Bahrain Grand Prix in Sakhir, Sunday, 13.04.2025 at 5:00 p.m.
Max Verstappen was able to shorten the gap in the World Cup with his victory in Japan. Lando Norris is now only one point ahead of him. Has Red Bull now understood the car better and will they also be ahead at the Bahrain Grand Prix?
I don’t think so. The Formula 1 drivers will be racing with the same tires this weekend as they did in Suzuka, but in significantly hotter temperatures and on rougher asphalt. That plays into the hands of the McLaren team!
I think Oscar Piastri in particular is capable of winning this weekend. He was already faster than Lando Norris in China and was not allowed to pass his team-mate to put pressure on Verstappen despite his clearly better race pace. I still can’t understand the decision.
It would have been a nice birthday present for the Australian if the British team had simply let Verstappen win the GP. Not the only strategic mistake made by the team in the last few months.
However, this shouldn’t be as important in Sakhir, as I expect McLaren to finish first and second. I’m going for Piastri to finish ahead of Verstappen, my Formula 1 Bahrain GP betting tip from Bwin.
Bahrain GP start times: broadcast on TV and stream
Let’s quickly get the weather out of the way. In Suzuka, it rained before the race, but it was still possible to race the entire GP on slicks. It will remain dry in Bahrain, not surprising in the desert state.
But it only rained on the track during the test drives. As in Saudi Arabia a week later, the race will take place late in the evening; it has been held as a night race since 2014. Nevertheless, it will be significantly warmer than last Sunday in Suzuka.
The heat and the asphalt will be a challenge for people, machines, and tires. McLaren is currently showing the best performance in terms of tire management, which is a decisive advantage in addition to the MCL39’s already strong pace.
This was particularly evident in the race in Australia. The longer the stint lasted, the more Piastri and Norris were able to pull away, and in China the two Papaya drivers went on to achieve the next one-two victory.
In Japan, on the other hand, it was significantly cooler and the tires held up well on the newly paved track, which offered plenty of grip. This meant that it was not possible to overtake Verstappen.
For the Bahrain Grand Prix, Norris is still ahead at our top Formula 1 betting providers, as in the previous races, with odds of 2.20, followed by Piastri (3.00) and Verstappen (4.50) – and then? There’s nothing for a long time! George Russell already has a 15.0, Charles Leclerc a 23.0.
I’m very excited about Ferrari. They did well in the test drives in Bahrain and have felt comfortable on the track in recent years. In addition, new parts are being bolted to the cars.
Although neither Leclerc nor Lewis Hamilton were able to fight for victory in Suzuka, the Monegasque driver’s average gap per lap was just three-tenths of a second. And in completely different conditions, it could look a lot better again.
We must not forget that Leclerc was already the fastest man on the track towards the end of the race in China. Targeting the win rate with a free bet is worth considering, even the 4.25 is still very interesting with a free bet.
The last 5 races at the Bahrain International Circuit:
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The odds for a safety car deployment are not particularly low either, with Interwetten offering a straight 2.00. Besides the fact that the circuit is more stressful for the cars, really tough duels take place at the Bahrain International Circuit.
The track layout makes it possible. While in Suzuka, with the current generation, it was impossible to pass without an enormous speed advantage, this weekend we should see many overtaking maneuvers, counterattacks, and generally wheel-to-wheel duels.
In addition, the first corner, through which three cars often pass side by side at the start, carries a risk of crashes.
Conclusion: I think Ferrari are more likely to do well in Bahrain than in Japan, but I doubt they will be able to fight for victory. McLaren have been too consistent for me so far.
Piastri could have set a much faster pace than Verstappen in Suzuka if the track had been clear, and now it is going to be a track where McLaren should have a much greater advantage over Red Bull.
Even if Piastri should be slower than the four-time world champion on a lap in qualifying, he will get past on Sunday with better tire wear and good overtaking opportunities over the long stints in the race.
That’s why my betting tip is: Piastri ahead of Verstappen.
