The World Championship battle enters the decisive phase of the season with the 15th of 22 races. The Formula 1 circus makes a guest appearance in Sochi this week, and the starting position could not be more exciting.
Red Bull driver Max Verstappen, despite and because of the crash in Monza with his closest rival Lewis Hamilton , has a five-point lead over the Mercedes driver as world championship leader
But the chances of another Grand Prix win for the Dutchman are not so good this race weekend
Max Verstappen is quite a bit better this season than last. With an even better car and already seven Grand Prix victories the Dutchman has been leading the World Championship standings for several weeks now.
This makes the fight for the title a real crime between Mercedes and Red Bull in contrast to the last few years. Especially in the last races, the smallest mistake can be decisive.
Verstappen made one last week at the Monza Grand Prix. Clever of him to push his rival Lewis Hamilton off the track at the same time.
The laughing winner that day was ex-Red Bull driver Daniel Ricciardo, who celebrated his first Grand Prix success with McLaren this season.
This weekend will be particularly exciting. Because Verstappen got a penalty of three places back for the crash in Monza
In addition, Red Bull is considering changing the power unit in Verstappen’s RB16B because of the handicap, which would mean a penalty of last place in the regulations.
Due to the grid penalty of at least three places, it will be more than difficult for the Dutchman to compete for victory anyway.
Especially because the Sochi Autodrom is an absolute Mercedes stronghold Since 2014, the team has taken the win every year
Valteri Bottas in particular has good memories of this track. In the past four races, the Finn never finished worse than second. Last year, he even took the win ahead of Verstappen.
For another Bottas victory, the bookies are offering fabulous odds of around 5.50
A look at the track profile shows that overtaking opportunities will be rare.
Due to the two long straights and few sharp corners, this race will be decided less by close duels and more by the performance of the individual cars.
There is one chance, however, and that is at the start. Because the slipstream in the first section of the track offers optimal opportunities to overtake or gain distance. In addition, it is a long way to the first bend with a 900-metre-long start straight.
That’s why it will be exciting at turn one to see who brakes and who keeps their nerve and can make up places. Last year, this very corner led to several changes of places and crashes.
What makes the Formula 1 predictions for Sochi particularly difficult, however, is the weather.
The likelihood of rain is very high on Saturday with qualifying and windy conditions, and on race day itself it remains completely open as to which tyres the drivers will have to put on to avoid skidding through the autodromes.
In my opinion, nothing stands in the way of a Mercedes win, given the conditions for the race and their performance in recent years. Verstappen will have a hard time getting past the bolides with the star due to the penalty.
Another candidate for the podium, Charles Leclerc, will start from the very back due to the engine change McLaren, who have recently underlined their strong form with the double podium at Monza, are likely to run in the first third
The performance of the car, which will be particularly challenged on the long straights in Sochi, will not be enough for victory
Conclusion: For me it will be a duel between Valteri Bottas and Lewis Hamilton.
It seems that the Finn is becoming more and more liberated after his future has been clarified and, what’s more, Hamilton’s team-mate has already won twice in Sochi.
However, it will be exciting to see if Mercedes will not go all out for their number one driver who needs to make up points and perfect his fifth win at the Russian Grand Prix
For a Mercedes double podium, I found very lucrative odds of 1.90 at Betway
If you want to bet on a win for the reigning world champion Lewis Hamilton, the bookies offer odds of around 1.70
