One point separating them at the bottom of the table, a sold-out Mestalla, and a city derby with everything to play for in the relegation battle – that’s exactly what awaits on Friday evening when Valencia CF host neighbors Levante UD. Valencia are in 17th place with 10 points, Levante are in 19th place with 9 points, so the pressure is high on both teams.
Valencia has only picked up four points in its last five league games, but has shown some stability recently, earning a 1-1 draw against Real Betis. Levante is also going through a difficult phase, suffering a clear 3-1 defeat at Atlético Madrid a week ago, but managing a surprise victory before that. Both teams are struggling with inconsistency and are urgently seeking stability.
Historically, Valencia has the upper hand. Despite their difficult season, bookmakers see the club as having the advantage, mainly because of their home advantage and their recent positive record against Levante, with Valencia remaining undefeated in the last four direct encounters. The last league match between the two ended 1-1 in April 2022, and in July 2024 they drew 0-0 in a friendly. Tactically, coach Carlos Corberán continues to rely on a compact defense, with Pepelu playing in the six position. Offensively, Luis Rioja and Hugo Duro could move into the starting lineup, but this will only be finalized shortly before kickoff. At Levante, striker Etta Eyong is the focus of attention. With six goals this season, he has already attracted the interest of bigger clubs such as Barcelona. Overall, a close, rather tactical derby is to be expected, with both sides playing cautiously. Valencia has a slight advantage due to home advantage and head-to-head record, with 1-0 or 1-1 seeming realistic results. For risk-taking bettors, a narrow home win is a possibility, but a low-scoring draw also remains a likely scenario.
- Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
- Date and time: November 21, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 13)
The data tends to support a home win for Valencia and a high-scoring game. Coach Carlos Corberán has found tactical stability with Pepelu as a key player, and possible changes with Rioja and Duro promise additional offensive momentum. Levante, on the other hand, is in a negative phase with three defeats in its last five games and is showing clear defensive weaknesses, especially in the second halves.
The bookmakers’ odds of around 2.10 also favor a home win for Valencia, which offers value from an analytical perspective. Levante is in a slump and concedes goals regularly, with at least one goal conceded in every second half of their most recent games.
The goal markets also paint a clear picture. In 80% of Levante’s recent games, there have been over 2.5 goals, with the team regularly conceding goals and scoring themselves in 4 out of 5 games. Valencia has scored more than 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5 games. This combination strongly suggests over 2.5 goals and a bet on both teams to score: yes, the classic BTTS market.
Specific betting recommendations, always taking risk into account, would therefore be: as a value approach, Valencia to win at odds of around 2.10 with a moderate stake, plus a goal bet on over 2.5 goals with strong statistical support. Alternatively or in addition, the Both Teams to Score: Yes market is also well supported by recent figures.
Despite clear trends, soccer remains unpredictable; injuries, last-minute lineups, field conditions, or tactical changes can greatly influence the outcome. Only bet amounts that you can afford to lose, and spread your bets wisely. Interestingly, some bookmakers rate home wins and away wins with similarly high odds of around 3.4, but the form analysis still justifies the focus on Valencia.
Valencia form & record check
Valencia is in deep crisis. After 12 league games, they have 10 points, which puts them in 17th place, level on points with Girona and only one point ahead of Osasuna. They have not won any of their last five league games, with two draws and three defeats. The team is virtually ineffective in attack, scoring only 11 goals in 12 games.
Their poor performance before the break is striking. In their last five games, Valencia have not scored before halftime and have never been in the lead at the break. In 80% of these games, the first half saw fewer than 1.5 goals. This fits in with Carlos Corberán’s very cautious, defensively oriented approach, which is intended to bring stability but at the same time significantly restricts the offense.
The 1-1 draw against Real Betis, with Rioja scoring the equalizer in the 82nd minute, was a small ray of hope. This contrasts with the 4-0 defeat in Madrid, the 2-0 defeat against Villarreal, and a 0-0 draw at Alavés. In the cup, there was a clear 5-0 win against third-division side Maracena, but from a sporting point of view, little can be deduced from this for the level in La Liga.
In order to increase the team’s effectiveness, Corberán is apparently considering personnel changes, such as Hugo Duro instead of Lucas Beltrán in the center of the attack and Luis Rioja instead of Diego López on the wing. The aim is to revitalize the offense without jeopardizing the defensive organization. Gradual adjustments seem sensible, such as a second striker only in certain situations or more frequent changes of pace and positional rotations in attack to limit the risk of defensive instability.
The possible consideration of signing Umar Sadiq in January seems logical. He knows the club from a loan spell and has already scored six goals last season. In the short term, an additional, dangerous center forward would help, but in the longer term, Valencia also needs more quality on the wings and in creative midfield to increase the quality of chances. This results in a few short-term recommendations: train offensive variations that do not completely expose the team, such as targeted pressing phases and fast transition play. Rotations and substitutions should be managed in such a way that Duro and, in the future, Sadiq get enough playing time. Set pieces offer a relatively quick way to score goals. And last but not least, psychological stability is important, because late goals like the one against Betis show that the fighting spirit is there.
At Valencia CF, Carlos Corberán is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation. Pepelu will take on the role of central anchor in front of the defense and organize the build-up play from the back. In attack, Luis Rioja is expected to start on the wing, with Hugo Duro acting as the lone striker and main finishing option. Uğrinic is still out with knee problems and is unavailable. The full-backs will provide width, while the wingers will drop in slightly to provide creativity in the final third and support the pressing.
Levante Form & Record Check
Levante are in 19th place with nine points and are in acute danger of relegation. Only one point separates the team from Girona, but their form is poor. Levante have picked up just one point from their last four league games and have conceded in five consecutive games, with major problems particularly evident after the break.
The defense is clearly the main problem. In four of their last five games, Levante has fallen behind in the first half, and in all five games, they have conceded at least one goal after the break. This points to structural deficiencies in the organization, combined with a loss of concentration and possibly also physical deficits in the second 45 minutes.
Offensively, Karl Etta Eyong is a clear bright spot. With 6 goals and 3 assists in 12 games and interest from several top clubs, he underlines his importance, but his output is not enough to compensate for the defensive vulnerability. In addition, Pablo Martínez will be missing in midfield until December, further weakening stability and control in possession.
Several tactical adjustments are needed in the short term. The defensive organization before halftime should be strengthened by a more compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 with two defensive midfielders closing the spaces in front of the defense. In terms of substitution management, earlier personnel changes could help, such as swapping a winger for a more defensive midfielder between the 55th and 65th minutes to cushion any slumps in the second half. Set pieces must be trained intensively, as many goals conceded indicate coordination problems with corners and free kicks. In addition, there is load management and targeted fitness work to be more robust in the final stages.
In the medium term, good injury management with a view to Martínez’s return and, if necessary, a winter transfer for the central defense or defensive midfield role are crucial. Psychological work on self-confidence and concentration can help in the short term. If the problems persist, there is a risk of further points being dropped and a tough relegation battle. However, with targeted tactical adjustments, a more stable midfield, and clever use of Eyong, successes are certainly possible that could defuse the situation.
Julián Calero is likely to stick with a 4-4-2 system for the game against Valencia. Pablo Martínez is still out with an ankle injury. Ryan will be in goal. The back four will consist of Toljan, Dela, Moreno, and Sánchez. In front of them, Álvarez, Elgezabal, Arriaga, and Olasagasti will play in midfield. Brugué and Etta Eyong are expected to start up front, with the latter having already scored six times this season and attracting interest from several top clubs. This is a predicted lineup; as usual, the final starting XI will be announced shortly before kickoff.
Valencia – Levante Head-to-head & statistics
In a direct comparison, Valencia is unbeaten in the last four encounters, with two wins and two draws. The most recent meeting in July 2024 ended 0-0, but it was only a friendly match. Valencia scored in each of the three competitive matches before that, with the 4-3 away win in December 2021 being particularly memorable. Levante has not beaten Valencia since at least 2021. In addition, Levante has conceded goals in its last three consecutive games, suggesting that Valencia is likely to find opportunities against the visitors’ defense this time around, depending on current form and tactical adjustments in the derby.
