Valencia’s season has reached a point where a home game against Mallorca at Mestalla already feels like a survival battle, as the 17th-placed team faces the 14th-placed team with only two points separating them. On Friday evening, on matchday 17 of La Liga, Valencia are stuck on 15 points, level with Osasuna and Girona around the relegation zone, while Mallorca are just ahead on 17 points, so it’s all about places in the table, while a board that regularly talks about Europe looks back on a disappointing league campaign so far. Valencia are coming off a professional cup win at Sporting Gijón and a narrow defeat at Atlético, typical of a season with few chances but many close results, even though Beltrán, Raba, and Hugo Duro are in decent form. On the other hand, Mallorca’s league win against Elche, with goals from Morlanes, Mascarell, and Muriqi, only slightly eases the disappointment of their cup exit at Deportivo. The recent history between the two clubs promises excitement rather than spectacle, with four of the last five league games ending with a maximum of two goals. Valencia won the most recent game at Mestalla by a narrow 1-0 margin, and the head-to-head record is almost even, which is why this game is more influenced by the league table than by rivalry, although the bookmakers still clearly favor the hosts.
- Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
- Date and time: 19.12.2025, 21:00
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 17)
The hosts are coming off a Copa victory in Gijón and a streak in which they have scored in each of their recent games, mostly after the break, while Mallorca combines a 3-0 win over Elche with clear defensive weaknesses. This mix suggests that Valencia will win, over 2.5 goals will be scored, and both teams will score: Yes.
Valencia Form & Record Check
Valencia enters mid-December in a phase that shows a peculiar mix of resilience and fragility. In La Liga, they are in seventeenth place with 15 points, level on points with Osasuna above them and Girona below them, which illustrates how close the relegation zone is around them. Their last five league games have yielded only one win, three draws, and one defeat, so they are constantly looking over their shoulders. In all competitions, the picture is somewhat more favorable. they beat Sporting Gijón 2-0 away in the Copa del Rey after a controlled performance in which Beltrán and Raba looked resolute in both penalty areas, and before that they put Atlético Madrid under pressure at the Metropolitano, with Beltrán equalizing with a powerful shot before the team sat back and were ultimately punished by Griezmann. In early December, they needed extra time against Cartagena in the previous round of the cup, and in the league they shared the points with Rayo Vallecano and Sevilla, games that sum them up quite well: organized and competitive with strong second halves, but without enough sustained pressure to turn those draws into comfortable wins. Statistically, the trend is clear: Valencia has scored in each of its last five games and has scored in every second half of that run without losing in any of those phases, while the first halves remain tight, with each of those games at 0-0 or 1-0 at the break, suggesting that Corberán’s team continues to struggle to impose itself from the start. Over the season, the numbers further explain the tension: after fifteen league games, they had only 110 shots, one of the lowest figures in the league, and all of their 21 competitive goals were scored from outside the penalty area, with Duro, Danjuma, and Diego López carrying much of the load and Santamaria, Rioja, and Diakhaby contributing sporadically. Corberán has also had to deal with injuries to Dimitrievski, Cömert, and Danjuma, which has reduced his options in goal, central defense, and on the wings, explaining why he relies heavily on Agirrezabala, Copete, Gayà, and the double center of Pepelu and Santamaria. The structure is recognizable, but the margin for error is extremely small so close to the relegation zone.
Valencia are expected to stick with their usual 4-2-3-1 formation under Corberán, with Agirrezabala in goal and a back four of Foulquier, Diakhaby, Tárrega, and Gayà. Our prediction sees Pepelu and Guerra as double sixes, Almeida as central playmaker, López and Ramazani on the wings, and Beltrán, in good scoring form after his goals against Atlético and Sporting, once again as the reference in the penalty area. This is only a predicted lineup and some important players are missing. Dimitrievski, Cömert, and Danjuma are on the injury list, which is why Agirrezabala, Diakhaby, and Tárrega seem set in the defensive axis, and Ramazani and Rioja are gaining additional weight as wide options, while Santamaria and Duro could change the structure from the bench if Corberán is looking for more control or a more direct presence in attack.
Mallorca Form & Record Check
Mallorca travels to Mestalla with a mixed but slightly upward trend in form in all competitions. In their last five games, they beat Numancia 3-2 in the Copa del Rey, drew 2-2 at home to Osasuna, drew 0-0 in Oviedo, won 3-1 against Elche in the league, and then lost 1-0 at Deportivo, a game in which their early initiative failed to translate into goals. These results show a similar pattern in the league and cup, with control before the break, followed by often more chaotic second halves. In four of their last five games, the first half ended evenly and Mallorca were never behind at the break, but conceded goals before the final whistle in four of those games, suggesting that concentration and structure can slip as the game goes on. In La Liga, this is reflected in a rather unexciting, solid run of form. they are unbeaten in three league games, with draws against Osasuna and Oviedo and a 3-1 win over Elche, and are 14th in the table with 17 points, just one point behind Rayo and one point ahead of Real Sociedad. The gap to the danger zone is small, just two points ahead of Valencia, so a slump would immediately pull them back in. Individually, there are encouraging signs and underlying tensions. Morlanes, Mascarell, and Muriqi all scored against Elche, suggesting that the midfield is starting to support the offense more strongly. Pablo Torre has already played 774 minutes in 16 official games, nine as a starter, while veteran Dani Rodríguez remains sidelined and is looking to leave, and Llabres, who scored against Numancia, could also depart, although the team currently has no injuries to report.
RCD Mallorca are expected to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation, close to their usual league setup. Our expected starting eleven sees Bergström in goal, a back four of Maffeo, Kumbulla, Valjent, and Lato, Samú Costa and Morlanes as a solid double pivot, Darder as a free-roaming playmaker behind Muriqi, and Asano and Virgili on the wings providing depth and width, but this remains a predicted and not a confirmed lineup. With no injuries reported, selection issues are more about hierarchy than fitness. Mascarell has been called up by Equatorial Guinea for the Africa Cup of Nations, which is why Arrasate could rely even more heavily on Samú Costa and Morlanes in central midfield, and Dani Rodríguez is effectively out of the picture after his outburst, so he is unlikely to challenge Darder for the central creative position for the time being.
Valencia – Mallorca Head-to-head & statistics
In their last five encounters, Valencia and Mallorca have played a very close series, with Mallorca winning two, Valencia one, and two draws. A total of only eight goals were scored, and it is interesting to note that all wins went to the home team, meaning there were no away wins in this period. In 2023, Mallorca was particularly effective at home, winning 1-0 and drawing 1-1 in the two league matches on the island. Valencia stabilized the situation in 2024 with a goalless home draw, before Mallorca narrowly prevailed 2-1 at home later that year, restoring its slight advantage in the head-to-head matchup. In March 2025, the picture changed slightly, with Valencia finally celebrating a 1-0 home win, reducing Mallorca’s overall lead. At the same time, this result means that Valencia is unbeaten at home in this run with one win and one draw, while Mallorca’s two wins both came on their own turf, underlining the importance of home advantage. In terms of goals, this pairing has been consistently low-scoring, with only eight goals in five games, an average of 1.6 per game. Four of the five games ended with less than 2.5 goals, all with less than 3.5, and no game in this series was decided by more than one goal, keeping each duel open well into the game. Another clear pattern is how evenly matched the encounters were over long periods, with all five games tied at halftime and the second halves rarely opening up, with at most one goal scored after the break, which is why the first goal in the upcoming matchup could once again carry disproportionate weight.
