Hungarian Grand Prix in Budapest, Sunday, 31.07.2022
The last race before the summer break in Formula 1 is upon us and things are heating up in the paddock. Sebastian Vettel will end his career in Formula 1 after 15 years. The German had his most successful time with Red Bull.
Max Verstappen wants to repeat exactly this successful era of 4 titles in a row. With a current 63-point gap to Charles Leclerc, the world champion has the best chances of becoming Formula 1’s best again.
If the bookmakers have their way, he already is, as his odds on winning the title again are around 1.20. But there are still a few races to go in which Leclerc can fight his way back to the top of the drivers’ standings. If the Monegasque wins the title, the odds would still be around 5.50.
In my Formula 1 forecast for the Hungarian Grand Prix, I also expect the Ferrari driver to perform better than last weekend. At least as far as qualifying is concerned, however, that is hardly possible. You can find out why Leclerc will be on pole at the Hungaroring, as he was last time at Le Castellet, in my preview of the race
Eight pole positions and seven retirements, that is the impressive but also sobering record of the Ferrari drivers in this year’s season. The car is finally impressively fast again and yet difficult to handle.
That is also why the gap between Ferrari and Red Bull is now so wide and could become even wider ahead of the Hungarian Grand Prix. Because Max Verstappen and Red Bull are currently doing very little wrong and are running with total aplomb.
Nevertheless, the bookies once again do not see the Dutchman as the favourite for the Hungarian Grand Prix with odds of around 2.35.
Possibly because last week it became clear that Leclerc, if he had remained without mistakes, could have crowned the weekend. Because it is now well known that there is no way around the Ferraris in qualifying.
Especially not Leclerc himself, who with odds of around 1.72 is also the favourite for pole this time. But in the race it has mostly looked different so far. Leclerc has already squandered three leads and thus lost a few points.
Last year, too, Leclerc flew off in a mass crash in turn one at the Hungaroring. For the ninth race retirement in the current season, Formula 1 betting offers odds of around 3.00.
Red Bull, on the other hand, still finishes on the podium even on bad weekends like Spielberg or Monte Carlo, and yet it would be a first for Verstappen. The Dutchman has already finished second, but he has not yet managed a win here.
Normally, this track is firmly in the hands of Mercedes. Starting with the first year in Formula 1, Lewis Hamilton has already won here eight times. However, with odds of around 11.0, another triumph is very unlikely this season.
In Le Castellet, it became apparent that the Mercedes performed well in the race, also aided by the Ferrari retirements, but were nevertheless a full second behind in qualifying.
Much to the annoyance of Toto Wolff, who had expected more from the updates. Nevertheless, a top 3 finish for Hamilton is not impossible this weekend, as the upward trend of the last races is clearly pointing upwards.
No chance of a podium, but at least a top 6 finish, should also be on the cards for McLaren and Alpine. Because the teams, which are separated by only four points in the battle for fourth place, have always been among the front runners this season.
Alpine recently drove convincingly to P6 and P8 again and, with Fernando Alonso, has one of the most experienced drivers in the entire paddock under contract. Then there’s Ocon, who is a very talented racer and celebrated his first podium here last year.
Alpine could still achieve a lot with these two drivers, because Alonso is about to extend his contract and is fully convinced of the quality of the team. Therefore, the tip Top 6 Alonso with odds of around 1.80 is definitely an option at the moment.
After the disastrous start to the season, McLaren is now also a team for the front midfield. Currently, they can even keep up with the Mercedes from time to time and fight for P4 and P5.
With the new updates, a top position is definitely possible. I think Norris is the better performer at the moment.
So my prediction would be that he will finish ahead of the Alpines again this time in Hungary.
The last 5 races at the Hungaroring:
From the track layout, this circuit is rather less spectacular. Some years there have been very uneventful races. However, there have also been seasons, like the last one, where the spectators were offered a lot at the Hungaroring.
Especially turn one after the start-finish straight is very tight and has caused crashes and chaos many times in the past. This weekend, too, there could be a similar scenario to last year.
Because there is a high probability of rain showers the whole weekend. Qualifying in particular could take place in wet conditions, making the fight for pole even more difficult and punishing the smallest mistakes even more severely.
On race day itself, with sunshine and 25°, there should be less danger of a rain race. Nevertheless, the probability of a shower is over 40%.
Assuming that some technical failures are to be expected and that I would also predict a crash in turn 1, a bet on a use of the safety car and “less than 16.5 cars reach the finish” would be conceivable.
The bookmakers also assume a SC phase in their betting tips, as the odds for a bet by Bernd Mayländer are around 1.40.
Conclusion: It is clear that if Verstappen wins again this weekend, the championship is almost decided. Of course, there are still a few races to go, but the Dutchman finishes on the podium even on bad days.
Ferrari, on the other hand, has the fastest car, but also one of the most unreliable. In addition, the pressure to perform is very high on Leclerc. The result is mistakes that he would normally never make.
Nevertheless, my prediction is that in Hungary, too, the form of the day will decide who wins. Here, however, Leclerc and Ferrari have slight advantages from a theoretical point of view.
Because in qualifying it’s not so much the overall performance that counts, but only the best lap, and here Ferrari, as has been proven many times, is always a bit better than Red Bull.
Because of the track with few overtaking opportunities and only two longer straights, overtaking is very difficult. That’s why pole is even more important. The pressure on Leclerc is high, if he doesn’t perform, the championship is probably gone.
In the race I see Red Bull further ahead, but in qualifying Ferrari have clearly shown with 8 pole positions so far that they can definitely deliver the performance from the car.
Therefore my tip for the QF is: “Pole Leclerc”.
