A historic moment is about to take place at the Estadio de Mestalla, where Valencia CF will host Real Oviedo tomorrow evening in the first direct encounter between the two teams in the Primera División. After 24 years of absence from the top flight of Spanish soccer, this duel is finally becoming a reality. Valencia, currently in 11th place in the table with eight points, are coming off a frustrating 2-2 draw against Espanyol, in which Carlos Corberán’s team failed to hold on to a 2-0 lead thanks to goals from Danjuma and Duro. Nevertheless, André Almeida’s recent contract extension until 2029 shows the club’s clear desire to focus on young talent. Real Oviedo, on the other hand, is deep in the relegation battle with only three points from six games. Their 19th place in the table reflects the enormous difficulties Veljko Paunović’s team is having in finding its feet in the Primera División, as was painfully illustrated by their recent 3-1 home defeat to Barcelona despite Reina’s early lead. The bookmakers see Valencia as clear favorites with a nearly 60% chance of winning, while Oviedo will have to do without the long-term injured Álvaro Lemos and urgently needs defensive stability and more effective integration of Hassan.
- Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
- Date and time: 09/29/2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 7)
Valencia form & record check
Valencia is currently going through a typical phase of inconsistency. With eight points from six games, the club is in 11th place in the table, level on points with Alavés above them and only one point ahead of Sevilla. Their recent record of two wins, one draw, and two defeats reflects their inconsistent form. The 2-2 draw at Espanyol four days ago highlighted both strengths and weaknesses: after Danjuma’s early lead and Duro’s equalizer in the 62nd minute, Valencia seemed to be on course, but Puado’s goal in stoppage time cost them important points. A clear pattern has emerged in the last five games, with the first half regularly uneventful and the goals coming in the second half. The 6-0 thrashing in Barcelona remains a reminder, even if such results are not entirely surprising at Camp Nou. Much more important were the convincing home wins against Athletic Bilbao (2-0) and Getafe (3-0), which showed flashes of this team’s potential. Carlos Corberán seems to be on the right track tactically, even if consistency is still lacking. With Hugo Duro and Javi Guerra, Valencia has other accurate scorers who can make the difference at crucial moments.
Valencia are expected to line up in their usual 4-4-2 formation. Coach Carlos Corberán is likely to stick with what has worked, as the system has stabilized in recent weeks. We expect Agirrezabala in goal, while the back four could consist of Foulquier, Tárrega, Diakhaby, and Gayà. The midfield will be interesting to watch. Santamaría and Pepelu could form the central axis, supported by Rioja and López on the wings. In attack, I expect Danjuma and Duro to form the strike partnership. This lineup would give Valencia the necessary balance between defensive stability and attacking power that Corberán prefers.
Oviedo Form & Record Check
Oviedo is currently going through its most difficult phase since being promoted to the Primera División. With only three points after six matchdays, Veljko Paunović’s team is in 19th place in the table and has an alarming record. In the last five league games, there has been only one win against Real Sociedad at the end of August. The recent defeat against Barcelona at their own Tartiere perfectly illustrates the current problem: although Reina took an early lead, the team completely collapsed after the break and conceded three goals. This mental weakness is clearly reflected in the statistics, as the team has not won a single game in the second half in the last five matches, while suffering four complete defeats. Particularly alarming is the fact that Oviedo has yet to earn any points away from home. The defeats at Elche, Getafe, and against Real Madrid illustrate that the team is completely unsettled when playing outside the Tartiere. With Hassan as their creative force, Oviedo certainly has individual quality, but they completely lack consistency. They are already five points behind the first non-relegation spot, which is cause for concern at this early stage of the season. Paunović must find solutions quickly to avoid falling further behind.
Veljko Paunović is likely to rely on his tried-and-tested 4-4-1-1 formation for the away game. Rondón could once again be given preference up front, supported by Cazorla in an attacking role behind him. Hassan, described by former player Tomás González as a “cabra loca,” remains a decisive factor on the wing. The defense around Bailly and Carmo seems set, while Dendoncker and Reina could provide stability in midfield. Escandell is expected to start in goal, with Moldovan on the bench. Lemos, who has been out with a long-term injury, will remain sidelined until at least the beginning of 2026 due to his cruciate ligament rupture.
H2H Valencia – Oviedo Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The two teams, Valencia and Oviedo, have never played each other before. There are therefore no direct comparisons or historical data from previous encounters between these teams. This gives tomorrow’s match a special twist, as both teams are completely unknown opponents to each other. Without any historical reference points, both coaches, Carlos Corberán and Veljko Paunović, will have to rely on their general playing philosophy and the current form of their teams. The lack of direct experience could well lead to surprises, as neither side knows what to expect from their opponent.
Valencia at 1.7 for a home win seems fair, considering that Oviedo has lost four of its last five league games, while Valencia has won its last two games at Mestalla, scoring five goals in the process. The betting market sees Valencia as clear favorites, which supports our analysis, but the real value could lie in the goal bets. The absence of Álvaro Lemos further weakens Oviedo’s already shaky defense, and when you consider that the Asturians have conceded first in all three of their away games this season, there is every reason to believe that Hugo Duro and André Almeida could strike early. The second half will be particularly exciting: Valencia have scored at least twice in 80% of their games after the break, while Oviedo have conceded in every second half of their games this season. The odds of 2.4 for over 1.5 goals after the break seem very attractive given these trends, especially as the hosts have scored seven of their last ten goals after the break.
