A relegation battle with a predictable script awaits at London Stadium when West Ham United host Nottingham Forest on Tuesday evening. Nuno Espírito Santo’s team is stuck in 18th place in the table, with 14 points and a goal difference of minus 20. Forest are in 17th place with 18 points, four points ahead of West Ham and four points behind Leeds. A supercomputer predicted exactly this scenario at the midpoint of the season, with Forest in 17th and West Ham in 18th, which shows how crucial this match is. The most recent encounters between the two clubs have been anything but quiet. All five league games during this period have seen at least two goals scored, with no draws, and Forest narrowly lead the series with three wins to two. In their most recent meeting in August, however, West Ham won 3-0 in Nottingham in a surprise victory. Since that 3-0 win, West Ham’s season has derailed. The Londoners have picked up just one point from their last five league games and were thrashed 3-0 by bottom-of-the-table Wolves on Saturday. This has raised new questions about Nuno’s tenure and a defense that has yet to keep a clean sheet under him. Forest, who exceeded expectations last season by qualifying for Europe, now travel with a run of four consecutive defeats. Under Sean Dyche, Forest rely heavily on organization and set pieces. Should Sels return behind the center-backs Murillo and Milenkovic, Dyche will demand a much calmer performance than the one seen at Villa Park. West Ham remain vulnerable from set pieces despite the aerial prowess of Soucek and Ward-Prowse, and with Pablo supporting Wilson, the attack remains more of a promise than a finished product.
- Venue: London Stadium, London
- Date and time: January 6, 2026, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 21)
The market sees Dyche’s team as slight away favorites with odds of 2.3. Their organization, their power on set pieces with Milenkovic and Igor Jesus, and their emphatic 3-0 away win at Liverpool suggest that they can overcome West Ham’s current chaos, leaky defense, and 3-0 collapse at Wolves. That points to early resilience from Forest and an open, goal-filled contest.
West Ham Form & Record Check
West Ham go into this game against Forest in decidedly shaky Premier League form. The Hammers are in 18th place in the table with 14 points, four points behind Forest and only two ahead of Burnley, after a run of one draw and four defeats in their last five league games. As a result, confidence has taken a big hit, and every game at the bottom of the table now feels like a six-point game. Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at Wolves, which gave the hosts their first league win of the season, was particularly painful. That was preceded by a chaotic 2-2 draw with Brighton, in which West Ham twice squandered a lead, a 1-0 home defeat to Fulham and a clear 3-0 defeat at Manchester City. Even the 3-2 home defeat to Aston Villa gave the impression of a team that cannot control the score. Statistically, the figures underline this trend. Under Nuno Espírito Santo, there has not been a single game without conceding a goal, and West Ham have already conceded 62 goals in the league in 2025, with only Wolves conceding more. They have gone winless in their last five league games, conceding at least one goal in each of those games and losing four of the second halves without scoring after the break. Early goals, as was the case recently at Wolves, repeatedly force the team into frantic comebacks. There is a clear imbalance in attack. Since Füllkrug went on loan to Milan, Wilson has been the only established center forward, while Summerville has scored just one league goal since his arrival. New signing Pablo brings with him a record of nine goals for Gil Vicente, but he may still need time to adapt, so much of the creative burden continues to fall on Paquetá and Bowen. Defensively, West Ham remain porous. Kilman was temporarily dropped from the starting lineup, a late mistake by Scarles against Fulham cost them a point, and with Diouf and Wan-Bissaka at the Africa Cup of Nations and Fabianski injured, the squad depth is particularly thin in defense. An analysis of their games so far shows that West Ham creates good chances in the few wins they have had, but in many other games they are hardly dangerous, so their performances fluctuate greatly. Nevertheless, there are signs of structure. Potts brings energy when he is used, Ward-Prowse and Souček can stabilize games when the team is compact, and Bowen remains a constant offensive threat. Interestingly, Nuno has won only two league games out of his first fourteen, models already see West Ham firmly in the bottom three, and the pressure at the club is correspondingly high.
West Ham are expected to stick with their 4-2-3-1 system, so the predicted starting lineup sees Areola in goal behind a back four of Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Kilman, and Scarles. Soucek and Rodriguez are likely to play as a double six in front of the defense, with Bowen and Summerville coming in from the wings and Paqueta taking on the central playmaker role behind Wilson, who remains the only established striker following Füllkrug’s loan departure. Fabianski is still out with back problems, and Diouf is away on international duty, which reduces the depth in goal and defense and makes a partnership between Mavropanos and Kilman in central defense all the more likely. Potts and Ward-Prowse are more likely options for the bench here, bringing additional energy and quality from set pieces if Nuno wants to change the rhythm of the game. Overall, this is only a predicted starting lineup, not a confirmed one.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Nottingham Forest travel to East London in significantly declining form. Since their clear 3-0 home win against Tottenham, they have suffered defeats at Fulham, a narrow defeat against Manchester City, a more worrying home game against Everton, and a 3-1 defeat at Aston Villa. Four Premier League defeats in a row have pushed them down to 17th in the table, four points ahead of West Ham and four behind Leeds, in an increasingly intense relegation battle. Their performances have been more mixed than completely disastrous. Against City, Forest played compactly and competitively at home, with the game only decided by a late set piece, and they also fought their way back to 2-1 at Villa Park before another mistake proved costly. The defeat against Everton, on the other hand, was more alarming, with plenty of possession and 52 crosses, but little real penetration. One win from five league games and not a single draw illustrate how much the results fluctuate between hope and setback. Statistically, Dyche’s Forest seem almost paradoxical. Their defensive statistics have improved since he took over, they allow fewer shots on goal, yet they have continued to concede goals in most of their last five league games, often from set pieces, including against City and Sunderland. In the opposition’s half, set pieces remain a major weapon, with 18 goals scored from them, but creativity in open play remains inconsistent. The context exacerbates the situation. Forest exceeded all expectations last season, finishing seventh and qualifying for the Europa League, so 17th place after heavy investment and three different managers seems like a significant underperformance. New signings such as Igor Jesus, Bakwa, and Anderson show flashes of their potential, but adjustment problems and the absences of Wood, Sangaré, Boly, and Yates have left their mark. The return of Sels behind a well-rehearsed back four under Dyche may be the quickest way to stabilize form again.
In our predicted lineup, Forest stick with Sean Dyche’s 4-5-1 formation. Sels is in goal behind a back four of Williams, Milenković, Murillo, and Zinchenko, a combination that brings height to Dyche’s focus on set pieces and a little more control in build-up play via Zinchenko. Williams could drop deeper at times, while Zinchenko pushes forward into midfield during longer periods of possession. In midfield, we see Douglas Luiz and Domínguez as a double six, Anderson moving between the lines, Gibbs-White taking on the number 10 role, and Hudson-Odoi moving more into the half-spaces from the left. With Sangaré and Yates still out and Ndoye injured, depth in the center remains thin, which is why we are sticking with this trio in this projection. Up front, we expect Igor Jesus to start as the center forward, as Wood and Awoniyi are out and Kalimuendo usually comes off the bench. This is only a predicted lineup, even though Dyche has several options. However, the Europa League registration list and international call-ups are hitting hard, with Aina, Hutchinson, Jair Cunha, Awoniyi, and Gunn unavailable for this competition, while Boly and Sangaré are with their national teams and Yates and Wood remain sidelined through injury. That leaves Morato, Savona, Bakwa, and Kalimuendo as the most likely substitutes to make an impact from the bench in this scenario.
West Ham – Nottingham Head-to-Head & Statistics
Over the last five Premier League encounters, Nottingham Forest leads the head-to-head record with three wins to West Ham’s two, and without a single draw. The overall goal difference is 9-7 in Forest’s favor, so the head-to-head record is quite close, even if the visitors have a slight advantage. The sequence of results paints a clear picture. West Ham first won 3-2 at London Stadium in 2023, then Forest responded with three wins in a row, two home wins in 2024 (2-0 and 3-0) and a 2-1 away win in May 2025. In August 2025, West Ham struck back with a 3-0 win in Nottingham. Goals are almost guaranteed in this fixture. All five games have seen over 1.5 goals, with four games seeing more than 2.5 goals. Forest scored in four consecutive games before failing to score in August 2025, while West Ham conceded in four consecutive games, a run that also ended with last summer’s 3-0 win. The distribution between the first and second halves is also striking. West Ham rarely started dominantly, failing to win the first half in any of these five encounters and conceding goals before the break in four games. The games usually open up after halftime, with at least two goals scored in the second half in most cases. In the short term, Forest have the slightly better record, but the two matches in 2025, each with an away win, provide a certain balance. Interestingly, Forest’s current results could weaken this slight psychological advantage, even if the consistent goal tally clearly points to another open game.
