Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal, Sunday, June 15, 2025, at 8:00 p.m.
Formula 1 stops in Canada, with the tenth race of the season taking place at the legendary Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Max Verstappen won the last three races in Montreal. Will he win his fourth in a row?
Not only do I have my doubts, but so do our betting providers. Once again, the two McLaren drivers are the favorites, as they simply have the fastest and most tire-friendly cars in the field.
Oscar Piastri has been the stronger driver over the last few weeks and months, with Lando Norris only getting the upper hand on the city circuit in Monaco. However, we can’t talk about a big difference here.
The Australian’s 2.20 for GP success is tempting, but by no means a sure thing!
In my Canadian GP tip, I have therefore picked a different bet from Bet365 – namely, a top 6 finish for both Ferrari stars. Charles Leclerc regularly gets the most out of the red racer.
Lewis Hamilton is still struggling with fine-tuning, lagging a little behind, but now he’s coming to a track where no other driver has won more often. Hamilton claimed his first ever GP victory in Montreal 18 years ago.
The setup difficulties should not be as significant this time around. The track is short in terms of lap time, so many test laps can be completed in practice.
Canada GP start times: TV and stream broadcast
The main argument for the Ferrari stars’ top-six finish is their good race pace. Since the updates in Imola, Ferrari has had the fastest car after McLaren. Only Max Verstappen can repeatedly get in the way.
Mercedes, on the other hand, is struggling with both speed and reliability, and rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli is still two or three tenths of a second slower per lap than the established George Russell.
Even if the Brit and Verstappen finish ahead of Ferrari, Leclerc and Hamilton would still be in the top six. So I’m happy to take Bet365’s 1.54.
The Canadian Grand Prix is one of the races I’m most looking forward to. It’s a Grand Prix steeped in tradition that is rarely a dull, boring affair.
Rain, collisions, safety car phases – there’s always something going on. The drivers shoot past the track limits by a hair’s breadth, and things get particularly dicey in turn one and the final chicane.
If you go too wide here, you’ll crash into the “Wall of Champions.” In duels, two drivers often go into the corner together, but there’s only room for one at the exit.
On the following start/finish straight, they can counterattack immediately. It’s simply a brilliant track layout – and in 2011, we experienced the longest GP ever here, lasting over four hours.
Rain slowed the drivers down. Because of this race, a rule was introduced stipulating that a Grand Prix, including interruptions in the form of red flags, may last a maximum of four hours.
Current forecasts point to a dry race, with temperatures of 25 degrees Celsius, which is quite warm for Montreal. These conditions suit McLaren.
With these temperatures and the softest tires in the bag (C4, C5, C6), tire wear is likely to be a major issue. That’s why I see the two McLaren drivers even further ahead.
At least Betano and Co. are still offering 1.34 for a McLaren driver to win. These are top odds, and in fact, the only thing that can stop them is themselves or technical problems.
However, the McLaren is very reliable, and Piastri and Norris are treating each other with respect on the track. Experts expect a clash between the two teammates at some point, but the situation is still calm at the moment.
The last 5 races at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve:
From a rather low odds, I come to a much higher one, 5.00 for Nico Hülkenberg to finish in the points, which is considered very unlikely.
The latest Sauber update has paid off, with Hülkenberg finishing fifth in Spain, easily securing points and overtaking Hamilton to cap off a perfect day.
It remains to be seen how his green speedster will perform in Montreal. However, I consider the probability to be significantly higher than the 20 percent set by the bookmakers. Because in Barcelona, the rule is: if you’re fast there, you have a car with good aerodynamics.
A bet I’ve made repeatedly in past races was the “under 18.5 drivers to finish” odds. There were regularly at least two retirements.
In Canada, I also expect that not all drivers will cross the finish line. Mistakes are punished with crashes at some points on the track.
In addition, the rookies in the premier class are on the track for the first time, and as we know, there are quite a few of them this season…
Conclusion: McLaren should score a one-two finish, followed by Verstappen and the Ferrari drivers, who are also likely to battle with George Russell.
Antonelli is still lagging behind in terms of speed, and Verstappen’s teammate Yuki Tsunoda is struggling even more. The other teams are too far behind to be able to seriously challenge the front runners.
Ferrari may have its weaknesses in qualifying, but it’s really good with a fully fueled car and over the distance.
So my Canadian Grand Prix prediction is: Both Ferraris in the top 6
