first two races of the season, an extra stop for fresh tires at the end of the race to secure the point for the fastest lap is not unlikely.
In addition, Interwetten is currently offering an interesting free bet promotion for new and existing customers. Alongside Red Bull and Ferrari, I currently see McLaren as the third force. Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris were also not far away from Ferrari in Melbourne recently
Both McLaren cars in the top 6 have odds of 1.83 at Interwetten. So the betting providers are not entirely sure, which is also down to Mercedes. The Silver Arrow is a miracle bag this season, the car is extremely susceptible to external influences.
Lewis Hamilton expressed himself drastically before the Japanese GP. The car feels different in every single corner. With this inconsistency, it is difficult for the two British drivers to go to the limit in order to exploit their true potential
The last 5 races at the Suzuka International Circuit:
McLaren achieved a double podium in Japan last year. The track suits the car, so the 1.83 for the double top six result is definitely top. Meanwhile, things are likely to be more difficult for Nico Hülkenberg.
In any case, it is clear that there is only a chance of finishing in the points if a driver from one of the top five teams retires. In Japan, the driver from Emmerich, who has scored points twice in a row, will once again have to hope for a dust-up. But will Haas even be able to slip into the role of first pursuer?
According to Hülkenberg, the team still has room for improvement in the sections that matter most in Suzuka. Therefore, I would keep an eye on the odds for race Sunday, watch the price of the non-top 10 bet at Bet365
From experience, the weather can have an influence on the outcome of the race, especially in Suzuka. The initial forecasts pointed to rain on Sunday. If it does turn out to be wet, betting on a safety car phase is a good option.
The risk of accidents on the already very demanding track is then significantly higher. And the safety car is likely to be deployed in almost every crash due to the poorer visibility in the rain. I can even find 2.40 odds for over 1.5 SC phases in the best sports betting apps.
Conclusion: While Hülkenberg has to hope for retirements, in my opinion, the only question at the top is by what margin Verstappen will win this time. Suzuka is absolute Red Bull country.
The defending constructors’ champion already proved last season that it can come back stronger than ever after a setback. That’s why I’m not only confident that Verstappen will win, but also that Perez will finish on the podium at this circuit.
