Key Facts
- West Ham (18th/17 points, -20) desperately needs points, five behind Forest above the line, while Sunderland remains comfortably in the upper midfield in ninth place (33).
- The 2-1 win at Tottenham (Summerville early, Wilson late) masks West Ham’s instability: they have conceded in five games and over 2.5 goals in each.
- Without Paquetá in the squad, West Ham lack a creative playmaker; and keeper Fabianski is also still out, making Bowen’s runs and Summerville’s one-on-ones particularly important.
- Sunderland often scores through control and draws; against Palace, Le Fée scored again in the center and Brobbey turned the game around, statistically, halves usually remain low-scoring (80% U1.5).
- “Both teams to score: Yes” is a good bet: West Ham have conceded goals in their last five games, Sunderland in 80% of their recent games – with odds of 2.5 vs. 2.9, everything is still open.
A glance at the table immediately adds excitement to the London Stadium: West Ham are in 18th place with 17 points and a goal difference of minus 20, five points behind Nottingham Forest above the line, while Sunderland are ninth with 33 points – level on points with Newcastle and one point ahead of Everton. On Saturday afternoon, two teams under pressure for very different reasons will face each other on the 23rd matchday of the Premier League. The first leg in August set the tone, with Sunderland winning 3-0, one of the few times West Ham failed to score in this fixture. Since then, the Hammers have too often fallen short of their own expectations, even if the 2-1 win at Tottenham recently gave them a little boost at just the right time. Sunderland appear more stable, winning narrowly 2-1 against Crystal Palace and frequently drawing, which has kept them in the upper half of the table. West Ham’s build-up play is also marred by injuries and distractions: Paquetá is out again, Fabianski remains sidelined, and there is fresh transfer turmoil surrounding Summerville, who has scored two goals and provided two assists in his last three games. At Sunderland, Le Fée has recently scored goals in consecutive games in his central role, while Brobbey offers a direct target player up front.
- Venue: London Stadium, London
- Date and time: January 24, 2026, 1:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 23)
This uncertainty also favors “Both teams to score: Yes,” because West Ham repeatedly concedes goals, but Wilson, Bowen, and Summerville pose a threat at the same time. Nevertheless, Sunderland’s tendency to draw 1X makes it a reasonable hedge.
West Ham form & record check
West Ham comes into this game on the back of an important Premier League win at Tottenham, 2-1. Summerville scored early, Wilson sealed the deal late. It was a strong performance, even if they briefly lost control after the equalizer and needed a really strong defensive phase. Before and after that, however, there were also setbacks, 1-2 against Nottingham Forest, 3-0 at Wolves, and a 2-2 draw against Brighton. A clear pattern is the start. In recent games, West Ham has often been ahead at halftime and regularly scores early, but the second halves are a problem, with late goals conceded and little control once the game turns. In each of their last five games, they have scored over 2.5 goals and conceded at least one goal, which points to open games and a defense that is still searching for stability under Espírito Santo. This vulnerability explains why West Ham are in 18th place with 17 points, five behind Nottingham Forest and only three ahead of Burnley. The pressing issue is creativity, with Paquetá out again as his back spasm continues to be monitored and his situation remains unclear. Summerville brings spark, and Wilson’s role as a super sub counts, but as long as Fabianski remains sidelined, they need much cleaner spells in front of Areola.
West Ham are likely to line up in a 4-4-1-1, with Areola behind Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Mavropanos, and Scarles. In this expected formation, Bowen and Summerville would start on the wings, with Souček and Rodríguez in the center. Pablo could play behind Castellanos, linking attacks and triggering the initial pressing. Rodríguez is likely to provide cover, with Souček repeatedly pushing past him. One clear factor is Paquetá, who, according to Nuno, will not be in the squad, so creativity will have to come from Bowen’s direct runs and Summerville’s one-on-ones. Fabianski remains sidelined with a back injury, so Areola is likely to start. If more control is needed, Ward Prowse is the most likely change in midfield, while Wilson looks like a strong option for the final stages.
Sunderland Form & Record Check
Sunderland comes to London in a solid position in the table, ninth with 33 points and a balanced goal difference, level on points with Newcastle above them and just one point ahead of Everton below. For a promoted side with a relatively modest salary structure, that’s better than most expected. Their recent run has been solid rather than spectacular, with too many draws to fully capitalize on it. Their recent performances show both their resilience and their limitations. They beat Crystal Palace 2-1, with Le Fée’s equalizer bringing calm, and Brobbey completing a comeback after the break that felt deserved. Before that, there was a 1-1 draw at Tottenham and a disciplined 0-0 draw against Manchester City, both neatly controlled but lacking any real punch up front. The outlier was the 3-0 win at Brentford, where they were caught out by carelessness. Across competitions, the FA Cup win at Everton on penalties, after a 1-1 draw and a 0-3 shootout, showed a lot of composure and a reliable goalkeeping performance under pressure. The patterns are clear in the numbers, with 80% of the last five games having under 1.5 goals at halftime, and the same for the second half, yet 80% ended up with over 1.5 goals, often because Sunderland conceded. With no injuries reported, Le Bris can focus on tightening control and moderating Isidor’s smaller role behind Brobbey amid the transfer frenzy.
Le Bris is likely to stick with a familiar 4-2-3-1, although nothing has been confirmed yet. In this prediction, Roefs is in goal, with Mukiele, Ballard, Alderete, and Mandava forming the back four. Xhaka and Sadiki would provide cover as a double six, with Hume and Mundle on the wings alongside Le Fée, who is expected to support Brobbey up front. No injuries have been reported. Ta Bi is not eligible to play in the upcoming match, so he is not expected to be involved. Tactically, the big decisions will be made in the center. Xhaka’s control should dictate the tempo, while Le Fée will operate between the lines to feed Brobbey. If Hume is indeed deployed higher up, that could tip the right side toward aggressive pressing, with Mukiele providing the necessary balance behind him.
West Ham – Sunderland Head-to-head & Statistics
In the last five encounters, West Ham have won 2, Sunderland 1, with 2 draws. The goals are almost evenly balanced, with West Ham scoring 6 and Sunderland 7, although the most recent encounter in August 2025 significantly shifts the picture with a 3-0 win for Sunderland. Before that, four games in a row were close, including two 2-2 draws. The two West Ham wins in 2016 both ended 1-0. If you exclude August 2025, the older sample from 2015 to 2017 makes it look as if West Ham were difficult to beat, unbeaten in four games, with two wins and two draws. Both wins were 1-0, which suggests set pieces or a single moment rather than sustained pressure over 90 minutes. Then Sunderland turned the script around with a 3-0 win, their only victory in this sample of five games. There is also a pattern emerging in terms of goals. West Ham scored in four consecutive matches between 2015 and 2017, a streak that only ended in August 2025 when they failed to score. Sunderland’s record is mirrored, conceding at least one goal in each of those four games before finally keeping a clean sheet. Interestingly, the second half in three consecutive games saw fewer than 1.5 goals scored.
