Both teams have had a poor start to the season, with Celta de Vigo in 16th place with 6 points and Real Sociedad in 19th place with only 5 points. Only one point separates the clubs, making this duel very important in the relegation battle. The recent record clearly favors Celta, who won the last two competitive games against Sociedad: 1-0 away in May and 2-0 at home in December. The atmosphere at Balaídos is likely to be even more electric due to the almost sold-out stadium.
In terms of personnel, Celta coach Claudio Giráldez will have to do without Williot Swedberg, who suffered a torn ankle ligament in the U21 international match. Mihailo Ristić is back in training and a possible option for the starting lineup. Real Sociedad welcomes back Yangel Herrera after a long injury break, whose presence could stabilize the midfield. Tactically, Celta is likely to focus on compact defense and quick transitions, especially down the wings, to overcome Sociedad’s physically imposing defense. Real, under Sergio Francisco, is looking for stability in the center, although Herrera could bring more structure to their pressing game.
Due to their home strength, recent head-to-head record, and home crowd, the hosts are slight favorites. However, Real has strengthened its squad and can capitalize on any mistakes by Celta. A realistic prediction points to a narrow home win or a draw, such as 1-0, 1-1, or 2-1. Bettors may find value in betting on Celta to win or on “Both teams to score: Yes,” depending on the odds offered. Caution is advised with long-term bets, as the small sample size of league games and many variables such as injuries and form reduce the reliability of predictions.
- Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
- Date and time: October 19, 2025, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 9)
Both teams to score (high expectation based on recent form), over 1.5 goals in the game (at least 2 goals in total) and a home win for Celta with moderate odds of around 2.10. These three tips together paint a picture of a high-scoring game in which both teams find the net and Celta wins by a narrow margin.
The reasoning behind this is Celta’s consistent scoring and conceding in their last five games, which equates to a BTTS rate of 100%. Their home games average around 2.3 goals. Real Sociedad have conceded in 80% of their recent games, many of them from quick counterattacks, which points to defensive transition problems. Despite the absence of Williot Swedberg, Celta remain dangerous in attack with Iago Aspas. Real are missing Orri Óskarsson due to a thigh injury, Oyarzabal is not in top form, and Sadiq and Karrikaburu are not reliable alternatives, although Kubo is fitter again. The previous encounter ended 1-1, which is an indicator that both teams could score and several goals could be scored.
The home win at around 2.10 does not offer high value, but is reasonable in combination with form and home advantage. The away win at around 3.5 reflects Real’s weak phase. BTTS and Over 1.5 are statistically supported single markets with better value. The recommendation is to keep the stake moderate and, in a combination bet, to take BTTS plus Over 1.5 as the core value. The home win can be played as a supplement or as a single bet with a small stake. Betting decisions should always be made responsibly, with set betting limits and in compliance with local regulations.
Vigo Form & Record Check
After eight match days, Celta de Vigo has yet to win a game in La Liga and is in 16th place with 6 points. Notable are five consecutive 1-1 draws before the 2-1 home defeat to Elche. Defensive vulnerability combined with a lack of offensive efficiency is preventing wins, although there was certainly potential on display in the 3-1 Europa League victory over PAOK.
In their last five league games, Celta have conceded at least one goal, which points to structural problems in defense. Gaps in set pieces and transitions, as well as a lack of cover after losing possession, are evident. The red card against Lenglet in the game against Atlético made it clear that even periods of numerical superiority are not being used efficiently. Offensively, someone regularly finds the net, but there is a lack of finishing and penetration. The conversion of chances and decision-making in the final third need to be improved, especially from set pieces and on the counterattack.
The injury situation is manageable. Ristić is nearing a return, and the internationals are coming back. The only long-term absentee is Williot Swedberg with his torn ankle ligament, who will miss the game against Real Sociedad. Overall, Giráldez has options at his disposal, but he needs to find the right balance. Tactically, a more compact defensive team play with tighter distances between midfield and central defense is recommended, as well as clearer roles in pressing to avoid losing the ball in dangerous areas and targeted training work on converting chances. Set pieces need to be better organized defensively.
With the available resources and a focused tactical adjustment, the first three points are realistic, especially since the team has shown in the Europa League that it has quality. The key will be to convert numerical advantages and home games into wins again in order to avoid slipping permanently into the relegation zone.
This lineup is a prediction, not an official lineup. Claudio Giráldez is likely to stick with the 3-4-2-1 system, which gives the team defensive stability with a broad offensive approach.
Matías Radu is expected to be in goal, organizing the back three behind him. The defense will consist of Javi Rodríguez, Carl Starfelt, and Marcos Alonso as center backs. The back three allows the fullbacks to play higher up and wider, while the center backs cover the space in the middle.
In midfield, Óscar Carreira is expected to play on the right wing and Mihailo Ristić on the left as wing-backs. Ristić has returned to training and could be available for selection. In the center, we expect Ilaix Moriba to play as a box-to-box player; he is the most used outfield player this season, alongside Fran Beltrán, who links up with the attack and provides defensive cover.
In the attacking double strike force, Iago Aspas and Ferran Jutglà are expected to play behind center forward Borja Iglesias. Aspas continues to be managed meticulously, with Giráldez limiting his appearances, but he plays a key role as playmaker and second striker. Jutglà brings dynamism and space utilization, while Iglesias acts as the target man up front.
The biggest uncertainty is Williot Swedberg, who has suffered a torn ankle ligament and is likely to miss the Real Sociedad game. No suspensions have been reported. Radu, Starfelt, Swedberg, and Borja Iglesias were recently on international duty, which increases the workload. Sotelo and Javi Rueda have recovered and are available.
In the 3-4-2-1 formation, the wing-backs are expected to provide width, the back three to stay compact when the opposition has the ball, and Moriba to accelerate the transition moments as the playmaker. Beltrán secures space and distributes the ball, while Aspas acts as the link between midfield and attack.
Real Sociedad Form & Record Check
Real Sociedad are in deep crisis and are in 19th place with only 5 points under coach Sergio Francisco. Their form shows only one win in five league games and four defeats. The recurring pattern is striking: mostly balanced halves, followed by slumps. In four of their last five games, the score was tied at halftime, but in the end, the Donostiarras lost.
Of the twelve goals conceded in the league, six came from counterattacks. The typical pattern shows ball losses in the opponent’s third or during build-up play, a lack of tactical fouls, slow or disorganized backward movement, and resulting finishes in the penalty area. The example against Rayo, where the 0-1 came from a counterattack after a throw-in in the 84th minute, illustrates this recurring deficit.
The depth of the squad is limited. Orri Óskarsson is out with a recurring muscle injury to his left thigh and has only played 112 minutes since May. Jon Martín is also missing for the game against Celta, although he is back training with the team. New signing Yangel Herrera from Girona is a source of hope: he is fit again, has been training for a week and was recently on the bench. His physical tackling could stabilize the midfield, although it is still uncertain whether he will start in Vigo.
In the short term, several tactical measures are a priority: the risk in build-up play must be reduced by fewer risky passes and dribbles in the final third, clearer passing options, and longer periods of controlled possession. Defensive transition play needs situational rules for immediate backward and covering movements after losing the ball, with clear assignments for second balls. The leadership role in midfield should be strengthened by gradually bringing on Herrera to increase physicality and intensity in challenges. Increased attention is required for set pieces and throw-ins. Time-wasting and interruptions could be used to slow down opponents and minimize counterattack options.
The game at Balaídos offers opportunities, as they are only one point behind Celta, but time is running out. It is crucial to immediately close down vulnerable moments after losing possession and to occupy the midfield with more physical robustness. If this is not achieved in the short term, the table situation threatens to deteriorate further.
Coach Sergio Francisco is expected to stick with a 4-1-4-1 formation: Remiro in goal; Aramburu, Zubeldia, Caleta-Car, and Gómez in defense; Turrientes as the lone defensive midfielder; Kubo, Méndez, Soler, and Barrenetxea in attacking midfield; Oyarzabal as striker.
Absences/squad situation: Orri Óskarsson is out with another thigh muscle injury. Jon Martín is back training with the team, but his availability is still uncertain. Yangel Herrera could return after a long break, probably starting on the bench.
Real Sociedad Head-to-head & statistics
The last five competitive matches between Celta and Real Sociedad have been evenly matched: two wins each for both teams and one draw (August 2023). Celta won the last two encounters (December 2024 2-0 at home, May 2025 1-0 in San Sebastián) and is currently ahead in the form series.
The games have been mostly low-scoring: in four of the five games, a maximum of two goals were scored, with only the Copa del Rey game producing three goals. The half-time picture is striking: Real Sociedad took the lead at the break in each of the last three encounters, but lost in four of the five games without conceding a goal over 90 minutes.
Tactical implications: Real seem more dangerous at the start and can score early goals, but have problems defending these leads cleanly over the full distance. Celta are strong on the counterattack and stable in the second half, and they take advantage of this – which explains the Galicians’ recent comebacks and narrow victories.
Prediction/expectation for a future game: A close, low-scoring result is likely (under 2.5 goals). There is a good chance that both teams will score, as Real often scores early and Celta fights back as the game progresses. A realistic prediction: a close home win or draw scenario with goals at both ends is possible.
