West Ham welcomes Burnley to a direct basement battle, with both teams desperately needing points in the relegation fight. The Hammers are in 18th place with seven points, while Burnley are just ahead of them in 17th with ten points. Under Nuno Espírito Santo, West Ham recently celebrated an important first win with a 3-1 victory over Newcastle, after the team had previously only won one of ten league games and accumulated a goal difference of minus eleven. Burnley suffered a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal in their last game and are struggling with the weakest squad rating in the league and a worrying xGA value of 21.0 against massive defensive problems.
Since 2021, the two teams have met five times, with West Ham remaining unbeaten with two wins and three draws. Four of those five encounters saw at least two goals, but never more than three goals in total. West Ham benefits from home advantage and recent momentum following their win over Newcastle, but remains vulnerable defensively. Burnley is defensively vulnerable and has the statistically weakest squad in the league, making them clear underdogs.
Despite their poor form, the betting market rates West Ham as clear favorites with an implied home win probability of over 50%. Value considerations favor a home win or a home win without conceding a goal at attractive odds, while over/under markets could be guided by recent history, which has often seen two to three goals scored. The most likely outcome is a narrow home win or a draw with goals, with 2-1 or 1-1 in West Ham’s favor appearing to be the most plausible results. Uncertainty remains high due to fluctuations in form and personnel variables.
- Venue: London Stadium, London
- Date and time: 08.11.2025, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 11)
The numbers favor West Ham as the winning option at odds of 1.9 and a high-scoring game. Burnley’s defense is clearly struggling, having conceded 22 goals in ten games and an xGA of 21.0, while West Ham has recently been more stable offensively, with players such as Paquetá and Souček able to exploit the Clarets’ weaknesses. Burnley’s loss of Amdouni further weakens their last real attacking option.
There are three options that offer value as main bets: First, a home win for West Ham, as the market reflects their recent upturn and the underlying stats justify the bet given Burnley’s weak defense. Secondly, over 2.5 goals at odds of around 3.6, which is attractively priced as both teams have been scoring regularly recently and West Ham’s goals against ratio remains high, giving a good chance of a game with at least three goals. Thirdly, both teams to score, as Burnley have scored in around 80% of their recent games and can force chances against West Ham’s vulnerable defense.
Amdouni’s long-term injury weakens Burnley’s penalty area, but the team still scores frequently against weaker defenses. West Ham has defensive problems, conceding goals in their last five games, which strengthens BTTS and Over 2.5. Personnel changes, such as absences at West Ham, for example Mavropanos, or last-minute tactical changes, may influence the prediction.
Primarily, value should be sought in Over 2.5 goals and BTTS, with a home win being a suitable complementary bet at lower odds. Stake sizes should be based on personal bankroll management and any team news should be checked shortly before kick-off.
West Ham Form & Record Check
After ten games, West Ham is in 18th place with only seven points and is therefore in danger of relegation. So far, they have only managed one win in the league, along with one draw and three losses.
A clear pattern has emerged in the last five games: The Hammers have always conceded goals in the first half and were behind at halftime in four of those games. However, the defense stabilized after the break, conceding no more than one goal in the second half of these five games.
Before the 3-1 win against Newcastle, West Ham had suffered three consecutive defeats, losing 1-2 to Leeds, 0-2 to Brentford, and 0-2 to Arsenal, with the team never really finding its rhythm in these games. The home game against Newcastle brought the first win under coach Nuno, thanks to goals from Paquetá, Fernandes, and Souček in stoppage time, as well as an early lead for Newcastle, even though Newcastle performed poorly.
Personnel problems are weighing on the team: Mavropanos is out indefinitely with a torn muscle fiber, Füllkrug is unavailable due to a muscle injury and is also under criticism. On a positive note, debutant Freddie Potts impressed from the start against Newcastle.
The pattern suggests early tactical or mental problems in the starting lineup, match plan, or concentration in the first 20 to 30 minutes. Nuno seems to be making halftime adjustments that are having an effect, but in the long term, the starting phases need to be improved and injury-prone personnel issues need to be resolved.
West Ham are expected to start with their usual 4-3-3 formation. Kilman and Todibo will form the central defense, with Wan-Bissaka on the right and Diouf on the left. Alphonse Areola will be in goal.
In midfield, Freddie Potts, after a strong first full appearance, Bruno Fernandes, and Lucas Paquetá are likely to occupy the six and eight roles. Jarrod Bowen and Samuel Summerville are expected to provide pace on the wings.
Callum Wilson is set to start at center forward, as Niclas Füllkrug remains sidelined with a torn muscle bundle. His transfer apparently fell through, and a winter departure has been hinted at.
Konstantinos Mavropanos is out indefinitely with a torn thigh muscle. Otherwise, no other long-term injuries have been reported. Coach Nuno Espírito Santo is unlikely to make any changes after the 3-1 win over Newcastle and will focus on continuity and pace on the wings.
Burnley form & record check
Burnley are in acute danger of relegation, sitting in 17th place with ten points. The cushion below them is minimal, with West Ham only three points behind and Leeds just ahead of the Clarets with eleven points.
Two strong wins, 2-0 against Leeds and 3-2 against Wolves, were followed by two defeats, most recently a clear 2-0 loss to Arsenal. The vulnerability of the defense is striking: in four of the last five games, a goal was conceded in the first half. Burnley have also scored most of their goals during this period, four times in a row before the Arsenal game, which points to attacking potential but a lack of defensive stability.
Serious injuries are making the situation considerably worse. Amdouni is out long term with a cruciate ligament rupture, Roberts is doubtful with knee problems, and Beyer is still out until the beginning of January. This weakens the offense in particular. Dúbravka has had an unusually heavy workload with 41 saves from 60 shots on goal, and his form will be crucial.
In the short term, Parker needs to stabilize the defense with a more compact formation, early ball recovery in midfield, and better set-piece defense. At the same time, pragmatic offensive solutions are needed, such as transition play, crosses into the penalty area, and clear roles for the remaining strikers until injured players return.
With the current personnel problems, Burnley is in danger of remaining in the relegation zone if they cannot stop conceding early goals. Every point is particularly valuable now. If the defense becomes more stable in the short term and Dúbravka continues to perform well, at least points against direct competitors are realistic.
Scott Parker is likely to fall back on his familiar five-man defense, which has already secured a few points in the recent past. In a 5-4-1 formation, Walker, Laurent, Tuanzebe, Estève, and Hartman form the defense in front of Dúbravka, who could once again play a key role after saving 41 shots from 60 attempts. Ugochukwu, Cullen, and Florentino are set to start in midfield, with Anthony providing pace on the wing. Foster leads the attack on his own.
Beyer, Roberts and, above all, Amdouni, who is out indefinitely with a cruciate ligament rupture, are still missing. The defense remains under pressure given the difficult schedule. Broja or Tchaouna could provide fresh impetus from the bench should Parker need to make changes.
West Ham – Burnley Head-to-head & statistics
West Ham are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Burnley, with two wins and three draws. In November 2023, West Ham won 2-1 in Burnley, in March 2024 the game at London Stadium ended 2-2, in April 2022 it was 1-1, in December 2021 it was 0-0, and in May 2021 West Ham won 2-1 away.
Four of the five games saw more than 1.5 goals scored, but never more than 3.5. Both teams have scored at least once in each of the last three meetings. Overall, West Ham has scored at least one goal in four of five games, but has also conceded goals in four games.
Burnley has not beaten West Ham since May 2021, which suggests a psychological and statistical advantage for the Hammers. The data points to a higher probability of another draw or a home win, with a relatively high probability of goals, with both teams likely to score.
Likely scenarios include a narrow win for West Ham, a draw with goals, or a narrow away point for Burnley. Bets such as “both teams to score” or “over 1.5 goals” seem plausible based on recent history.
