The return of the Wear Tyne Derby to the Premier League gives Sunday at the Stadium of Light a special atmosphere, as Sunderland welcomes Newcastle on matchday 16. After eight years away from the top flight, Régis Le Bris’s team is in ninth place, level on points with Brighton and Liverpool and one point ahead of Eddie Howe’s Newcastle in twelfth. The table is tightly packed, and Howe has already described this match as the most intense derby. In January 2024, Newcastle finally found derby relief in the FA Cup at the same venue, winning 3-0 after nine league derbies without a win. Since then, Sunderland has exceeded expectations, picking up points against Liverpool, among others, before a sobering 3-0 defeat at Manchester City showed the limits. Newcastle travel with the stronger recent home form, but continue to invite problems with late goals conceded. A win for either side could shift this tight mid-table race towards Europe. Le Bris currently has no injury concerns and has a strong backup in goalkeeper Robin Roefs, but he will have to reshuffle his lineup after Luke O’Nien’s red card in Manchester and is facing the loss of Traoré, Masuaku, and Sadiki in the coming weeks due to the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations. On the other side, Eddie Howe is still missing defenders Sven Botman and Kieran Trippier, and he will also have to manage the workload after the game in Leverkusen.
- Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland
- Date and time: 14.12.2025, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (matchday 16)
However, Sunderland at 3.3 and similarly short odds on a draw suggest that the real value lies in the goals market. With O’Nien suspended and Sunderland looking vulnerable, Newcastle’s attack should score at least one goal, while Howe’s team continues to concede late goals, as Leverkusen showed, which is why the market Both teams to score: Yes and Over 1.5 goals in the second half are a good fit for this derby, which many experts consider to be a frantic affair.
Sunderland Form & Record Check
Ninth in the Premier League, Sunderland go into matchday 16 with 23 points, level on points with Brighton and Liverpool. This is a remarkable haul for a newly promoted team and shows that Régis Le Bris has adjusted the team to Premier League intensity faster than many expected. The overall trend is positive, even if recent weeks have looked more like consolidation than another leap forward. Their current form in the league is mixed, with one win, two draws, and two defeats in their last five games. The 3-0 defeat at Manchester City highlighted the gap to the top and was made worse by O’Neill’s late red card, while the 1-1 draw at Liverpool and the 2-2 draw at home to Arsenal showed that Sunderland can compete with the top teams. The 3-2 home win against Bournemouth underlined their attacking potential, but also exposed defensive frailties, while the 1-0 defeat at Fulham felt like a missed opportunity against a mid-table opponent. Sunderland have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five league games and have conceded goals after halftime in four of those games, a pattern that should give Le Bris pause for thought. Statistically, more than 1.5 goals were scored in 80% of these five games, and Sunderland conceded in each of these matches, often in the second half. The games become more open the longer they go on, which suits their approach of keeping up offensively, but leaves Roefs unprotected at times. His performances so far have already earned him external recognition as one of the best value summer signings in the Premier League. Off the pitch, Sunderland’s situation is marked by potential disruptions to the squad, with six players, including Traoré, Masuaku, Sadiki, Reinildo, and Talbi, are available for the Africa Cup of Nations, and Manchester United are reportedly in talks over Sadiki, while Le Bris is keen to bring Guendouzi back into the team, decisions in January could determine whether this encouraging start leads to a sustained push.
Le Bris is likely to stick with Sunderland’s usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Roefs expected to start in goal after his strong start. Our predicted back four consists of Hume, Geertruida, Ballard, and Alderete, with Xhaka and Le Fée providing cover in front of them as a double six. In the attacking trio, Adingra, Diarra, and Talbi could start behind Brobbey. As no injuries have been reported, this is a possible but not yet confirmed lineup.
Newcastle Form & Record Check
Newcastle are in decent form across all competitions, but without maintaining complete control over their games. In the Premier League, a 4-1 win at Everton was followed by a 2-2 draw with Tottenham and a 2-1 win over Burnley at St James’ Park. In Europe, a 2-1 defeat in Marseille and a 2-2 draw in Leverkusen kept them in the race for the Champions League, although hopes of a top-eight finish have been somewhat dampened. Eddie Howe’s team is reliably delivering on offense, with Newcastle scoring in each of these recent outings and all games producing more than one goal, which is why their games rarely seem dull. Gordon’s penalty against Burnley and his calm finish in Leverkusen, Guimarães’ direct corner conversion, the emergence of Miley and Woltemade, and Barnes’ Player of the Month nomination point to a diverse, if occasionally set-piece-heavy, attacking threat. More problematic is what happens without the ball. Newcastle have conceded in each of these five games and, crucially, continue to concede late goals. They have already conceded nine goals in the final ten minutes this season and squandered 11 league points from leads, with Romero’s late header for Tottenham, Burnley’s penalty in stoppage time and Grimaldo’s 88th-minute equalizer for Leverkusen, reinforcing doubts about their concentration and structure. This mixture of attacking intent and defensive carelessness explains their position in the table. Newcastle are in 12th place with 22 points, level on points with Tottenham and just ahead of Bournemouth, while Sunderland are three places and one point ahead after their strong return to the top flight. With Botman and Trippier still sidelined and no AFCON absences, Howe’s task is to tighten up the defense without dampening the growing attacking rhythm.
In our predicted lineup, Eddie Howe sticks with his familiar 4-3-3, with Ramsdale expected to start in goal in front of a back four of Livramento, Thiaw, Schär, and Burn. Tonali, Guimarães, and Joelinton form a robust midfield trio, with Gordon and Barnes flanking Woltemade in attack, an offense designed to press aggressively and exploit the space behind Sunderland’s fullbacks. Botman remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and Trippier is still struggling with a thigh problem, so our prediction is that Thiaw and Livramento will provide defensive stability and ball progression. With no players called up for the Africa Cup of Nations, Howe could turn to Wissa, Elanga, or Ramsey from the bench if he needs more pace. Overall, this starting lineup should clearly be considered provisional and not confirmed.
Sunderland – Newcastle Head-to-Head & Statistics
A look at the last five meetings between Sunderland and Newcastle, spanning from 2014 to 2024, shows Sunderland with the better record, with three wins, one draw, and one defeat. Four of those games took place in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 Premier League seasons, after which the rivalry lay dormant until the 2024 FA Cup tie, when Newcastle won 3-0 away at the Stadium of Light. Between 2014 and 2015, Sunderland recorded a series of three consecutive derby wins, all without conceding a goal, including back-to-back home wins of 1-0 and 3-0. For Newcastle, this meant three defeats in a row before a 1-1 draw in 2016. During this phase, Sunderland scored in four consecutive games and Newcastle conceded goals in each of those games. The goal tally across these five encounters is remarkably close, with each game ending with three goals or fewer and all five first halves remaining at one goal or fewer. The derby therefore tended to start cautiously rather than escalating immediately, suggesting that both teams approach the game with a fair amount of caution, especially before the break. The outlier in this series is the 2024 FA Cup match, in which Newcastle won 3-0 away and knocked Sunderland out of the competition. This result gave Newcastle their only clean sheet in these five games and their only win. The longer-term record still favors Sunderland, but the most recent evidence suggests the opposite, at least for now.
