Udinese – AC Milan
The almost sold-out Bluenergy Stadium promises a special atmosphere for Zaniolo, who is set to make his home debut. Udinese welcomes AC Milan tomorrow evening in a clash between two in-form teams that have so far achieved their season goals. The Friulians sit in 4th place with seven points after three matchdays, while Milan are just one point behind in 5th. Interestingly, the bookmakers see the visitors as clear favorites despite this minimal difference.
The hosts can look back on an impressive start to the season. Last weekend’s 1-0 win in Pisa, scored by Iker Bravo, underlined Kosta Runjaić’s team’s flawless home record so far. The Croatian coach is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested system, even though he is missing key players Okoye, Lovrić, and Padelli due to suspension.
Milan travel to Udine after a narrow 1-0 win over Bologna, with Modrić’s first goal in a Rossonero shirt making the difference. However, Maignan’s injury marred the victory, and Allegri’s sending-off caused additional unrest. The head-to-head record clearly favors Milan: they have won four of the last five encounters, including a resounding 4-0 victory in April. Neither team has drawn a game this season, which suggests this will be a decisive match.
- Venue: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
- Date and time: 20.09.2025, 20:45
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 4)
Udinese Calcio Form & Record Check
The Friulians are in impressive early form and are deservedly in 4th place in the table after three matchdays. With seven points, they are only one point behind third place, while they are one point ahead of Milan. The recent 1-0 win in Pisa confirms the stability under Kosta Runjaić. Iker Bravo saved the Bianconeri in the 14th minute, but the nature of the victory was characteristic of Udinese’s current form: controlled, but not without nervousness. Coach Runjaić admitted after the game that the team had made life unnecessarily difficult for themselves.
The Friulians’ offensive consistency is remarkable. They have scored in all five of their most recent games, which is impressive for a team of their stature. At the same time, they have shown remarkable strength in the first half: they have led at halftime in four of their last five games and have never lost the first half during that period. However, personnel issues are a cause for concern. In addition to suspended regular goalkeeper Okoye, Lovrić and Padelli are also missing. Runjaić will likely stick with the formation that remained unbeaten in the first three league games. The home game against Milan could be the first indicator of whether this impressive start to the season is more than just a flash in the pan.
After the successful 1-0 win in Pisa, coach Runjaić is likely to stick with the tried-and-tested 3-5-2 formation. The still unbeaten backbone of the first three matchdays has proven to be stable and is likely to be used against Milan as well. Sava will continue to be in goal, as regular keeper Okoye has to serve his suspension imposed by the sports court. Ehizibue, Bertola, Kristensen, Solet, and Kamara could form the defensive trio. Karlström, Atta, and Piotrowski are likely to occupy the midfield.
Up front, the striking duo of Iker Bravo and Davis should once again be given preference after scoring the decisive goal in Pisa. Zaniolo, whose home debut is eagerly awaited by the fans, is likely to start on the bench but could provide important impetus as the game progresses. Lovrić’s absence due to muscle problems limits the options in midfield.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
AC Milan have been somewhat inconsistent in this early stage of the season, although their recent performances have been more encouraging than their bumpy start. After a 2-1 home defeat to Cremonese in their opening game, Massimiliano Allegri’s team has stabilized and picked up two important wins. The 2-0 away win in Lecce was solid but not exhilarating. Symptomatic of Milan’s current form is the subsequent 1-0 win against Bologna. Luka Modrić scored his first goal for the Rossoneri, but the game was marked by missed chances.
Milan hit the woodwork twice, while Santiago Giménez came close on several occasions. Efficiency in front of goal remains the biggest shortcoming of this still young season. Added to this are personnel concerns: Mike Maignan injured his thigh against Bologna and had to be substituted at half-time. The statistics from the last five games reveal a team that often decides its games after the break. Four of the five wins came from goals in the second half, with Milan still level at half-time in each of those matches. This patience could become the norm under Allegri, who is known for his tactical discipline.
The Rossoneri are likely to line up in their tried and tested 3-4-2-1 formation, although Allegri will not be on the sidelines due to his red card against Bologna. The sending-off came after a controversial VAR decision when a penalty was overturned. In defense, the injury to regular keeper Maignan, who suffered a calf injury against Bologna, could see Pietro Terracciano between the posts. The back three of Tomori, Gabbia, and De Winter seems set, while Estupiñán and Saelemaekers are likely to occupy the flanks.
In midfield, Fofana and Modrić, who is yet to score against Bologna, will form the center. The offensive line-up will be interesting: Loftus-Cheek and Rabiot could play behind striker Giménez, with stars such as Leão and Pulisić initially taking their places on the bench. Pavlović and Jashari are two important options who are out due to injury.
H2H Udinese Calcio – AC Milan Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent record between Udinese and AC Milan paints a surprising picture. In the last five encounters since 2023, the Rossoneri have managed three wins, but the Friulians have inflicted two painful defeats on them. All five matches ended without a draw. AC Milan last dominated in April 2025 with a clear 4-0 away win and also won narrowly 1-0 in October 2024. In between, however, there was a dramatic 3-2 defeat in January 2024, in which Udinese showed fighting spirit despite the loss.
Udinese’s home wins against Milan are particularly noteworthy. In November 2023, they won 1-0 at San Siro, and even more impressive was their 3-1 home win in March 2023. These successes show that the Zebrette certainly have what it takes to upset even top teams. A striking pattern emerges in the course of the game: Udinese has scored regularly against Milan in three encounters, but has conceded goals in the first half in four of the five duels. Milan usually starts these games strongly, which could be seen as a tactical hint.
The first tip on “Under 2.5 goals” reflects the defensive qualities of both teams: Udinese have conceded only one goal in their last four games, while Kristensen has an impressive average of over 11 clearances per game in central defense. Milan have also shown a controlled approach with few goals in four of their last five league games, underlining Allegri’s pragmatic approach to away games. Maignan’s absence could lead to more uncertainty, but Terracciano brings experience and the Rossoneri are likely to play more cautiously. The betting markets clearly favor Milan at 1.8, but analysis reveals some interesting value opportunities: The tip for an Udinese win at 4.3 reflects the fact that the Friulians have already beaten Inter and will be able to field Zaniolo for the first time in front of a sold-out crowd. “Both teams to score: Yes” at 1.9 seems solid, as both attacks have never come up empty this season and Bravo and Giménez have recently proven their accuracy. The combination of Udinese’s home strength and Milan’s personnel concerns makes this encounter more unpredictable than the clear odds suggest.
