Dutch Grand Prix in Zandvoort, Sunday, 25.08.2024 at 15:00
The Formula 1 summer break is over. Drivers and teams have had four weeks to recharge their batteries. After the Belgian Grand Prix, the traveling circus heads to the North Sea coast of Zandvoort.
The premier class of motorsport has been racing on this circuit again since 2021. Max Verstappen has triggered a Formula 1 boom in Holland and brought the fastest racing series in the world back to the traditional circuit, which was an integral part of the series from the beginning of the World Automobile Championship until the mid-1980s, with a few exceptions.
Legends such as Ayrton Senna, Niki Lauda and Alain Prost raced around the dunes before the current generation
Verstappen is also the only driver to have won at Zandvoort since the circuit’s comeback. Can he make it four for his 200th Grand Prix? It will be difficult against McLaren and Mercedes. Red Bull dominated at the start of the season
No sign of the 1.25 Verstappen win odds, he starts from second place behind Norris, who goes into the race as the favorite. As the race is too close at the front, I prefer to send a duel bet into the race.
Mercedes clearly has the stronger car in the race than Aston Martin, so I’m betting that Hamilton will finish ahead of Alonso after his slip-up in qualifying
It’s more exciting than it’s been for a long time in Formula 1, at least when we look at the individual races. The year 2024 has already produced seven winners. In the world championship, Verstappen already has a 78-point lead over his closest rival Norris. But the red bulls are stumbling.
There is nothing left of the sheer dominance at the start of the season, when Verstappen and team-mate Sergio Perez clinched double victory after double victory.
The McLaren is now regarded as the fastest car. However, both the strategy department and Norris himself are still too prone to error
Test: Starting grid for the Dutch GP
Norris couldn’t really nibble off any of the lead. In addition, the reinvigorated Mercedes team is now also taking points away from the other racing teams.
However, after the worst start to the 2011 season, Mercedes can no longer have a say in the drivers’ championship. There are still a few race wins up for grabs.
Verstappen has come away empty-handed in terms of victories in the last four world championship races. Only at Silverstone has he managed a podium. In Spielberg he collided with Norris, in Belgium he had to start from further back due to an engine penalty and in Budapest he simply lacked the pace
The pit stops also go wrong from time to time, the strategies are sometimes improvable. Red Bull is faltering and Mercedes is fighting for victories alongside McLaren.
I already rated Mercedes highly for the Belgian GP, with both drivers in the top 6 in my corresponding betting tip.
The odds went through despite the subsequent disqualification of George Russell. What counts is the result at the podium ceremony. Mercedes is mainly there when the conditions are not really hot. In the heat, Mercedes struggles with the balance from time to time
In Zandvoort, it will initially be rainy, but the current forecast is for Sunday to be dry, with the thermometer remaining below 20 degrees Celsius. The chance for a Mercedes victory?
George Russell will start behind the McLaren drivers and Verstappen from fourth place in the chasing pack. Hamilton has to start from 14th place after he was unable to set a good lap in Q2.
However, Mercedes was fast in all practice sessions and, in terms of my duel bet against Alonso, significantly faster than Aston Martin. If he can’t overtake the Spaniard on the track, the Silver Arrows will put Hamilton ahead with the right strategy.
McLaren is the most consistent in terms of pace, but the traditional British team often ends up beating itself. Red Bull has been strong at Zandvoort in recent years, Verstappen has won every race and the superstar is particularly motivated at his home race.
In addition, Verstappen was fastest in the practice sessions at the last race in Spa in terms of lap times alone, but struggled to overtake the other cars in the race from eleventh on the grid. However, he does not have a grid penalty at Zandvoort
The last 5 races at the Circuit Zadvoort:
And what about Ferrari? The Italians are currently only in fourth place, but are not far off the top. Slower circuits suit the Scuderia on paper, actually.
After the victory in Monaco, Ferrari was also seen as a team that could fight for victory in Hungary, a circuit that is often compared to the street circuit due to its many slow sections.
Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, however, were just panting behind.
At Spa, Leclerc was unable to clinch pole position and was gradually pushed through the field. After the summer break, I still only see Ferrari as number four behind Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren
In the meantime, Bernd Mayländer is likely to lead the field instead. Zandvoort has been a very busy place in recent years. I wouldn’t rule out rain, even if the current forecasts point to a dry race.
But even in a race without precipitation, the narrow track can quickly become bumpy. At Betano you get a 1.50 for the use of a safety car. As a new customer, you can also secure a 20 euro free bet with no deposit.
You get slightly better odds for the “Under 18.5 drivers to finish” tip. After the numerous crashes at the weekend, which I also had on my mind, the bet has now slipped from 2.25 to 1.60, but is still worthwhile in my eyes.
Conclusion: There should be an interesting four-way battle at the front between the McLaren drivers, Verstappen and Russell. Overtaking is extremely difficult on the narrow, short circuit at Zandvoort. A clever strategy can be decisive for the race.
Spa and Silverstone winner Hamilton will have to start from 14th after a poor quali. Betano delivers great odds for the Head2Head against Alonso, who starts seven positions further forward but clearly has the worse pace.
It’s a matter of laps when he overtakes the oldest driver in the field on the track or via strategy.
My GP of the Netherlands Formula 1 tip: Hamilton ahead of Alonso.
