One year after the devastating DANA disaster, Valencia welcomes city rivals Villarreal to Mestalla for an emotionally charged derby. Before kick-off on Saturday at 7 p.m., both clubs will observe a minute’s silence in memory of the victims; Valencia will take to the field wearing the traditional Senyera and will bring children from the particularly affected towns of Algemesí, Sedaví, Aldaia, and Catarroja to the stadium. Villarreal also helped rebuild sports facilities after the tragedy, contributing around €2.3 million.
In sporting terms, the contrast could hardly be greater: Villarreal are third after nine matchdays with 17 points and have their sights set on the Champions League places, while Valencia are fighting against relegation in 14th place with only nine points. The bookmakers therefore see the visitors as slight favorites, although the emotional component at Mestalla should not be underestimated. Marcelino returns with Villarreal to his old stomping ground, where he once won the Copa del Rey, and Dani Parejo faces his former club.
The most recent head-to-head matches have been evenly balanced — three draws in the last five encounters, most recently a 1-1 draw in February 2025. It is striking that goals often come after the break, and in eight out of ten games, both teams have scored. Valencia will have to build up pressure offensively, but must not open up space for Villarreal’s dangerous counterattacks.
- Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
- Date and time: October 25, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 10)
Villarreal is considered the slight favorite with odds of around 2.3, while Valencia is considered the underdog with odds of around 3.0. Particularly interesting betting options are “Both Teams to Score” (BTTS) and Villarreal’s Double Chance or a draw as a value option at around 3.4.
The BTTS argument is based on data: both teams have scored in their last four games, Valencia’s defense has conceded goals in each of their last five games, and Villarreal has conceded goals in around 80 percent of their recent appearances. The absences of Diakhaby (Valencia) until December and Logan Costa (Villarreal) reinforce the defensive vulnerability on both sides.
Historically, first halves in this fixture tend to be low-scoring: Valencia have mostly kept a clean sheet at halftime in their last five games, while Villarreal have kept under 1.5 goals before halftime in around 80 percent of their games. Around 80 percent of goals are scored after the break, which favors betting on late goals or BTTS.
Given Valencia’s form crisis — only one win in their last five games, personnel problems, and internal unrest — the double chance on Villarreal or a draw seems like attractive value. A sensible strategy could be a small bet on double chance/draw combined with a main bet on BTTS or goals in the second half. However, last-minute injury news or lineups could still change the markets.
Valencia Form & Record Check
Valencia are in a worrying form crisis after nine matchdays. With only nine points in 14th place, Carlos Corberán’s team is showing a pattern: solid first halves followed by significant slumps after the break. This problem was particularly evident against Alavés and Oviedo, as well as in the goalless draw at Mendizorroza; after structured opening phases, Valencia regularly lost control after about 20 minutes.
Tactically, the team lacks reactions to opposing adjustments, presence on second balls, and penetration in the final third. Corberán’s substitutions often had little effect because they did not bring about systemic changes or create clearly defined roles for the substitutes.
In terms of personnel, the loss of Mouctar Diakhaby until December weighs heavily — Copete (thigh bruise) and Cömert, who is waiting for his league debut, have not been able to reliably fill the gap so far. In addition, Ramazani and Ugrinic are injured, which limits offensive variability.
Valencia needs a pragmatic approach for the derby: stand compact early on, don’t give Villareal’s playmakers any space, and switch quickly when winning the ball. Set pieces could become an important weapon; the emotional support of the Curva Nord helps, but it cannot replace the necessary tactical discipline.
Carlos Corberán is likely to opt for a 4-4-2 formation. Diakhaby is out of the defense until December; Copete is expected to play alongside Tárrega despite a thigh bruise, but his fitness will be assessed shortly before kick-off. Pepelu and Guerra are expected to start in midfield, with Rioja and Danjuma on the wings and Duro and López up front. Ramazani is out with muscle problems.
Marcelino is also planning a 4-4-2 formation. Long-term absentees: Logan Costa (cruciate ligament rupture) and Willy Kambwala (thigh injury) will be out for months, forcing Marcelino to make adjustments in central defense.
Foyth and Marín are expected to start in central defense, with Veiga and Cardona occupying the wide positions. Parejo will dictate the tempo, presumably with Comesaña as his box-to-box partner. Moleiro, Buchanan, and Ilias Akhomach will provide width in attack, with Moreno and Mikautadze likely to start up front. Luiz Júnior is likely to start in goal instead of Conde. The final lineups will be announced shortly before kickoff.
Villarreal Form & Record Check
After nine matchdays, Villarreal is a serious contender for a Champions League spot: 17 points in third place and a goal difference of plus six. They are five points behind leaders Barcelona, with Atlético Madrid just one point behind them.
Their recent form has been somewhat inconsistent (one win, two draws, two defeats in their last five competitive games). The 2-2 draw with Betis was bizarre, as Villarreal squandered a 2-0 lead and missed out on a ninth consecutive home win.
Marcelino remains loyal to the 4-4-2 formation; his team is characterized by late goals: in four of their last five games, the goals came after the break, and in eight of ten games, there were fewer than 1.5 goals before halftime. Defensively, Villarreal concedes more goals in the second half.
Logan Costa (cruciate ligament rupture) and Willy Kambwala (thigh injury) are still unavailable. The offensive width depends on Moleiro, Buchanan, and Ilias Akhomach. How quickly Villarreal gets into the game and shortens its typical start-up phase will be decisive for success at Mestalla.
Formation: Marcelino is likely to stick with his usual 4-4-2.
Injuries/missing players: Logan Costa (cruciate ligament rupture, out for months) and Willy Kambwala (thigh injury) are out.
Defense: Expected center-back duo: Foyth and Marín; Veiga and Cardona on the flanks.
Midfield: Parejo as playmaker; likely to be partnered by Comesaña (strong box-to-box performances recently).
Attack: Width provided by Moleiro and Buchanan (both successful against Betis); striker duo likely to be Moreno and Mikautadze (Georgian looking to take his chances).
Goalkeeper: Luiz Júnior recently replaced Conde in goal — a sign that the Brazilian could be in the starting line-up again this time.
Valencia – Villarreal Head-to-head & statistics
The last five encounters between Valencia and Villarreal have been evenly matched: three draws and one win each for both teams. The most recent duels in February 2025 and August 2024 both ended 1-1.
The goal patterns and timing of the goals are revealing: decisive goals are often scored after the break — in three of the most recent matches, they were even scored exclusively in the second half. Villarreal scored in all five of the matches considered, Valencia in four, and Valencia conceded at least one goal in each of these matches.
The derbies have mostly been low-scoring: four out of five games had fewer than 2.5 goals, with only Valencia’s 3-1 win in January 2024 exceeding this mark. None of the last five games reached more than 3.5 goals, suggesting close, tactical duels with limited scoring opportunities.
