Key Facts
- Stuttgart is unbeaten in its last five matches against Dortmund (4 wins, 1 draw); BVB has never kept a clean sheet in this run.
- Stuttgart’s offense has been bolstered: Deniz Undav scored twice in his last match; Jamie Leweling’s return to training gives Coach Hoeneß more options.
- Dortmund travels with key absences (Emre Can, Felix Nmecha, Filippo Mane), which weakens Kovacs’ balance in central midfield.
- League standings: Stuttgart (3rd) is just three points ahead of Leipzig and is simultaneously chasing Dortmund (2nd) — points are essential for both teams.
- High probability of many goals: Dortmund has surpassed the 2.5-goal mark in four of its last five games; Stuttgart has scored and conceded in about 80% of its recent matches.
- Betting market favorite: Over 3.5 at 2.16 has statistical backing given both teams’ offensive strengths and their opponents’ defensive weaknesses (BVB).“,“ Dortmund recently showed mental strength (a 3-2 comeback win after trailing 0-2 against Hamburg), but is vulnerable in tight, fast-paced games and can be stretched apart at high speed.
Sebastian Hoeneß kicks off his third year as head coach with a sold-out MHPArena and a matchup that has recently suited Stuttgart unusually well. The hosts welcome Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, fresh off a 5-2 league win in Augsburg, and the last meeting in November ended 3-3, following another chaotic evening between two teams that rarely make this matchup a quiet affair. The situation is clear, though there’s no need for panic: Stuttgart sits in third place, just three points ahead of Leipzig, and is still chasing Dortmund, which is in second and has been on a strong run in the league under Niko Kovac. Stuttgart is unbeaten in its last three Bundesliga matches, while Dortmund has won its last three in the league.
- Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart
- Date and time: April 4, 2026, 6:30 PM
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 28)
The bookmakers see Stuttgart as slight favorites, and the logic behind a home win is certainly sound: Dortmund traditionally struggles against VfB, Deniz Undav is in strong form, Jamie Leweling has returned to training, and the visitors will be without Emre Can and Felix Nmecha.
On the other hand, Dortmund continues to score with remarkable consistency, which keeps both a draw and a BVB win in the running and also strongly suggests over 3.5 goals.
Stuttgart Form & Record Check
Stuttgart went into the break with one of the most dominant offensive performances of the spring, winning 5-2 in Augsburg in a game that showcased both the depth of the squad and the team’s fluidity on the ball. Deniz Undav scored twice, Tiago Tomás and Nikolas Nartey also contributed goals, and Ermedin Demirovic came off the bench and scored immediately after entering the game. This is important because Hoeneß now has several credible options for how to line up his offense. This result also sharpened the overall picture: Stuttgart is unbeaten in the league in three games, with wins against Leipzig and a draw in Mainz prior to the Augsburg match, but the two Europa League losses to Porto showed that the team can still lose control in drawn-out matches. Only Dan-Axel Zagadou remains sidelined, and the lead over Leipzig is narrow enough to keep expectations high.
At VfB Stuttgart, Sebastian Hoeneß is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation as usual, though this is, of course, just a prediction. Accordingly, Alexander Nübel would be in goal, with Lorenz Assignon, Finn Jeltsch, Jeff Chabot, and Maximilian Mittelstädt in front of him. Angelo Stiller and Atakan Karazor would direct play from the center, while Bilal El Khannouss operates between the lines. Further up front, Jamie Leweling and Chris Führich are set to start as wingers, with Deniz Undav likely to lead the line. With Dan-Axel Zagadou still out, the back line should remain as expected, and Ermedin Demirovic could start on the bench following his international duty.
Dortmund Form & Record Check
Dortmund went into the break with a 3-2 win over Hamburg, and their comeback revealed a lot about this team. They made enough mistakes to trail by two goals at halftime, but played with much greater focus after the break, with Ramy Bensebaini scoring twice from the penalty spot and Serhou Guirassy netting the decisive goal. Impressive in their response, less convincing in their control. Their recent Bundesliga run has been impressive, with wins against 1. FC Köln, Augsburg, and Hamburg; however, the losses to Bayern and Atalanta serve as a reminder that Dortmund can be stretched apart when the pace picks up. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have scored in every game, but they have rarely truly controlled matches to see them through to the end.
With Emre Can, Felix Nmecha, and Filippo Mane out, Kovac’s midfield balance looks somewhat vulnerable.
This is, of course, just a prediction, but there are many indications that Borussia Dortmund under Niko Kovac will once again line up in a 3-5-2 formation. Gregor Kobel – 1 is likely to start in goal, with Luca Reggiani – 49, Waldemar Anton – 3, and Nico Schlotterbeck – 4 in front of him, and Julian Ryerson – 26 and Daniel Svensson – 24 on the wings. Nico Schlotterbeck – 4 is particularly important for building play from the back. Further up the field, Marcel Sabitzer – 20 is expected to stabilize the midfield alongside Jobe Bellingham – 7, while Julian Brandt – 10 acts as the central link behind Karim Adeyemi – 27 and Serhou Guirassy – 9. Emre Can, Felix Nmecha, and Filippo Mane are all unavailable, which noticeably thins out the squad depth, particularly in defense and central midfield.
Stuttgart – Dortmund Head-to-Head & Statistics
The head-to-head record from recent matches is clear: Stuttgart is unbeaten in five encounters, having won four of them, and Dortmund simply hasn’t been able to find a way past this opponent for some time now. The last meeting in November 2025 ended 3-3, but even that result is part of a streak in which Stuttgart has repeatedly caused new problems for BVB. Prior to that draw, Stuttgart won 2-1 in 2025, then 5-1 and 1-0 in 2024, as well as 2-0 in the 2023 Cup. What stands out: Stuttgart has scored in all five matches, and each time in the second half as well. Of course, that’s no guarantee of another perfect home game, but it’s a clear sign that this rivalry has clearly belonged to Stuttgart lately.
