Promoted Sunderland is shaking up the Premier League as a surprise contender for the upper half of the table, while Leeds remains in the relegation battle despite a few bright spots. On Sunday, Régis Le Bris welcomes his team to the Stadium of Light for the 18th matchday. They are seventh with 27 points after a 0-0 draw in Brighton, while Daniel Farke’s team is in 16th place with 19 points. The 4-1 win over Crystal Palace has eased the pressure somewhat, but it is far from over. Leeds narrowly won the last meeting in the Championship 2-1, another Premier League game that bookmakers consider to be largely evenly matched. Sunderland has clearly exceeded expectations in the fight to stay up, but the upswing has flattened out and Le Bris now has to deal with six players missing due to the Africa Cup of Nations. Leeds will rely on a back three, strong set pieces, and Calvert-Lewin’s goal-scoring streak, but will be without Longstaff and James.
- Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland
- Date and time: December 28, 2025, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 18)
The predictions for this match tend towards goals and Leeds’ growing resilience, which fits in well with recent impressions. Leeds are coming off a 4-1 win over Crystal Palace, thriving in a back three with clear processes and great strength in set pieces, while Sunderland, currently in sixth place, appear depleted by AFCON call-ups and less reliable defensively.
Sunderland Form & Record Check
Sunderland go into this match in good Premier League form, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat from their last five league games. They are in seventh place with 27 points, just two points behind Liverpool and one ahead of Crystal Palace, clearly exceeding expectations for a promoted team before the season, even if the early season surge has cooled off somewhat. Recent performances have been mixed: the 3-2 home win against Bournemouth revealed plenty of attacking ideas, but also defensive sloppiness. The tough 1-1 draw at Liverpool was impressive, while the 3-0 defeat at Manchester City exposed the gap to the very top. The 1-0 derby win against Newcastle at the Stadium of Light looked more controlled than fluid, and the 0-0 draw at Brighton suggested that Le Bris’ three-striker approach remains somewhat blunt at times. The underlying statistics suggest a team balancing on a knife edge: over the season, Sunderland have scored 19 league goals from around 14.9 expected goals, meaning their conversion rate is slightly higher than their chance creation. Defensively, they remain compact, Robin Roefs is playing so well that he could feature in Jamie Carragher’s team of the season, and Granit Xhaka gives structure to the midfield, but the defeat to City showed that the defensive block cracks as soon as the pressing is overcome. A pattern has emerged in recent Premier League games: Sunderland rarely dominate their opponents early on, with none of their last five games decided at halftime, but they often find their rhythm as the game progresses and have already scored six goals after the 80th minute this season. Régis Le Bris must now maintain this level without Mandava, Masuaku, Diarra, Sadiki, Talbi, and Traoré during the AFCON, so the realistic goal is probably to keep the discussion about Europe alive while ensuring stability in the league.
Sunderland are expected to stick with their now familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Roefs continuing in goal after his strong first half of the season. In front of him, a back four of Mukiele, Ballard, Alderete, and Hume is likely to start, with Xhaka and Geertruida expected to form the double six, ahead of Adingra, Le Fée, and Rigg, who will support Brobbey as center forward. This is a predicted lineup, not a confirmed starting XI.
Six AFCON nominations, Mandava, Masuaku, Diarra, Sadiki, Talbi, and Traoré, have already been highlighted as a drain on Sunderland’s squad depth, so this predicted lineup relies heavily on familiar faces. The structure in possession is likely to revolve around Xhaka and Le Fée, while Adingra, who is available after missing out on the Ivory Coast squad, will be tasked with setting up Brobbey. Neil, Mundle, or Poveda may bring additional energy off the bench in the closing stages.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds come to the Stadium of Light with a slightly improved league record. They are in 16th place with 19 points, six points above the relegation zone, but only three behind Bournemouth and one ahead of Nottingham Forest, so there is little room for error. Two wins and two draws from their last four Premier League games have noticeably lightened the mood, without completely removing the sense of danger. This was based on significantly better performances in the league: a 3-1 win over Chelsea showed sharper pressing and calmer possession. The 3-3 draw with Liverpool underlined their attacking threat, but exposed defensive weaknesses. A 1-1 draw at Brentford was tough and rather disappointing, before the 4-1 win against Crystal Palace, in which all goals came from set pieces, fully exploited the team’s height advantage. The previous 3-2 defeat at Manchester City was encouraging despite the result, albeit still raw in some areas. Overall, Leeds are developing into one of the league’s most unpredictable teams, with only one defeat in their last five games. In each of these Premier League games, both teams scored and the games were well above the usual goal lines. Leeds have both scored and conceded goals in every second half without losing those periods, indicating growing resilience but also a tendency to open up games when legs get tired. Set pieces are clearly the backbone of this minor resurgence: Leeds have already scored 12 goals from set pieces, jointly the most in the league and more than Arsenal, and they lead the league in chance quality from throw-ins in the attacking third with around 2.1 expected goals. This fits with a physically larger team and a 5-3-2 formation in which Ampadu and Stach dominate in the center, while Calvert-Lewin is currently on a five-game Premier League scoring streak. As a promoted team with a lean summer transfer window, it is broadly in line with expectations to be in 16th place with this recent upward trend, although some around Elland Road believe that staying up could have been achieved more comfortably. A current supercomputer model continues to predict that Leeds will stay up, but also emphasizes how close the margins remain. The absence of Longstaff and James at Sunderland could also highlight how much Farkes’ system relies on running power.
Leeds are expected to stick with Daniel Farke’s now familiar 3-5-2 formation, with our predicted lineup seeing Perri behind a back three of Rodon, Bijol, and Struijk. Bogle and Gudmundsson will provide width on the flanks, Ampadu will play the deepest role in midfield, while Stach and Aaronson can focus on second balls and attacking set pieces, which remain one of Leeds’ most important weapons. Up front, Calvert-Lewin and Okafor are likely to continue as the attacking duo, mainly due to Calvert-Lewin’s current scoring form. Longstaff and James are out, which limits the options in midfield and on the wings. Nmecha is working his way back from a thigh injury and, despite speculation about a return, remains on the fringes of the squad in this prediction, leaving Harrison, Gnonto, and Piroe as the most likely options off the bench.
Sunderland – Leeds Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches, the record between Sunderland and Leeds is completely even. Both teams have recorded one win and three draws, with a total of five goals scored per side. The most recent meeting dates back to February 2025, when Leeds won 2-1 at home in the Championship, giving them a slight edge in the latest Premier League clash. The games have been consistently close, with none of the five matches decided by more than one goal and four ending with less than 3.5 total goals. Sunderland failed to score only once during this period, Leeds also failed to score only once, which suggests largely balanced encounters in which neither team dominated at both ends for long periods. The first halves were particularly defensive: four of the last five matches were tied at halftime, with at most one goal scored in most of these periods. Sunderland never trailed at halftime in this series, Leeds never led, so the differences usually only emerged after the break and were then only narrow. No clear psychological advantage can therefore be deduced from this sample of five games: Sunderland secured a narrow victory in 2023, Leeds responded with a home win in the most recent encounter, and the remaining three games ended in draws. For Le Bris and Farke, the most important message is likely to be a certain degree of caution, as recent history suggests another close and controlled contest rather than a completely open game with lots of goals.
