Only two points and four places separate Udinese and Lazio Rome ahead of this clash, which could shape the 17th matchday of Serie A in Udine on Saturday at the Bluenergy Stadium, Stadio Friuli. Lazio are chasing Como, while Udinese are defending a narrow cushion over Torino, so this encounter almost seems like a quiet indicator of the direction both teams are heading in. Udinese are coming off a chaotic 5-1 defeat at Fiorentina, marked by Okoye’s early red card after a big chance against Napoli had already been missed, with their recent Serie A form clearly falling short of expectations. Lazio travel after a tired 0-0 draw with Cremonese and remain inconsistent overall. The last direct duel in March ended 1-1, and in the last five meetings, both teams have recorded two wins and one draw each. Interestingly, both coaches have to juggle with absences. Runjaić will be without Zemura, Modesto, Atta, and Bayo, partly due to the Africa Cup of Nations, while Sarri travels north with a depleted midfield without Dele-Bashiru and Dia. This could push Lazio towards a more pragmatic approach with two strikers and add an extra layer of uncertainty to an already finely balanced game.
- Venue: Bluenergy Stadium – Stadio Friuli, Udine
- Date and time: December 27, 2025, 6:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 17)
Analytically, tips on Lazio Rome to win, under 2.5 goals and a draw at half-time add up to a scenario that the betting market is only partially pricing in. Lazio Rome is at around 2.5 in a very balanced trifecta, with the draw at 3.0.
Udinese Calcio form & record check
Udinese goes into round 17 in twelfth place with 21 points, a goal difference of minus ten underscoring its defensive problems. The Friulani are level with Cremonese and only one point ahead of Torino, so a single result could move them up or down several places in the table. Their form in Serie A has been inconsistent, with two wins and three defeats in their last five league games. Their recent performances reflect this: a 2-0 win in Parma was followed by elimination from the Coppa Italia after a 2-0 defeat at Juventus and a 2-1 slip-up at home against Genoa. The 1-0 win against Napoli felt like a new beginning, based on defensive discipline, but the 5-1 collapse in Florence quickly erased that feeling. In Florence, Okoye’s early red card after seven minutes shaped the entire course of the game, with Sava subsequently beaten by a central free kick that should probably have been defended better. Even with the numerical disadvantage, Udinese looked disorganized in transition and weak in tackles, conceding repeatedly before Solet’s long-range shot offered only brief consolation in a very one-sided game. Statistically, the picture is clear. In their last five games in all competitions, there has not been a single draw, only wins or losses. Four of these games ended with at least two goals in total, yet four of the five first halves remained under one and a half goals, meaning Udinese often go into the break with a narrow lead before the game opens up afterwards. In four of the five games, they also scored, almost always after the break. The exception was the 2-0 defeat at Juventus in the Coppa Italia, their only recent game without a goal and another sign that they still struggle when the level of the opposition rises. Runjaić continues to search for consistency, and the constant unrest surrounding the team could be part of the problem. The club has just ended the legal dispute over Okoye to avoid distractions, while injuries to Atta and Zemura and international call-ups for Modesto and Bayo reduce the options. Udinese have exceeded expectations only in phases so far, but not over an entire month.
In my predicted lineup, Runjaić’s Udinese remain in a 3-4-2-1 formation, built on a back three of Kristensen, Kabasele, and Solet in front of Okoye. On the wings, Zanoli and Kamara provide width as wing-backs, with Karlström and Piotrowski working in the center, while Ekkelenkamp and Zaniolo Davis support as the lone striker in the central channel. This structure keeps Zaniolo close to goal and provides additional creativity between the lines behind Davis. The biggest uncertainty in this predicted starting lineup concerns the goal, as Okoye was sent off in the 5-1 defeat at Fiorentina and is likely to be suspended, which is why Sava could be given the nod. Zemura is out with muscle problems, Atta is unavailable due to a thigh injury, and Modesto and Bayo are at the Africa Cup of Nations, limiting the alternatives on the wings and up front.
Lazio Rome Form & Record Check
Lazio Rome comes to Udine with a mixed but stable run of two wins, two draws, and one defeat in its last five games in all competitions. The 1-0 win against Milan in the Coppa Italia showed character and compactness, but in Serie A, the 0-0 draw against Cremonese exposed the familiar limitations in breaking down deep-lying defensive blocks, despite clear territorial control and an active attacking line with Cancellieri, Castellanos, and Pedro. Statistically, Lazio are in an extremely low-scoring phase. None of their last five games have had more than 2.5 goals, with four of them seeing a total of one goal or less. Every first half ended evenly, and all second halves remained below 1.5 goals. Interestingly, Sarri seems to have tightened up the defensive block, but the price is a significant decline in offensive unpredictability. In the league, the reaction to the 1-0 defeat in Milan was muted but positive. Lazio are unbeaten in their last three Serie A games, with a 1-1 draw against Bologna, a 1-0 win in Parma and a 0-0 draw against Cremonese. This small run has taken them to eighth place with 23 points, one point behind Como and one ahead of Atalanta, in the middle of a tight mid-table. Sarri is managing this phase with a decimated midfield. Training has been without Rovella, Basic, and Guendouzi, while Dele-Bashiru and Dia are away in Morocco for the Africa Cup of Nations. The expected return of Zaccagni and possibly a call-up for Isaksen push him more towards a 4-4-2 rather than the usual 4-3-3. This change could bring width and momentum, but it does not necessarily solve Lazio’s creative problems. Off the pitch, Lazio is trying to use this phase as a fresh start. The club has thanked its supporters in an open letter and, with the transfer ban lifted, can finally plan January signings according to Sarri’s wishes. An experienced midfielder has publicly emphasized that the project depends on the coach, suggesting a united dressing room, even if recent lackluster performances mean that results will soon have to match the rhetoric.
I expect Lazio to switch from their usual 4-3-3 to a 4-4-2. My initial prediction saw Provedel behind Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, and Pellegrini, with Zaccagni and Noslin on the wings, Cataldi alongside Guendouzi, and Cancellieri supporting Castellanos. According to recent reports, the central position now seems more suited to Vecino, but the basic formation should remain the same. However, this remains a prediction. There is a shortage of personnel in midfield, with Rovella missing, Dele-Bashiru and Dia at the Africa Cup of Nations, reports ruling out Basic and Guendouzi, while Isaksen continues to manage his adductor problems. Gigot is on the mend, so Gila and Romagnoli look set to start in central defense. In attack, Pedro or even an unfit Isaksen could be given the nod.
Udinese Calcio – Lazio Rome Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record in the last five Serie A meetings since 2023 is remarkably even, with two wins apiece and one draw. Lazio won the first two encounters, both in Udine in 2023 and 2024. Udinese then won the next two games in 2024, before the score was 1-1 in Rome in March 2025. Each game was decided by a single goal or ended in a draw. A clear pattern of close results is also evident in the statistics. All five games ended with under 3.5 goals, but four of them had at least two. Overall, each side scored six goals and conceded six during this period, meaning the goal difference is completely even. Only once did a team fail to score, Udinese in their 1-0 defeat in 2023, which further underlines the balance. The picture is similar in terms of the course of the game. In four of the five encounters, the first half remained below 1.5 goals, with the action only opening up in the second half. Lazio scored in all five games and scored after the break in four consecutive games. Udinese conceded a goal in every game and also conceded one in the second half in the same four games. The results by venue add another nuance. Lazio won two of their three away games in Udine during this period, while Udinese picked up four points from their last two trips to Rome. Both teams will likely approach the next encounter with respect for this recent balance and expect another compact duel in which a single goal could tip the scales.
