VfL Wolfsburg vs. FSV Mainz 05
Wolfsburg’s successful Bundesliga debut with a 3-1 win in Heidenheim immediately earned Paul Simonis three points in his debut as head coach, with his clever substitutions of Svanberg and Amoura in the closing stages making the difference. VfL now welcomes 1. FSV Mainz 05 to the Volkswagen Arena on Sunday afternoon, with Mainz under pressure after their narrow 2-1 defeat to Cologne in their opening game. The offensive consistency in direct duels is remarkable: Wolfsburg has scored in all five encounters in recent years, while Mainz has always conceded at least one goal, most recently in a 2-2 draw in April. Despite considerable personnel problems with the absences of Skov Olsen, Lindstrøm, Mæhle, and Paredes, the bookmakers see Wolfsburg as the clear favorites, while Mainz arrives with renewed confidence after a convincing 4-1 win over Rosenborg and qualification for the Conference League.
- Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
- Date and time: August 31, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 2)
Wolfsburg Form & Record Check
The Wolves have found their feet in the new season, even if they are not yet consistent over the full 90 minutes. The 3-1 opening win in Heidenheim was ultimately deserved, with Paul Simonis proving in his first competitive game that his substitutions can make the difference. After Skov Olsen’s early goal, the team didn’t let Scienza’s free kick goal rattle them, before substitutes Svanberg and Amoura sealed the deal in the second half. Svanberg scored with a precise header from Arnold’s assist, while Amoura converted from the penalty spot. The personnel problems in attack are considerable: With Lindstrøm, Skov Olsen, and Paredes, three important wingers are out, and defensive players Mæhle and Vavro are also unavailable. New right-back Kumbedi should at least provide more options in one position. Tactically, Simonis seems to have already made his mark, with his substitutions against Heidenheim perfectly timed and changing the game decisively. The fourth place in the table after the first matchday does not hide the fact that there is still some work to be done.
At Wolfsburg, head coach Paul Simonis is likely to stick with the tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation after the successful opening win in Heidenheim. Grabara is expected to be in goal again, while Fischer, Jenz, Koulierakis, and Zehnter could form the back four. The midfield duo of Arnold and Vini Souza has already gelled, and they could be supported by an attacking trio of Wimmer, Majer, and Cerny. Amoura is set to start up front after scoring his first Bundesliga goal in the opening game. The personnel situation is problematic with six players out: in addition to the long-term injured Lindstrøm and Skov Olsen, Mæhle, Rogério, and Paredes are also missing. The absence of the offensive players in particular significantly limits Simonis’ tactical options. At least Wind and Dárdai are available on the bench as two further offensive options.
Mainz Form & Record Check
Mainz 05 are in mixed form after the Bundesliga opener. The 1-2 home defeat to Cologne at the start of the season was a bitter setback that left the Rheinhessen side without any points and in 14th place in the table. However, Bo Henriksen’s team is showing two sides to its character: while its league form has been disappointing, Mainz shone in the Conference League return leg against Rosenborg with a dominant 4-1 victory. Bell, Lee, Weiper, and Amiri staged a furious comeback after the 2-1 defeat in the first leg and secured their place in the league phase. Personnel concerns are becoming a problem, as important options such as Hollerbach, Dal, and Gleiber are missing. Hollerbach’s absence due to a muscle injury is hitting the attack particularly hard. Weiper stepped in as a replacement and rewarded himself with a goal against Rosenborg after extending his contract until 2029 shortly before the game. Mainz’s offensive power is striking: in four of their last five games, the Rheinhessen have already scored by halftime, although they still lack the desired consistency defensively.
Coach Bo Henriksen is likely to field his Mainz team in their usual 3-4-3 formation. The most significant absence is Benedict Hollerbach, who has had to withdraw due to a muscle injury. This opens up new opportunities in attack for Nelson Weiper, after the 20-year-old impressed in the successful Conference League return leg against Rosenborg and extended his contract until 2029 shortly before the game. Da Costa, Bell, and Kohr could form the defensive trio, while Mwene and Caci occupy the wide positions. Sano and Amiri are set to start in central midfield. Alongside Weiper, Nebel and Lee are likely to occupy the attacking positions. Daniel Gleiber is also out with a thigh injury, while Maxim Dal remains sidelined with a cruciate ligament rupture.
H2H Wolfsburg – Mainz Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The last five encounters between these teams paint a clear picture: Wolfsburg clearly dominates the first half. The Wolves took the lead in all five encounters at halftime, while Mainz did not lead in a single case before the break. However, the matches are anything but boring, with all five games ending with more than 1.5 goals, four of them even with over 2.5 goals. The most spectacular encounter between the two teams took place in December 2024, when Wolfsburg won 4-3. The record of the last five games shows that the teams are evenly matched: Wolfsburg won twice, Mainz once, and there were two draws. The most recent match in April 2025 ended 2-2, after Wolfsburg had once again taken the lead at half-time. One noteworthy detail is Wolfsburg’s accuracy in this series: the Lower Saxony team scored at least one goal in all five games, but also conceded goals in four of the five encounters. Mainz, on the other hand, failed to score only once, namely in the 3-0 defeat in 2023.
Over 2.5 goals seems like a solid bet, as Wolfsburg’s last five games have exceeded this mark 80% of the time, while Mainz has both scored and conceded in just as many games. The betting market shows Wolfsburg as the clear favorite at odds of around 2.0, but the goal statistics of both teams suggest an open, high-scoring duel. The tip for both teams to score perfectly complements this assessment: although Henriksen is missing an important striker in Hollerbach, Nelson Weiper compensated for this gap in the 4-1 win over Rosenborg and promptly extended his contract until 2029. On the Wolfsburg side, Amoura and Wind recently showed their striking power in Heidenheim despite the absences of Skov Olsen and Lindstrøm. The more specific tip of over 1.5 goals in the second half is based on a noticeable pattern, as 80% of Wolfsburg’s recent games have had this characteristic and Mainz has often shown more determination after the break. The defensive personnel problems with Vavro, Mæhle, and Rogério for the hosts, as well as the long-term injury to Dal at Mainz, support the assessment of a high-scoring game, with the betting markets pricing a draw at 3.6.
