Prediction & Preview for the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal, Sunday, 19.06.2022
It’s going to be a spectacle. After a 3 year break, Formula 1 returns to North America. And in Canada, the anticipation is great. Because in front of a good 320,000 spectators, the world championship battle between Ferrari and Red Bull will enter its ninth round.
While Ferrari looked like the big favourites for the title at the beginning of the season, after the weekend in Baku the worry lines are big among the people in charge at Ferrari. Red Bull, on the other hand, is winning one race after another and, unlike the other teams, seems to have the fewest problems.
Even though the Scuderia has taken pole in the last four races and seems to be faster on a lap, I still believe in pole for Red Bull in my Formula 1 prediction for the Canadian Grand Prix for qualifying.
Part two of the double header and the starting position before the duel in Canada could not be more different. While Red Bull are racking up win after win, Ferrari are struggling with their drivetrain, Mercedes are struggling with their porpoising and other teams like Haas have completely different challenges.
At the Canadian Grand Prix, Ferrari must finally bring the good performances from the qualifying sessions to the track. Because last time Charles Leclerc started from pole four times in a row and was slowed down either by the team or the car.
In Montreal, the Monegasque, who is the favourite for pole in Formula 1 betting for qualifying with odds of around 1.66, will start the weekend with a new drivetrain after his retirement in Baku.
The gap to rival Max Verstappen has now risen to 34 points, but a retirement of the Dutchman would make the World Championship battle very close again.
Leclerc is still lucky that Verstappen has already been hit. The world champion, who is the underdog with odds of around 3.50 on the pole, is currently in excellent form with five out of eight Grand Prix victories.
Even if he is struggling a bit with the newly designed car, last year seems to have helped the Dutchman enormously in his development. But this year it is not only Verstappen who is on course for the crown.
Sergio Perez, who has been getting better and better lately and has only two fewer wins in qualifying in the H2H comparison, is also giving his team-mate a run for his money. The German bookmakers have also noticed this.
While a top 3 bet on the Mexican in the previous races had odds of around 1.85, they are now down to 1.36. Even a bet on both Red Bulls finishing in the top 3 is unsurprisingly comparatively low, with odds of around 1.57.
Much higher odds are available for Formula 1 bets with tips on the two Silver Arrows. Lewis Hamilton is probably struggling with back problems for the first time in his career.
Due to the different design of the Mercedes, the car is more affected by the severe bouncing than the rest of the field. However, with the new generation of cars this year, it is noticeable that all teams are struggling with this.
Improvement would only be in sight through strong adjustments, however, on the street circuit in Montreal, which is similar to Baku, the strong porpoising will occur again.
While Hamilton is struggling with the car, Russell continues to lead the way in the intra-team duel. Last week, third place for the youngster and the Briton is also ahead of Sainz in the drivers’ standings with just under 100 points and close to the leading duo of Verstappen, Leclerc and Perez.
Things are not so rosy at Haas, however. There are huge problems in the team. Team boss Günther Steiner was criticised for his handling of rookie Mick Schumacher. In addition, the Haas driver himself has been criticised and is under pressure.
Lately, Schumacher has been making supposedly simple driving mistakes and has put the car into the wall several times. However, Magnussen also showed last week that the car with the Ferrari engine does not seem to be the most stable in the field.
There was also plenty of spectacle at the final Canadian GP of 2019. Crashes, burning cars and a special excitement. Because at that time, Sebastian Vettel was still racing Lewis Hamilton for the world championship.
However, the German was fined by the FIA after his victory, so Hamilton won in the end. Anyway, the Briton is the dominator on this track.
Hamilton has won four of the last five races in Canada. However, with odds of around 35.0 at the bookies, he is not a candidate for the podium this time. Nevertheless, the seven-time world champion showed his quality in the last races.
In Baku, he only just missed the podium. And in the races before that, too, the Briton drove in the front midfield, unlike at the beginning of the season. If Mercedes can get a grip on the porpoising problem, Hamilton is definitely a candidate for the top 6.
The last 5 races at Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve:
From the track, there will definitely be some overtaking manoeuvres to watch. Because with two DRS zones and a long straight, there is definitely the possibility for spectacular duels.
The track has not been driven on for two years, so better lap times should be expected over the course of the weekend as the tarmac is constantly changing.
The Wall Of Champions could be critical. Many racers have crashed into the barriers at the chicane shortly before the start/finish.
In addition, there is a storm warning for Montreal and the conditions in qualifying and practice could be different from those in the race.
So things could really heat up in qualifying. I strongly expect the safety car to be used at least once due to more overtaking with more duels, but also due to the chicane just before the start and finish.
Summary: Excitement is guaranteed in this race. Because nobody knows how Ferrari will react after the disaster in Baku and especially how they will come back to the track.
The fact is that the Scuderia has one of the best cars in the field with one of the most powerful engines – as long as it works reliably. Red Bull, on the other hand, has the luxury problem of having two drivers at a similarly high level.
The question is, which of the two will be in better form on the day, because in terms of potential, both are candidates for the pole.
The last qualifying sessions showed the qualities of the red goddess. Ferrari is simply almost unbeatable on a lap this season. However, pole wasn’t much use recently, as the race showed that the Red Bull is the better car on long stints.
From the current form and confidence, as well as the reliability of the car, I would say although Verstappen Canada has not been lying so far from the results with only one podium finish in recent years, this year the time is ripe.
This is why my tip is Pole for Verstappen.
