China Grand Prix in Shanghai, Sunday, 21.04.2024
Formula 1 is back in China! For the first time since 2019, a race will be held at the Shanghai International Circuit. At the last event, Sebastian Vettel, who has since retired, drove for Ferrari and Max Verstappen was not yet world champion.
The Dutchman is now heading for his fourth title in a row in 2024. Verstappen retired in Australia, only to drive all his rivals into the ground again at the following world championship race in Japan. But there is hope for the competition
The track in the East Asian metropolis has been revised with regard to the bumps, and the teams had not yet been on the track with the new ground effect car generation. Two factors that make preparation more difficult for all racing teams, a chance for the high-flyers from Red Bull to slip up?
Verstappen is less than amused that the comeback track of all places has been chosen for a sprint weekend. This means that the teams only have one practice session to set up the car for the decisive sessions. Despite these factors, I am convinced that Red Bull will be back on the podium with both drivers. Bwin is offering the right bet at 1.60.
The races in China have usually been entertaining in the past. After all, the Shanghai International Circuit, designed by “track pope” Hermann Tilke, still offers the longest straight in the premier class of motorsport.
In fact, the Azerbaijan circuit, which was also designed by Tilke, has an even longer full-throttle section, although the section before the start and finish is more of a twist than a straight. In any case, there was a lot of overtaking in China and exciting duels emerged in the following hairpin
Formula 1 fans can enjoy this twice over, as the first sprint is scheduled for this weekend. Once again, the format has been adapted. Qualifying for the main race has now been moved to Saturday and will take place after the sprint race.
The second session on Friday will therefore be qualifying for the sprint race, with the main race still taking place on Sunday. This means that everything now takes place in the correct order: practice, sprint qualifying, sprint race, qualifying for the main race, main race.
In my opinion, however, the session layout is still not ideal. After all, the risk in the sprint race will be dosed, a major mistake could lead to a total loss and thus jeopardize participation in the much more important qualification for the main race, which has significantly better points
The top betting providers for Formula 1 agree that Verstappen is once again the clear favorite. His odds of winning are in the region of 1.20. If the three-time world champion doesn’t do it, then the bookmakers have his team-mate Perez (9.00) on the cards, followed by Ferrari stars Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc (11.0).
The internal Ferrari duel is exciting to watch for experts and fans alike. Sainz is currently doing the better job. However, he is the one whose contract has not been extended and who is still without a cockpit for 2024. At the same time, he is also the only non-Red Bull winner since 2023. He has been on hand both times when the Austrian racing team has failed
Despite this, Leclerc, who will drive for the Italians next year with Lewis Hamilton, is still very confident and the bookmakers believe he can successfully take revenge in the team duel in China. However, the Bwin odds of 1.85 to 1.85 point to another close battle.
The two Ferrari stars should once again be the drivers battling it out for the final podium place in China. McLaren is close at times, but Ferrari has established itself as the second force in the championship
The surprise team remains Mercedes. Team boss Toto Wolff was satisfied despite the rather poor result in Suzuka. The reason for this was the pace in the second half of the race and gaining important insights for the future world championship races.
So will the former dominators of the hybrid era strike back? It would be sorely needed for the team, which is spoiled for success and is experiencing its worst season since 2011. The lap times were indeed stronger towards the end, but I doubt that it will be enough to fight for the podium again right away
The last 5 races on the Shanghai International Circuit:
After all, Hamilton and George Russell’s car is considered extremely susceptible to changing conditions and in China the engineers find an adapted track and data for the ground effect cars on this circuit could only be drawn from simulations so far.
Due to the lack of consistency of the W15, Hamilton said in the meantime: “The car feels different in every corner”, I don’t trust Mercedes to achieve a top position given the numerous uncertainties and the short testing and set-up opportunity with only a 60-minute practice session.
Interwetten serves up odds of just under 1.50 for the bet “Not both Mercedes in the top 6”, definitely a great bet that is almost enough to convert the first stage of the new customer bonus. The advantage with Interwetten: The balance can be withdrawn at any time, as the bonus money is only gradually released in the form of real money.
If Mercedes stumbles again, I definitely believe Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will finish in the top 6, for which sports betting enthusiasts will receive a 1.80. The track layout should suit the traditional British team anyway.
In Suzuka, not much was missing to separate the Ferrari drivers and in Australia, Norris in particular was able to match the speed of the iconic red racers over long phases.
Conclusion: At first glance, there should be no rain chaos, but there is still a not insignificant chance of precipitation during the race. According to current forecasts, it should be wet in qualifying for the sprint race.
Whether dry or wet, Verstappen should bag the next victory. Although the Shanghai International Circuit has only just been resurfaced, the track is ultimately a real race track, in no comparison to the complicated conditions on the street circuit in Singapore, where Red Bull completely miscalculated the car set-up.
Verstappen and Perez have won an unchallenged one-two in three out of four races, and with the betting odds I have chosen, it would be enough for both of them to finish on the podium.
My Formula 1 China GP betting tip: Verstappen and Perez in the top 3
