A start to the year at the Stadium of Light, a promoted team that is still unbeaten at home, and title contenders Manchester City with six league wins in a row – this combination promises to be exciting. Sunderland, coached by Régis Le Bris, are in 7th place with 28 points, just behind Manchester United in the race for European places, while Pep Guardiola’s team are second with 40 points, five points behind leaders Arsenal and just ahead of Aston Villa. City come into the game on the back of an eight-game unbeaten run and a fresh 3-0 win at the Etihad, where they clearly dominated Sunderland earlier this month. Nevertheless, they face an opponent that remains unbeaten in the Premier League at the Stadium of Light and most recently drew 1-1 with Leeds. Sunderland’s season has far exceeded expectations, but injuries and absences due to the Africa Cup of Nations stand in stark contrast to City’s squad depth.
- Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland
- Date and time: January 1, 2026, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 19)
We are betting that Guardiola’s team, currently on an eight-game winning streak, will apply early pressure, lead at halftime, and that the total number of goals will be over 3.5. Sunderland’s impressive unbeaten home record will be weakened by AFCON-related absences on the wings, increasing the likelihood of a clean sheet for City, even though the market still believes the home team will score.
Sunderland Form & Record Check
Sunderland reaches the halfway point of its first season back in the Premier League in seventh place with 28 points, just two points behind Manchester United and level on points with Everton, already exceeding most preseason expectations. However, their recent record of just two wins from their last nine league games shows a team that regularly keeps up with the competition but still needs to learn how to convert their dominance into wins more consistently. Sunderland remain unbeaten at the Stadium of Light in the league, with their recent home games against Newcastle and Leeds both close encounters, ending in a 1-0 derby win and a 1-1 draw respectively. Four of their last five league games have ended with a maximum of two goals, an indication of a compact, sometimes deliberately cautious style of play that Régis Le Bris is currently opting for in favor of stability. The 1-0 win against Newcastle underlined resilience and good game management, while the 0-0 draw in Brighton highlighted defensive organization but also a certain reluctance to push forward. The 1-1 draw at home against Leeds felt more like a missed opportunity, with Sunderland letting up after Simon Adingra’s opener and failing to find a second wind after Dominic Calvert-Lewin equalized. The 3-0 defeat at Manchester City earlier this month was the only game in this phase in which the gap to the very top became really apparent and, at the same time, the only one of the recent games in which Sunderland conceded more than two goals. Before and after that, the draws at Liverpool and against Leeds point to a solid basic level, even if the next step against top teams is still pending. Statistically, four of Sunderland’s last five league games have ended with under 2.5 goals, and in 80% of that run, both halves have seen under 1.5 goals, confirming the picture of a controlled but often cautious approach. Granit Xhaka’s influence in the center and Robin Roefs’ six clean sheets have supported this overachievement, but the current AFCON call-ups, Luke O’Nien’s suspension, and impending suspensions in the squad could seriously test this balance in the coming weeks.
Sunderland are expected to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1, with Roefs, who has already kept six clean sheets in the league, in goal behind a back four of Hume, Mukiele, Alderete, and Cirkin. In front of them, Geertruida and Xhaka should secure the central midfield, with Adingra and Rigg on the wings and Le Fée behind Brobbey in attack, a balanced lineup overall that should protect their unbeaten home record against City. Important absences characterize this predicted starting eleven, with Reinildo, Masuaku, Diarra, Sadiki, Talbi, and Traoré are away at the Africa Cup of Nations, Luke O’Nien remains suspended, and Alese is also out according to the latest team news. Hume and Cirkin are therefore expected to retain their roles as fullbacks, although Le Bris still has alternatives in Neil or Ba, which is why this formation should be seen as a probable lineup rather than confirmed information.
Man City Form & Record Check
Manchester City travels to Sunderland in impressive league form, sitting second with 40 points and a goal difference of 26, five points behind Arsenal and one ahead of Aston Villa. For a team that measures seasons in titles, this gap is still slightly behind their own expectations, but six league wins in a row and eight wins in all competitions suggest that the rebuilding process after the summer and Guardiola’s reset in Florida are taking effect. The 2-1 away win at Real Madrid in the Champions League was the clearest sign of their newfound authority, a result that would have been unimaginable during their slump last winter. Since then, they have beaten Crystal Palace and West Ham 3-0 in the league and knocked Brentford out of the League Cup 2-0, three controlled performances without conceding a goal, more methodical than spectacular. The away game at Nottingham Forest was the only encounter in this phase in which some nervousness was evident, with Reijnders scoring early after the break, Omari Hutchinson equalizing, and City needing Cherkis’ goal in the 83rd minute to make it 2-1. The absence of a fully fit Rodri, who was only on the bench after his injury, may explain some of this unease. The numbers underscore the impression: City has won all of its last five games, winning both the first and second halves in 80% of that series and scoring in all games, always with more than 1.5 goals. Haaland’s 19 league goals and Foden’s seven support this firepower, while Cherki already has five and is increasingly becoming a fixture between the lines. This phase is all the more remarkable when you consider the personnel situation: Rodri is only just returning, Doku and Bobb are unavailable, Kovacic is out long term, and Marmoush and Aït-Nouri are at the Africa Cup of Nations. This puts a lot of responsibility on Bernardo Silva and Reijnders, and the busy schedule in January will be the next real test of consistency at this pace.
Manchester City are expected to stick with a 4-3-2-1 formation, with Donnarumma in goal and a back four of Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, and O’Reilly, with Silva, González, and Reijnders in midfield. Cherki and Foden are expected to play as narrow playmakers behind Haaland, a structure that keeps Haaland central and allows Cherki and Foden to attack the half-spaces, while Silva links the different phases of play. In terms of personnel, there are several reasons to believe that this basic formation will be retained. Kovacic is still out with ankle and heel problems, Marmoush is away with his national team, and Phillips is unavailable on Champions League matchdays, which is why they are unlikely to feature in this predicted starting eleven. Doku and Bobb are still working on their return, while Stones and Aït Nouri are close to making a comeback. Rodri could once again be brought on cautiously from the bench, which would slightly alter the balance in midfield depending on how the game progresses.
Sunderland – Man City Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five Premier League matches between the two clubs, from 2015 to December 2025, Manchester City has won all five games, with no draws and no wins for Sunderland. The overall goal difference of 12:2 in City’s favor underscores this clear imbalance, as even in games with relatively close final scores, Sunderland were unable to convert their performances into points. City’s winning margins range from clear dominance to controlled victories, with a 4-1 win in 2015 and a 3-0 win in December 2025, plus three wins by just one goal. In four of the five encounters, at least two goals were scored in total, and only the 4-1 win in 2015 exceeded the four-goal mark. A recurring problem for Sunderland is the timing of the goals they concede. In these five games, they have scored only twice, with City leading at halftime in all five matches. Sunderland failed to score before the break and conceded at least one goal in each first half. Interestingly, three of the last five second halves ended in a draw, so the decisive damage was mostly done before the break. The venue has done little to change this balance of power, with Sunderland losing 1-0 in 2016 and 2-0 in 2017 at the Stadium of Light, failing to score in both home games. Away at City, they scored at least once in the 2-1 defeat in 2016, but still lost all three games, including a clear 4-1 defeat in 2015. The trends therefore point to a match in which City will take control early on and then manage the game, while Sunderland may stabilize after the break, but the psychological advantage clearly lies with the visitors after five consecutive City wins and without a single point for Sunderland.
