Belgium Grand Prix in Spa, Sunday, 30.07.2023
The last race before the summer break of Formula 1 is coming up! Unlike usual, the Belgian Grand Prix will close the first half instead of opening the second.
Current weather forecasts point to a lot of rain this weekend. But whether on a dry or wet track, the strongest driver with the best car is Max Verstappen.
For the Red Bull star it is not only a home race because of the many Dutch fans at the track, Verstappen also has Belgian citizenship and with the World Championship round in Zandvoort in four weeks two home races in a row.
Incidentally, the sprint format will be used again this race weekend. This means that qualifying for the main race will take place on Friday and a sprint qualifying and sprint race on Saturday.
The season’s high-flyer crossed the finish line in Budapest with a lead of over 30 seconds. The updates that Red Bull brought to the Hungaroring have paid off.
Only in qualifying was it closer than expected. In the end, Lewis Hamilton was the pole setter, who had to let Verstappen and the McLaren drivers go in the first corners due to a botched start.
So will the race in Spa be Verstappen’s tenth victory in the twelfth World Championship race? I’ll go into that in my Belgium GP betting tip and reveal why I’m choosing to bet with Bet365.
Next to the Nürburgring-Nordschleife, it is the most popular circuit in racing: the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps, 7.004 kilometres, 21 corners and a difference in altitude of approximately 100 metres from the highest to the lowest point.
Due to its spectacular layout, the track has been nicknamed the “Ardennes Rollercoaster”. The record winner is seven-time Formula 1 world champion Michael Schumacher with six victories, who drove his first ever race in the premier class on the traditional circuit in 1991.
Verstappen completed his last Spa run in the virtual racing world. It ended in a disqualification when he committed a revenge foul after a collision, catapulting himself and his opponent off the track.
The hot-blooded double world champion will definitely not allow himself that on Sunday. Bet365 is predicting another clear Verstappen win (1.28 odds).
The McLaren forward trend is also impressing bettors. Lando Norris is considered Verstappen’s number one chaser at 11.0, ahead of Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Perez (both 13.0) and George Russell (21.0).
With these odds, it is definitely not worth betting on the race winner, at least not as long as no betting configurator is offered for Formula 1.
But nowadays the betting offer is diverse even in the highest motorsport class. Attractive, for example, is the 1.61 odds for “Both Ferrari drivers in the points”.
Although the team with which Schumacher became world champion five times has not been able to fight for podium places in the last races, it was clearly faster than the other midfield teams, even if Leclerc and Sainz were almost lapped by Verstappen.
So far, the Scuderia has had no problems scoring points in any case, when no crash or technical defect intervened.
McLaren has pulled away from Ferrari and Aston Martin with Mercedes. Therefore, highly-rated talent Oscar Piastri (1.50 odds) should finish in the top six.
If Sergio Perez makes it to the third qualifying stage again, a double podium for Red Bull is also very likely.
Nevertheless, the odds are in a lucrative range of 1.90 at Bwin. Those who bet on a double victory, i.e. first and second place for Verstappen and Perez, even get 2.75 for their betting slip.
The last 5 races at the Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps:
In the end, however, the weather could also have a strong influence on the racing. Nevertheless, the Red Bull remains by far the best car in all respects over the 44 laps.
Last year, the Austrian racing team celebrated a double victory. Sainz completed the podium. Given Ferrari’s weakness, a repeat of third place is unlikely.
In 2021, on the other hand, there was probably the sport’s biggest disappointment. In order to have a race classification at Spa, only a few laps were run behind the safety car in pouring rain and then the points and trophies were handed out.
It was the shortest race in history. Hopefully the weather will cooperate on Sunday and the race can take place.
Alexander Albon should again be in the running for the points on the high-speed track in Belgium. The Thai driver can always be counted on to finish in the top 10 on the fast circuits.
Last year, he finished tenth. Bet365 is offering 2.25 odds on Albon scoring points on Sunday. Stroll’s 2.00 is also interesting. While the former second power, Aston Martin, has been swept through, it has a car capable of scoring points for every track type.
When asked about the fastest race lap, Verstappen listens carefully every time. After all, he wants to take the maximum points haul from every race weekend. That includes the extra point for the fastest lap in the race.
If he can dictate the race from the front in a relaxed manner, as he did in Hungary, his dominance at the end of the race will give him enough distance for an extra pit stop to attack the fastest time with fresh tyres. The 1.65 is definitely worthwhile.
Ferrari has a big gap to the top, but is still one of the top teams in Formula 1 and has a good cushion to the teams that are scratching for the points every now and then.
If there is no technical defect and the driver duo Sainz/Leclerc gets through without any mistakes or crashes, it will be a place in the top 10 for both Scuderia drivers.
My Belgian GP tip: Both Ferraris in the points? Yes!
