A slip-up in Turin could deal a serious blow to AC Milan’s Scudetto hopes, and it is with this pressure that the team travels to the Stadio Olimpico di Torino on Monday. In Serie A, Milan are in second place with 28 points, level on points with Napoli and two points behind Inter, while Torino are in 13th place with 14 points and a goal difference of minus 11, stuck in mid-table. The Rossoneri have often struggled at the Grande Torino recently, with the hosts winning 2-1 at home in February and 3-1 in May 2024 last season. Overall, the record from the last five direct encounters is even, with two wins and one draw each. What is striking is the pattern that Milan tends to score after the break in these encounters, while Torino has conceded goals in each of these games and has looked particularly vulnerable in the second halves. Formally, Milan comes into the game on the back of a win, win, draw, win, draw run, which is a solid foundation, even if the team appears vulnerable at crucial moments, as demonstrated by the narrow 1-0 league win against Lazio and the 1-0 defeat in the Coppa Italia game against the same opponent during the week. Massimiliano Allegri will be suspended for the match in Turin, so the coaching team will have to direct the game from the bench, while Torino are looking for stability after five league games without a win, with a run of defeat, defeat, draw, draw, draw and a late 2-1 defeat in Lecce after a missed penalty in injury time. Samuele Ricci’s return to his old stomping ground after moving to Milan last summer adds an extra emotional touch, and Torino are still reeling from Kristjan Asllani’s missed penalty, which could have an impact if he is fit in time. As usual, Milan will rely on players who can make an impact, especially in the second half, while Allegri’s suspension means that the coach and his assistants will take on a more prominent role in setting the pace. Torino, meanwhile, will be looking to the players who were instrumental in their previous surprise victories at the Grande Torino to once again demonstrate their home strength in order to upset a title contender and climb the table.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin
- Date and time: December 8, 2025, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 14)
Milan are joint second with Napoli on 28 points and are well organized away from home, with their structured defensive work reducing variance and increasing the likelihood of AC Milan winning and taking all three points in Turin. In terms of the goals market, there is a lot to be said for selecting under 2.5 goals, as Milan has been defensively disciplined in the second half of recent matches and has never conceded more than one goal in this phase, effectively playing with a 100% under 1.5 goals rate in the second halves, while Turin recently played 0-0 against Juventus and Bologna, among others, confirming the tendency toward low-scoring games. A more risky value option is a half-time win for AC Milan, because the Rossoneri have scored early in four consecutive games and often build pressure from the start, while Turin’s games have recently been tied at halftime in around 80% of cases and the team has to do without the offensive presence of Giovanni Simeone, which reduces their ability to respond quickly. Combined with the strong form of Christian Pulisic, who regularly provides early offensive action, this results in a market with higher variance but an interesting value opportunity, provided you are willing to accept the additional risk.
Turin Form & Record Check
Turin is in 13th place in the table with 14 points, just one point ahead of Lecce, and has been waiting for a win for five league games, with three draws and two defeats ruthlessly exposing its weaknesses. Their most recent performances in particular have shown defensive instability, such as the 1-5 home defeat against Como, as well as poor game management, as four of their last five games were tied at halftime without the team being able to convert these starting positions into victories or at least manage them safely after the break. Their goal difference of minus 11 is among the worst in the league, and missed key moments such as the penalty kick in stoppage time in Lecce have cost them points and confidence. In addition, Turin conceded five goals at home against Como and two goals in 22 minutes at Lecce, while less than 1.5 goals were scored in the second half in 80% of their most recent games, which, despite the low number of goals, points to problems in the final phase and in game management. In terms of personnel, the loss of Simeone with his thigh injury, expected to keep him out until mid-December, weighs heavily, as does Schuurs’ long-term knee injury, and with Saúl Coco, Masina, and Aboukhlal on provisional AFCON lists, there is a threat of further losses between around December 15 and mid-January, which is problematic given the already limited defensive depth, even if the gap to Atalanta in 12th place is only two points. In the short term, therefore, clear measures are needed: the defense must act more compactly again and fall back more consistently into a medium or deep block in the second half to avoid large spaces between the lines, especially against opponents who exploit late transitions. At the same time, a clear organizer should be appointed in midfield or as captain to control the tempo, fouls, and rhythm after the break, while in training the focus should be more on set pieces, both defensively and offensively, as this is where decisive goals have been conceded recently. In addition, targeted penalty and finishing exercises under pressure are useful, ideally in simulated scenarios shortly before the end of the game, in order to rebuild confidence in tricky moments, and a more active substitution strategy, with physically strong, defensively oriented players coming on around the 60th to 65th minute when a draw or lead needs to be secured, rather than waiting until late in the game. Operationally, the club should simultaneously accelerate medical and fitness-related return processes where responsible, such as with Simeone, consider loan and January options for short-term defensive reinforcements, and consider sports psychology support to help players process mistakes and missed opportunities, with short-term stability clearly taking precedence over stylistic experiments until the situation surrounding AFCON and injuries has been clarified. Overall, the problems seem solvable, but the urgency is high, as defensive stability and better game management after halftime are the most obvious levers to stop the negative trend and stabilize results before the AFCON window. Indicators of success for the next four to six games include a significant reduction in the number of goals conceded, ideally to no more than one goal per game, converting halftime ties into at least controlled draws or wins, improved penalty conversion in pressure situations, and as few points lost as possible from leads or ties after the break.
Turin is expected to line up in its usual 3-4-2-1 formation, with Israel in goal in front of a back three of Tameze, Maripán, and Coco. On the wings, Pedersen and Nkounkou will provide width as wing-backs, while Asllani and Gineitis will maintain the balance between defense and build-up play in the center. In front of them, Vlašić and Casadei are expected to play in the attacking midfield and second striker roles respectively, supporting Adams up front with passes between the lines and overlapping runs. Simeone is still out with a thigh injury, which significantly reduces the options in attack, and Schuurs is also unavailable after his knee surgery, but apart from these absences, the defense looks relatively solid, and the predicted starting eleven suggests continuity rather than major tactical experiments.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
AC Milan are level with Napoli on 28 points, two points behind Inter, and have reinforced their place in the title race with three wins in their last four Serie A games, including a 1-0 derby win over Inter and a narrow home win over Lazio, even though the gaps at the top remain small and details are likely to make the difference. More recently, the Rossoneri have shown a knack for close, low-scoring games, with four of their last five games in all competitions ending with just a one-goal difference, and during this period they have never conceded more than one goal after the break, underlining the improved organization under Massimiliano Allegri and the strong form of goalkeeper Mike Maignan, who stood out in November with important saves, including penalties. However, the Coppa Italia defeat to Lazio, just days after a league win against the same opponents, also exposed vulnerabilities, particularly when rotation is required. Mattia Zaccagni’s late header ended Milan’s unbeaten run since August and revealed that depth behind the starting lineup remains an issue, especially with a busy schedule. The personnel situation is also delicate ahead of the trip to Turin. Allegri will be missing from the sidelines due to a suspension following a VAR-related incident in the Lazio game, while injuries to Youssouf Fofana and Santiago Gimenez limit the options. Gimenez’s agent has recently played down transfer rumors, but the striker is still waiting for his first goal of the Serie A season since his return. Offensively, Milan can still count on strong individual players. Christian Pulisic delivers regularly when he is fit, and Rafael Leão already has six league goals to his name, while the defense, with players such as Tomori, Gabbia, and Pavlović, is looking increasingly well-rehearsed. If Milan can maintain this compact, resilient profile and manage the rotation in the squad cleanly despite suspensions and injuries, the Rossoneri remain a realistic Scudetto contender who can put pressure on Inter at the top, even if the low margin for error and load management will be decisive tests in the coming two months.
At AC Milan, there are many indications that they will play a 3-4-2-1 formation, with a back three protecting goalkeeper Mike Maignan. De Winter, Fikayo Tomori, and Pavlović are expected to form the central defensive line and play a key role in both building up play and protecting against Torino’s counterattacks. In central midfield, Ricci and Adrien Rabiot are likely to start, partly because Youssouf Fofana is out with a muscle problem. They will be responsible for distributing the ball and closing down the spaces in front of the defense. Alexis Saelemaekers and Pervis Estupiñán are expected to provide width and depth on the wings as wing-backs, with plenty of runs along the touchlines. In the attacking roles behind them, Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão are expected to play in the attacking midfield and second striker positions respectively, operating behind Christopher Nkunku, who will lead the line in the center, while Santiago Gimenez remains sidelined with an ankle problem. On match day, Stefano Pioli will coach the team, while Massimiliano Allegri will not be allowed to intervene from the sidelines due to his suspension from the Lazio game.
Turin – AC Milan Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches, the record between Torino and AC Milan is even, with both teams winning two games and one draw. Torino won the last meeting in February 2025 2-1 at home, while the previous game at San Siro in August 2024 ended 2-2. The Granata’s home advantage is striking, as they won their last two league games against Milan at the Stadio Olimpico 3-1 in 2024 and 2-1 in February 2025, which speaks for their confident performance in their own stadium. Most of these games have been high-scoring, with more than 2.5 goals scored in four of the five encounters, both teams scoring in four games, and Milan scoring at least one goal in all five games, the only exception to this pattern being the Rossoneri’s 1-0 win in 2023. Another trend can be seen in the second halves, with AC Milan scoring after the break in all five games, while Turin has always conceded goals in this phase. At the same time, Turin often starts strongly, scoring in the first half in four of the five games, but then slips defensively towards the end. Overall, this history suggests an open game with chances at both ends, in which Torino remain dangerous at home, but Milan are particularly strong in front of goal after the break and late defensive lapses could make the difference.
