Belgium Grand Prix in Spa, Sunday, 28.07.2024 at 15:00
It’s getting worse for Max Verstappen, who doesn’t feel comfortable at Red Bull at the moment. He is still comfortably leading the championship with a 76-point lead ahead of the last race of the summer break. The race at Spa Francorchamps takes place unusually early.
Traditionally, the Belgian GP is the first race after the four-week break, and in 2024 it will be the last race on the calendar before the summer break. The Dutchman, who also has Belgian citizenship, will be racing his first of his two home races
However, the superstar will have to start from further back. The reason for this is a grid penalty he received for swapping engine parts. The three-time champion has already used up his regular quota. This means that victory is probably out of the question.
McLaren are the favorites after their double victory in Hungary. But with the slightly cooler conditions and the type of track at Spa, I definitely have Mercedes on my radar too. George Russell and Lewis Hamilton should finish in the top 6, my Belgium GP bet at Bwin
Verstappen gave free rein to his anger in Budapest. He complained loudly on the radio about his car and the strategy that his racing team had given him. There was no shortage of swear words. At the end of the race, he collided with Lewis Hamilton after a reckless maneuver.
There is more behind this frustration than just not winning a race – the third non-winning race in a row, mind you. On the one hand, competitors are overtaking Red Bull despite the world champion team’s new updates, and the McLaren is now considered the fastest car
Starting grid for the Belgian GP
It was also no secret that Verstappen is eyeing a move to Mercedes. Red Bull motorsport consultant Helmut Marko is considered a confidant of the Verstappen clan, and the 81-year-old has an additional personal contractual agreement with Verstappen.
If Marko leaves the team, or if the Austrian is no longer in a high position, Verstappen can leave the team before the end of his contract, which runs until 2028. However, Marko’s contract itself has now been extended until 2026 and he has been given more power.
Verstappen is therefore stuck at Red Bull, an overwhelming situation for the championship leader. And now the paddock is also buzzing with discussions about whether Verstappen should no longer be allowed to take part in simracing races on race weekends
And then there’s the ten-place grid penalty at Spa on top of that. However, this was already planned in advance, as Spa, with its long straights, is considered one of the best tracks to start from further back. Overtaking is easier than on other circuits.
We therefore find Verstappen further back in the win odds this time. Lando Norris leads the odds at Betano with 1.85 ahead of his team-mate Oscar Piastri (4.60). It is noticeable in Formula 1 that the odds of victory sometimes vary greatly from betting provider to betting provider. A cross comparison is worthwhile
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The 1.85 for Norris’ success is definitely worth considering. He has been Verstappen’s most consistent pursuer over the last few races. With a few exceptions, he has his team-mate Oscar Piastri under control.
The Australian achieved his first GP victory in Budapest, the first winner in Formula 1 born after 1999
Piastri made his first exclamation marks at Spa last year. So I wouldn’t write him off. I’m also excited about Mercedes. The Silver Arrow likes cooler conditions and a high-speed circuit with lots of fast corners.
Lewis Hamilton won the race at Silverstone, in dry conditions he and team-mate George Russell pulled away. I’ve definitely got my eye on the British one-two.
The race pace in Hungary also looked strong, Hamilton was able to keep up with Verstappen. Russell made a brilliant charge up to eighth place after a weak qualifying session. And there it was hot and slow in terms of track type, Mercedes-unfriendly conditions
The last 5 races at Spa-Francorchamps:
A Verstappen from eleventh on the grid or worse, his teammate in crisis and a Ferrari team that only plays fourth fiddle in the rankings even with a new underbody, I see Russell and Hamilton way ahead.
Bwin is offering 1.57 odds for the bet “Both Mercedes in the top 6”. Alternatively, you could also place two single bets on Lewis Hamilton and George Russell in the top 3 with the same stake. With odds of over 2.20, a plus awaits if one of the two succeeds. Double joy with two stars on the podium
In Spa, the weather is always an uncertain component, as a rain cell can quickly form in the Ardennes. According to the weather forecast, however, precipitation is highly unlikely. Only on Saturday should the heavens open.
With or without rain, the high-speed circuit is always a fierce battle and the safety car is only a matter of time. After scouring the sports betting apps, odds of around 1.50 are waiting for Bernd Mayländer’s bet in the 44-lap race.
Interwetten serves up a 1.63 for under 18.5 drivers at the finish, also a good option.
Conclusion: Mercedes was at least on a par with Max Verstappen in the last few races. Unlike Sergio Perez, who is currently only notable for his antics and may be replaced during the summer break, the Dutchman gets everything out of the car.
As Verstappen will start ten positions further back due to the engine penalty, I don’t see Red Bull in the fight for the top positions. McLaren and, with the cool temperatures and the fast track, Mercedes are also strong. Ferrari have been in reverse gear since their victory in Monaco.
That’s why my betting tip is: Both Mercedes in the top 6
