The Bundesliga season is just around the corner. After an eventful summer of sport, there was little time for some players to regenerate, as soccer continued to be played with the European Championship, Copa América and the Olympic Games. The standard in Germany’s top division is rising year on year, and keeping up in one of the best leagues in Europe is no easy task.
Last season, relegation place and eleventh place were separated by just six points after the last matchday and the race to avoid relegation was only decided in the final few meters. We expect another competitive season this year, in which every team will have to perform consistently to avoid slipping down the table.
Some teams from the 2023/24 Bundesliga will certainly not have been satisfied with their season’s performance and have regrouped in the summer. In addition, two newcomers from the Bundesliga 2 have moved up, making them difficult for many to assess.
We have taken a closer look at a few teams for you and dare to predict which teams are playing against relegation and who could end up being relegated. If you want free predictions and analyses for all Bundesliga matches, then take a look at our betting tips, where you will find betting analyses from our experts for every match at least 48 hours before kick-off.
Odds comparison: Bundesliga winner 2024/25
Bundesliga relegation 2024/25 – Which teams are at risk
You can see from the odds on the championship title of the teams how strong or weak the bookmakers rate the individual teams. For some clubs, the bookies are quite unanimous when it comes to the odds, while for others they differ greatly. We take a closer look at what we consider to be the three weakest teams in order to find arguments for and against staying in the league
Holstein Kiel – 1st season
The promoted team will have a tough season ahead of them. The team from Schleswig-Holstein have lost a number of key players and have not yet been able to fill all the gaps in their squad. The most important of these is Philipp Sander, who has moved to league rivals Gladbach. Sander was the man for all standards in the team and was the driving center player in Kiel’s game. Left-back Tom Rothe also returned to BVB after a loan spell, as did Mikkel Kirkeskov, who the club had to let go on a free transfer.
An attempt was made to compensate for these departures, with Armin Gigovic arriving at the Baltic Sea as a record transfer. The Bosnian played for FC Midtiylland in the Danish league last season, where he did get some minutes, but at the age of 22 he is still in the development phase and has to prove himself in the Bundesliga. Also from the Danish league is midfielder Magnus Knudsen, who scored three goals and provided one assist for Aarhus GF. All in all, however, they lack a strong leader who can take the young team with little Bundesliga experience by the hand and lead the way.
However, Kiel’s inexperience is also their opportunity. They can go into every game as young underdogs and showed last season that they have a strong spirit in the team. There will also be no pressure in the surroundings and Kiel’s management knows where it stands. Overall, however, we don’t see enough quality in the squad and think that the team will find it difficult to survive in the Bundesliga. We think that Holstein Kiel are the number one relegation candidates
VfL Bochum – Relegation again?
VfL Bochum are also among the relegation candidates. Last season, they only managed to escape relegation in a strange relegation play-off and will have a similarly difficult year ahead of them. They also have to compensate for the departure of one of their key players, Kevin Stöger, who was directly involved in 38% of all Bochum goals. Along with Stöger, Patrick Osterhage and Keven Schlotterbeck are also leaving VfL.
Bochum have tried to be as active as possible on the transfer market and were able to lure two players to the Ruhrpott on a free transfer: Ibrahima Sissoko and Dani de Wit. The latter scored ten goals and set up three goals in the Eredivisie last season. He is set to take over Stöger’s position and take the reins in attacking midfield. Coach Heiko Butscher is also hoping that the two 20-year-olds Samuel Bamba and Tim Oermann will take a step forward in their development, although they would need playing time to do so.
We rate VfL’s summer transfer window as a success in terms of the budget available. Nevertheless, the departure of Kevin Stöger will leave a big hole that will be difficult to fill. If new signing de Wit doesn’t have a great season, we also see a big risk of relegation for Bochum. In addition, although Sissoko has been brought in as a clearer for the defensive midfield, they lack a creative player as well as a taker who can score solid double-digit goals for Bochum
FC Augsburg – always a relegation candidate?
FC Augsburg are also seen by the bookmakers as one of the weaker teams in the league. Although FCA finished eleventh last season, there are some indications as to why they might not be as successful in the coming season as they were last year.
The departure of Ermedin Demirovic is a hard blow for coach Jess Thorup’s team. The goalscorer was the team’s absolute top scorer last season with 15 goals and nine assists and will be on the hunt for goals at VfB Stuttgart in the coming season. Full-backs Iago and Kevin Mbabu are also leaving the club. In addition, Felix Uduokhai and Rubén Vargas have publicly stated that they do not see their future at FCA and that transfers are to be expected. This means that five regular players are leaving the team.
Augsburg have tried to absorb these departures as far as possible on the transfer market, but have somewhat missed the mark. A new goalkeeper, Nediljko Labrović, was brought in for 3.5 million euros. Of course, that sends a signal to regular keeper Finn Dahmen, with whom those responsible were probably not one hundred percent satisfied last season. It is not yet clear which of the two will be the number one and this uncertainty could make for an uneasy start.
Good transfers in our eyes include the signing of full-back Dimitros Giannoulis, who also showed attacking qualities at Norwich City and should be an upgrade on Mads Pedersen. Keven Schlotterbeck, another solid defender, also joins the team. Samuel Essende, who scored 15 goals in the Portuguese league last year and is following in Demirovic’s footsteps, has been brought in as a striker. What is still missing is a right-back and a central attacking midfielder. There is currently talk of signing Marius Wolf, which could be a real coup for FCA. Although we also see Augsburg as significantly weaker than last year’s result, we believe they are stronger than Kiel and Bochum due to the transfers and the financial opportunity to make another move in the winter. Although FCA will be playing for relegation, they are still one step above the two main candidates mentioned above
Relegated teams of the last 10 years
Surprises at Pauli, Union & Heidenheim?
Of course, the list of teams at risk of relegation does not end there. Second-placed FC St. Pauli, Mainz 05 and Union Berlin will also be aiming to avoid relegation this season. St. Pauli and Mainz have done a good job during the summer break and have strengthened their squads in the right positions. In our eyes, both have put together a squad ready for the first division and, if they can deliver their performances, should finish better than 16th in terms of squad quality.
The same applies to Union Berlin, who are making a fresh start with a new coach after a horror season. We see a higher risk at 1. FC Heidenheim. After a successful season, the team is heading for Conference League qualification. We saw last year at Union Berlin and in the 2017/18 season at 1. FC Köln what the pressure of the European Cup can do to teams that are not in the best position. We think that Heidenheim will be much further down the table than in the previous season
Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga?
After our analysis, we took a closer look at the main candidates and came to the conclusion that Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum will probably have the hardest time surviving in the league.
Both teams have lost important players compared to the previous season and will not be able to fill these gaps. We see FC Augsburg as a little better, although we also rate them as weaker than last season and therefore likely to be at the bottom. In front of them is a wider field with teams such as St. Pauli, Mainz and FC Heidenheim. In the end, as was the case last year, we expect another tight league in which the relegation battle will keep some teams trembling for a long time
