A title contender chasing the league leaders faces an unsettled twelfth-placed team fighting against relegation on Friday evening in Köpenick. Union Berlin are in 12th place with 15 points and a negative goal difference and welcome RB Leipzig to the Stadion An der Alten Försterei on matchday 14. For Steffen Baumgart, it’s about stopping the downward trend that is pushing Union towards a relegation battle, while Ole Werner and his team want to keep Bayern Munich’s eight-point lead within reach. The recent history between these clubs is increasingly tough. Leipzig has the slight edge in the overall record, but the last two league meetings, including a 0-0 draw in February at the same venue, ended goalless. All five of the most recent encounters have seen fewer than four goals scored, with the first halves particularly tight, suggesting a tactical battle, although Leipzig’s current offensive surge could break that pattern. Union are coming off an exhausting phase, with their DFB Cup exit after a 2-3 home defeat to Bayern, the 1-3 loss in Wolfsburg and the previous league setback against Heidenheim. They are one point behind Werder and level on points with Hamburg, just four points above the relegation zone, and both Trimmel and goalkeeper Rönnow have recently criticized the sometimes confusing pressing and the unconvincing balance between attack and defense. Leipzig, on the other hand, are traveling with a completely different energy.
- Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
- Date and time: December 12, 2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 14)
Our tips follow Leipzig’s role as favorites, but we see value in the visitors, Leipzig leading at halftime, and over 2.5 goals. Leipzig are coming off a 6-0 win over Frankfurt, in which Diomande was unstoppable, while Union’s vulnerability, with eight goals conceded in three defeats and the loss to Wolfsburg, points to a more open game in which Leipzig could take an early lead.
Union Berlin form & record check
Union enters matchday 14 in a noticeably fragile phase. Twelfth place with 15 points and a negative goal difference means that the club has retreated from a comfortable mid-table cushion to the crowded lower reaches of the table, just one point ahead of Werder Bremen, with Hamburg waiting directly behind with the same number of points, meaning that every small fluctuation now has immediate consequences. A deserved 1-0 win at St. Pauli and a 2-2 home draw against Bayern suggested that Baumgart had created stability. Then came a 2-1 home defeat to Heidenheim, a 3-2 cup exit against Bayern, in which aggressive pressing and two cross-field penalties unsettled the visitors, and finally a 3-1 defeat in Wolfsburg. Union kept pace with Bayern but stumbled against supposed equals. In their last five games, Union have scored every time, often early on, which fits with the statistics showing that they score in 80% of their first halves. Four of those games had at least three goals, yet they conceded in four of the five games, and Rönnow has conceded eight goals in the last three games. This imbalance reflects structural problems. In Wolfsburg, Union’s pressing repeatedly broke down, with players like Doekhi pushing forward aggressively while the defense remained passive, which Trimmel openly criticized, saying that too often they only provided escort protection instead of decisive tackles. Baumgart continues to search for the right mix of aggression and security, and injuries to Markgraf, Skov, and Bogdanov further limit his options, especially as Leipzig arrive on the back of a 6-0 win over Frankfurt.
Union are expected to stick with a 5-3-2 system, with our predicted starting lineup seeing Rönnow in goal behind a back five of Trimmel, Doekhi, Querfeld, Nsoki, and Köhn. In front of them, Kemlein, Khedira, and Haberer would start in midfield again, with Jeong and Ansah up front. This formation is supposed to provide more security after the recent defensive problems that Trimmel and Rönnow have openly addressed, but it is clearly a projection and not a confirmed selection. With Markgraf still out with a stress fracture and both Skov and Bogdanov unavailable, our projection relies on Köhn and Jeong for width and Ansah’s mobility rather than a classic center forward. From the bench, Schäfer and Král seem most likely to change the rhythm in midfield, while Burke or Ljubicic could be brought on if Baumgart is looking for more punch up front.
Leipzig Form & Record Check
RB Leipzig travels to Berlin in good Bundesliga form. The team is in second place with 29 points, eight points behind Bayern Munich and one point ahead of Borussia Dortmund, making them Bayern’s main rival, but they are under considerable pressure from behind. In their last five competitive games, Leipzig have recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat, suggesting that the heavy opening defeat in Munich has been processed rather than forgotten. Across the league, the 3-1 defeat in Hoffenheim also exposed defensive gaps and a lack of control in transition. Since then, they have beaten Werder Bremen 2-0 at home with a mature, patient performance, followed by a frustrating 0-0 draw in Mönchengladbach, where they dominated phases of the game but lacked clarity in the final third, before the 6-0 win against Frankfurt had an almost liberating effect. Across all competitions, the 3-1 win over Magdeburg in the DFB-Pokal underlined the seriousness with which Leipzig are approaching the cup, with Nusa shining with two goal contributions. The numbers confirm the impression, with more than one goal scored in 80% of their last five games and Leipzig also scoring in 80% of those games. Three clean sheets in their last four league games also point to growing defensive stability. Individual form is also outstanding, with Diomande scoring six goals and providing three assists in 13 Bundesliga games, crowning this with a hat-trick against Frankfurt. No wonder Bayern are watching him, but his impending absence due to the Africa Cup of Nations could test the squad. Nusa’s absence, injuries to Baku and Henrichs, Haidara’s agreed transfer to Lens, Kampl’s special leave, and Bitshiabu’s lack of full fitness further limit Werner’s flexibility.
Leipzig are expected to stick with a 4-3-3 formation under Ole Werner, with Gulácsi in goal behind a back four of Nedeljkovic, Orban, Lukeba, and Raum. In our predicted line-up, Seiwald anchors the midfield, flanked by Schlager and Baumgartner, which should give the full-backs enough stability to push forward boldly. but this remains a projected lineup and not an official club announcement. In attack, we see Bakayoko and Diomande wide around Harder, which would once again place a lot of finishing responsibility on Diomande after his recent hat trick and the transfer rumors surrounding him. With Nusa and Werner out, Baku and Henrichs missing on the right and Bitshiabu not fully fit, Leipzig are short on options, so Kampl’s special leave further limits Werner’s flexibility.
Union Berlin – Leipzig Head-to-head & statistics
In the last five Bundesliga encounters, RB Leipzig leads the mini-series with two wins, two draws, and one defeat. Union Berlin’s only success in this period dates back to 2023 and came away at Leipzig. Since then, Leipzig has won twice and the teams have shared two goalless draws. The scores were mostly close overall, with all five games ending with fewer than four goals in total, three of which produced at least two goals. The most decisive result came in 2023, when Leipzig won 3-0 in Berlin, followed by a 2-0 home win in 2024, but often neither team was able to pull away, making individual mistakes and set pieces particularly influential. The first halves followed a remarkably consistent pattern, with all five encounters seeing less than one and a half goals in the opening period and Union failing to score before the break in any of them. Leipzig did not concede a goal in any of these first halves, so the games usually only opened up after the break, when legs became tired and space opened up. From 2023 to early 2024, there was a series of three games in which Leipzig scored in each match and Union conceded a goal in each, all with at least two goals in total. Since then, the tide has turned again with consecutive 0-0 draws in 2024 in Leipzig and in February 2025 in Berlin. The venue was not a decisive factor, even though Leipzig performed slightly better in Berlin, with a win in 2023 and a draw in February 2025, while Union’s only success in this series came away in Leipzig. Perhaps the psychological advantage weighs less here than the first goal, as the statistics suggest that it is particularly difficult to catch up in this duel.
