VfB Stuttgart vs. FC St. Pauli
St. Pauli is enjoying the best start to a season in its history and travels with seven points from fourth place in the table to crisis-stricken VfB Stuttgart, which ranks twelfth with only three points after three match days. The visitors from Hamburg are coming off a spectacular 2-1 comeback win against Augsburg, with Danel Sinani scoring the decisive goal in the 77th minute to keep his team unbeaten. Stuttgart, on the other hand, must cope with a bitter 1-3 derby defeat against Freiburg, where the team conceded three goals in the closing stages despite Demirović’s lead, and even the substitutions of new signings Bouanani and El Khannouss failed to provide any impetus. The situation is particularly interesting given the Swabians’ narrow 1-0 win in Hamburg in May, because while VfB dominates the head-to-head record with three wins and only one defeat, Alexander Blessin’s team is clearly in better form at the moment, even though the betting market surprisingly sees Stuttgart as the clear favorite.
- Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart
- Date and time: September 19, 2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 4)
Stuttgart Form & Record Check
VfB Stuttgart’s current form is cause for concern ahead of their home game. After three Bundesliga games, the Swabians are in 12th place with only three points, level on points with SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg, which is by no means what was expected of a team that performed so well internationally last season. The recent 1-3 defeat in the derby was particularly bitter, with the team completely collapsing between the 81st and 92nd minutes despite Demirović’s lead and Leweling’s assist. A striking pattern has emerged in the last five games: Stuttgart scores reliably, but concedes goals just as regularly. The offense is basically working, but the defense lacks the stability of last season. Two defeats in a row and only one win from the first three league games highlight the discrepancy between ambition and reality, while the integration of new signings Bouanani and El Khannouss seems to be taking time and Undav’s absence is weakening the offense.
VfB are expected to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, even though Sebastian Hoeneß has considerable personnel worries. With Undav still injured and several players ineligible to play, the coach will have to get creative. In attack, Demirović could once again be given the nod as the number nine after scoring against Freiburg last time out. Particularly explosive: numerous players such as Al-Dakhil, Stergiou and Silas are unavailable due to Europa League regulations. This opens up the chance for players such as Bouanani and El Khannouss to prove themselves from the start. In defense, Jeltsch could be given a chance to prove himself if Hoeneß decides to rotate.
St. Pauli form & record check
St. Pauli is currently enjoying the best start to a season in the club’s history and is tied for fourth place in the table with 1. FC Köln on seven points, just one point behind Eintracht Frankfurt. The recent 2-1 win against Augsburg underlined the mental strength of Alexander Blessin’s team, as Hountondji shortly before half-time and Sinani in the 77th minute turned the game around after Rieder had given Augsburg an early lead. Interestingly, Blessin had to react at half-time and substitute both goalscorer Hountondji and Pyrka, who had been booked. Their Bundesliga form, with two wins and a draw, reflects an impressive balance, with the highest-scoring game being the 3-3 opener against Dortmund, followed by a confident 2-1 win in the city derby at Hamburger SV. It is striking that St. Pauli have had goalless first halves in four of their last five games, but have then regularly struck after the break. Blessin will still be without four players: Nemeth is out with muscle problems, Mets is not expected back until the end of September, while both Jones and Ceesay are missing through injury in attack, although this has not had a negative impact on the team’s offensive performance so far.
After a successful start to the season with seven points from three games, coach Alexander Blessin is unlikely to make many changes to his tried-and-tested 3-4-1-2 formation. However, the squad is a little thinner: Nemeth is out with muscle problems, and Mets is not yet fit enough to play. In the back three, Wahl could line up as defensive leader between Smith and Dzwigala. Pyrka and Oppie are likely to provide pace on the wings, while Sands and Fujita are expected to occupy the central midfield. Sinani as the playmaker behind the striking duo of Hountondji and Pereira Lage completes this prediction.
H2H Stuttgart – St. Pauli Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent record between Stuttgart and St. Pauli shows an interesting pattern. In the last five encounters, VfB won three times, Hamburg once, and there was one draw. The most recent match in May 2025 is still fresh in the memory: Stuttgart won 1-0 at the Millerntor after St. Pauli had triumphed by the same score at the MHPArena in December 2024. The lack of goals in these matches is striking, as all five games ended with a maximum of two goals, four of them with only a one-goal difference. The first halves were regularly uneventful, with no goals scored at half-time in any of the five encounters. Stuttgart has always scored in the second half in the last three meetings and has not conceded a goal after the break, while St. Pauli has conceded at least one goal in each of the last three games. These patterns could prove interesting for the upcoming match.
While the betting markets favor Stuttgart as the clear favorite at odds of 1.7, our analysis suggests that St. Pauli, with its dream start, is significantly undervalued. The most important betting tip, “Both teams to score,” is based on Stuttgart’s consistent goal production and St. Pauli’s offensive power around Hountondji, coupled with the shaky defensive lines of both teams. The “Double Chance X2” for St. Pauli is supported by the Kiezkickers’ best start to a season in history and Stuttgart’s weak run of just one win in five games. Interestingly, even a direct away win at 4.3 seems a realistic option, considering that Stuttgart are missing nine players, including top scorer Undav and regular goalkeeper Bredlow. The high odds of 1.8 for “Over 2.5 Goals” do not reflect the fact that 80% of Stuttgart’s recent games have exceeded this mark, while St. Pauli also rarely produces boring goalless draws. The market appears to be underestimating St. Pauli’s momentum and overestimating Stuttgart’s current strength without key players.
