Valencia – Real Sociedad
There are rarely many goals in this fixture, and Valencia won the last meeting 1-0, which is exactly how things are shaping up for the kick-off at Mestalla. FC Valencia welcomes Real Sociedad, Carlos Corberán faces Sergio Francisco, both with clear ideas and new momentum. It is an important opening game, with both teams looking to quickly find their rhythm and secure their place in the table.
Valencia is riding high after a 3-0 win over Torino in the Trofeu Taronja, with Santamaría, Ugrinic and Danjuma joining the team. According to CEO Ron Gourlay, the goal is to qualify for Europe. Hugo Duro has been declared fit. La Real begins a new chapter without European football, likely in a 4-3-3 formation. Gorrotxategi is doubtful, Urko or Turrientes could anchor the midfield, and Gonçalo Guedes will experience his first reunion with Mestalla.
Valencia – Real Sociedad Info
- Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
- Date and time: 16.08.2025, 21:30
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 1)
Three betting tips that go well together: Under 1.5 goals – 2nd half, Both teams to score: No and X2. The second half under 1.5 goals seems plausible because both sides are focusing on balance at the start of the season. Valencia are integrating several new signings, Santamaría, Ugrinic and Danjuma, while Real Sociedad have to cope with the departure of Zubimendi and have questions in midfield with Gorrotxategi struggling. The trend of staying under 1.5 goals in around 80% of games after the break supports this.
Both teams to score: No, based on Valencia’s improved defense in the preseason, with clear cover in front of the back line around Pepelu and Santamaría, as well as Real’s declining effectiveness in the second half. The data shows that in around 80% of games, at least one team fails to score, although Valencia’s recent vulnerability leaves a residual risk. The expected away stability under Sergio Francisco, a conservative approach to the start of the season and Valencia’s not yet fully coordinated offense, even if Hugo Duro is back in time, all speak in favor of X2. Interestingly, the return of Gonçalo Guedes to Mestalla could give Real an additional link between midfield and attack, but overall, there are many indications that this will be a close game with a high probability of a draw rather than an open slugfest.
Valencia Form & Record Check
Valencia goes into the season opener with mixed league form. The last five competitive games: 1-1 at Betis, 0-1 against Athletic, 1-0 loss at Alavés, 3-0 against Getafe, 3-2 at Gran Canaria against Las Palmas. At times efficient, then again erratic in defense. The draw in Seville looked solid, but the two defeats revealed problems in transition after losing possession.
One pattern stands out. In 80% of their last five games, there has been little action after the break, with under 1.5 goals, and Valencia have conceded a goal in 80% of those games before the final whistle. One might think that decisions tend to be made before the break. Javi Guerra is taking on more responsibility in attack, but the counter-attacking defense remains shaky, especially away from home.
In the Trofeu Taronja against Torino, the team looked fresher in the 3-0 win, and Corberán’s focus on balance was evident, despite the departures of Mamardashvili and Mosquera. Santamaría as anchor, Ugrinic as all-rounder and Danjuma for depth could sharpen the profile. Valencia are formally starting in 19th place, level on points with Sevilla and Villarreal, with the trend showing more structure but no defensive consistency yet.
Prediction for a 4-2-3-1 under Corberán. Agirrezabala in goal, Correia, Tárrega, Diakhaby, and Gayà in defense. Pepelu in the center alongside Guerra, with López, Almeida, and probably Danjuma in front of them, and Duro up front. This fits in with the recently preferred static play with clear transitions via Pepelu and diagonal runs by Danjuma into the half-space.
This remains a prediction, and changes are possible. Danjuma could also be replaced by Rioja or Canós. Santamaría and Ugrinic are fresh options as substitutes in the center. According to negotiations with Rayo, Pérez is set to leave and is unlikely to be included in the plans for the wings. Against Real Sociedad, without the questionable Gorrotxategi, Pepelu could pick up more second balls.
Real Sociedad Form & Record Check
The league form at the end of the season was mixed. There was a 0-0 draw against Athletic, then significant setbacks against Atlético (4-0) and in Madrid (2-0), plus a 0-1 defeat against Celta. The only positive result, a 3-2 win against Girona, showed that pace in depth works. Overall, the attack often looked sluggish and struggled to cope with the opponent’s initial pressure.
The patterns are clear. In four of their last five league games, La Real conceded before the break and ended up conceding the same number of goals in total. After the break, the games were largely neutralized, with four second halves ending in draws and four games seeing fewer than 1.5 goals. They never won after the break, which suggests stability but a lack of punch when games could turn.
Sergio Francisco is now reorganizing the center, especially with Zubimendi gone. Gorrotxategi is questionable, Urko could start as a six, Turrientes would be the more mobile option. The 4-3-3 formation is likely to remain in place, with Guedes providing directness and Zakharyan creativity, and without the additional burden of European competition, the team should be able to find their rhythm. In terms of the table, everything is back to square one before the start of the season, level with Oviedo and Sevilla, so the focus will be on form on the day.
We expect Real Sociedad to line up in a 4-3-3 under Francisco. Predicted starting XI: Remiro, Aramburu, Zubeldia, Martín, Muñoz, González de Zárate in midfield, Turrientes and Méndez alongside Kubo up front, with Oyarzabal as the central pivot and Gómez on the left. Martín could be given another chance, with the basic structure remaining built around Zubieta players. This is a possible lineup, not a confirmation.
Background: Gorrotxategi is still struggling with his right ankle and is unlikely to start, so González de Zárate looks likely to start in the center. After Zubimendi’s departure, Francisco is avoiding major experiments, even if a double six or a diamond formation would be conceivable. Alternatives from the bench include Barrenetxea, Guedes, or Zakharyan for the wings and half-spaces.
H2H Valencia – Real Sociedad Head-to-head & Statistics
Real Sociedad have won three of the last five encounters, with Valencia winning two and no draws. Valencia ended the streak in January 2025 with a home win after La Real had won three in a row from 2023 to September 2024, including once at Mestalla. The head-to-head record tips slightly in favor of the Basques, but without a clear advantage.
The matches have been low-scoring. Four of the five games have had fewer than 2.5 goals, three even fewer than 1.5, and none have exceeded 3.5. There has always been no more than one goal before the break. In addition, both sides have never scored in the same game. Interestingly, the second halves have ended in a draw three times recently, with Valencia failing to score after the break.
There is a pattern when it comes to home advantage. Valencia’s two wins in this period came at Mestalla, in 2025 and 2023. Real Sociedad won twice at home, in 2024, and once away, in 2023. In September 2024, La Real sent out the clearest message with a 3-0 win. Overall, small details made the difference, with a single goal often enough to secure victory.
