Bottom-of-the-table Turin welcomes league leaders Napoli to the Stadio Olimpico di Torino on Saturday evening, and the omens could hardly be more different. While Turin languishes at the bottom of the table with just five points and a goal difference of minus eight, Napoli sits atop Serie A with 15 points. Recent history also favors the Azzurri, who have won three, drawn one, and lost only one of their last five head-to-head matches against Turin.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin
- Date and time: October 18, 2025, 6:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 7)
1) Favorite to win: Napoli (odds ~1.8): Napoli is the clear favorite on the market, and this assessment seems justified. Despite Lukaku’s absence, Højlund has seamlessly taken over with four goals in six league games. Torino has major offensive problems, has not scored at home so far, and will have to do without Ivan Ilić. In addition, Napoli is undefeated in the last five head-to-head matches.
2) Over 2.5 goals (odds tend to be attractive): A high-scoring game is realistic. Napoli has offensive strength but has conceded goals in five consecutive games. Torino showed in its 3-3 draw with Lazio that it is dangerous on the road. Defensive absences on both sides (Rrahmani for Napoli, Schuurs for Torino) increase the likelihood of multiple goals. In addition, Conte could rotate his squad ahead of the upcoming Champions League game, which could weaken the defense.
3) Both teams to score (BTTS), risky but plausible bet: Torino’s home slump makes this bet somewhat risky, but their recent goals (e.g., three goals in Genoa) and Napoli’s defensive vulnerability suggest they will concede a goal. Those who want to bet against the market trend will find arguments here for an open, high-scoring duel.
4) Risk warning: Betting markets reflect probabilities, not certainties. Injury updates, lineups, and last-minute tactical decisions (e.g., rotation) can quickly change the assessment. Bet responsibly and only with amounts you can afford to lose.
Turin Form & Record Check
After six matchdays, Torino is in 16th place with only five points. Their recent record (two wins, one draw, two losses) and zero goals scored at home show that the team is struggling both offensively and defensively. Advancing in the Coppa Italia against Pisa remains a small ray of hope, but it does not overshadow the ongoing problems in Serie A.
The defensive performance has been the worst in the league so far: repeated goals conceded, a lack of stability and uncertainty in the goalkeeper position (Israel has just returned from international duty) are clear weaknesses. The match at Lazio (3-3) illustrates the dilemma: fighting spirit and comebacks meet glaring defensive errors and unrest (five yellow cards).
The situation is exacerbated by several absences (Ilić, Ismajli, Schuurs, Anjorin, Savva), with the loss of Ilić in midfield weighing particularly heavily. This reduces tactical options and makes it difficult to regain compactness and balance between defense and offense.
Short-term measures that coach Baroni should consider: 1) Simplify the defense, with a more stable back four and clearer covering duties; 2) Communicate the goalkeeper situation openly and clearly, managing workload after international matches; 3) Strengthen midfield protection (defensive midfielder as a link between defense and offense); 4) Focus offense on set pieces and crosses to quickly break the home goal curse; 5) Personnel planning: consider short-term loan or rotation options to compensate for absences.
Outlook: Despite the crisis, the gap to Fiorentina is only two points, which shows that a small series of positive results can quickly ease the situation. The key is rapid defensive stabilization, smart personnel decisions, and psychological measures to regain confidence (especially at home). If these priorities are implemented, short-term improvements are possible; otherwise, the downward spiral threatens to deepen.
Coach Marco Baroni is likely to stick with the 3-5-2 system that has recently brought stability to Turin. Maripán, Coco, and Tamèze are expected to form the back three, with Israel starting in goal.
Ivan Ilić (calf problems) and Anjorin and Ismajli (injured). Casadei and Asllani could therefore take over in the center, supported by Pedersen and Lazaro on the wings. Vlašić will be assigned an important creative role in attacking midfield.
Zapata and Ngonge are expected to start up front; alternatively, Adams is ready to come off the bench and provide some impetus. Israel recently emphasized that he deliberately chose to move to Turin in order to gain playing experience ahead of the World Cup.
Napoli form & record check
In a nutshell: Napoli are currently joint top of Serie A with AS Roma (15 points, goal difference +6). Form: three wins from the last four league games, no draws in the last five competitive games, i.e. clear results, but often close.
Strengths: Offensive quality is there, with Napoli scoring in four of their last five games. Højlund is justifying his loan with important goals. The team shows mental strength to come back from behind (e.g., victory against Genoa).
Weaknesses: Defensive vulnerability, conceding at least one goal in each of the last five games. Lack of consistency: Victories are often narrow and not achieved in commanding fashion against supposedly weaker opponents (e.g., 3-2 against Pisa). In many games, Napoli scores less than 1.5 goals in the first half and plays stronger in the second half.
Personnel problems: Important absences are weighing on the squad: Lukaku (thigh) until mid-December, Lobotka (adductors) until early November, Rrahmani (thigh) until late October, Contini (broken hand) also out. Consequence: Midfield and attack have to improvise; Gilmour, McTominay, and the new De Bruyne are carrying more responsibility. Positive signs: Juan Jesus emphasizes stability and cooperation with Beukema, but the defense remains vulnerable.
Tactical implications: Conte seems able to react, with more goals often coming after the break (tactical adjustments or fitness advantage). However, the Azzurri urgently need defensive balance and consistency to underpin their title ambitions. Further absences could force Conte to adopt more defensive formations or rotate in midfield/attack.
Outlook/expectations: In the short term, Napoli remain favorites in many Serie A matches, but they still have some catching up to do at European level against top opponents (e.g., Manchester City exposed their problems). As long as the defense does not become more stable and key players are missing due to injury, close results and occasional surprises are likely.
Recommendations (short): 1) Focus on defensive stabilization (set-piece organization, backward movement of the wing forwards). 2) Wait for injured key players to recover and gradually return; rotation is advisable. 3) Pay special attention to second halves: use opponent analysis and physical preparation to maintain the advantage.
Napoli are expected to line up in their usual 3-4-2-1 formation. However, coach Antonio Conte has to replace several key players: Lukaku is still out after his serious thigh injury (comeback in the Supercoppa in mid-December at the earliest), and Lobotka (adductors) and Rrahmani (thigh) are also missing. Buongiorno could return in time after overcoming his injury.
Juan Jesus, Buongiorno, and Di Lorenzo are therefore expected to form the back three. Gilmour is set to replace Lobotka in defensive midfield and will be supported by Anguissa. Mazzocchi and Spinazzola are expected to start on the wings. De Bruyne and Lang are likely to occupy the two attacking midfield positions behind center forward Højlund.
Højlund has so far proved to be a successful replacement for the injured Lukaku, scoring four times in six league appearances. Personnel decisions still depend on Buongiorno’s fitness and any further absences.
H2H Turin – Napoli Head-to-head comparison & statistics
Record of the last five games: Napoli three wins, Turin one win, one draw. Latest encounters: April 2025 Napoli 2-0 (H), December 2024 Napoli 1-0 (A).
Outliers/evidence of Turin’s potential: In January 2024, Turin won 3:0 at home; in March 2024, the game ended 1:1. About two and a half years ago, Turin lost 0:4 at home.
Goal statistics: At least two goals were scored in four of the last five games, but most games remained below 3.5 goals. The second half has been particularly high-scoring: in the last three encounters, more than 1.5 goals were scored in each game.
Goals per team: Napoli has scored in four of five encounters; Torino has failed to score in the last three games. This speaks for Napoli’s more consistent scoring power in direct encounters.
Conclusion: Napoli is the clear favorite in the recent series, has more consistent scoring rates, and has won the most recent head-to-head matches. However, Torino has proven that it can be very competitive when performing well (e.g., Jan 2024); goals in the second half are a recurring pattern in this pairing.
