Stuttgart returns from Basel with mixed feelings, where the Swabians lost 2-0 in the Europa League despite having more chances. Particularly bitter: Demirović’s missed penalty and Basel keeper Hitz’s brilliant saves. Tomorrow, Sunday, VfB welcomes 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to the MHPArena, and the table situation on the sixth matchday could hardly be clearer: 6th place against 17th place. Stuttgart has shown two sides this season, solid in the league with nine points, but still searching for the right rhythm internationally.
Heidenheim is already fighting for important points in the relegation battle. With only three points after five games, Frank Schmidt is under pressure, even though his team recently secured an important 2-1 win against Augsburg. “Our goal is to keep a clean sheet,” Schmidt said at the press conference, making clear his team’s defensive approach. The last meeting in April produced a surprise, with Heidenheim winning 1-0 in Stuttgart. Interestingly, the matches between the two teams are usually high-scoring, even though the first half often starts quietly. The bookmakers see Stuttgart as the clear favorites this time, but Heidenheim has already proven that they can score points at the MHPArena.
- Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart
- Date and time: October 5, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 6)
In four of the last five games, there was a maximum of one goal at half-time. Heidenheim has never led at half-time this season, and with Frank Schmidt’s public announcement that he wants to “play to nil,” the first half hour is likely to be approached with extreme caution. In addition, Demirović played 90 minutes in Basel on Thursday and Heidenheim’s top scorer Pieringer is out with an injury.
The second tip against “Both teams to score: Yes” seems quite attractive at odds of 2.1 when you consider Heidenheim’s offense. Four games without scoring speak for themselves. With Pieringer and Honsak out, the two most direct offensive forces are also missing, while Stuttgart has been much more stable at home recently and Nübel is in impressive form. The riskiest tip for a draw may sound tempting at 4.8, but it is based on the assumption that Stuttgart’s European Cup commitments and the absence of Undav could lead to a tired offensive performance. It is interesting to note that the betting markets see Stuttgart as the clear favorites at 1.4, but our analysis identifies scenarios for a closer result, especially considering that Heidenheim will be playing defensively in this constellation.
Stuttgart Form & Record Check
VfB Stuttgart is currently going through a phase of extremes. While the team has stabilized in the Bundesliga after a difficult start, it suffered its first setback in Europe on Wednesday in Basel. With nine points from five league games and sixth place in the table, Stuttgart is on course, even if its form remains inconsistent.
In Basel, it became clear that the Swabians need to improve their finishing. Ermedin Demirović missed a penalty, and several big chances went unused. The 2-0 defeat to FC Basel was flattering for the hosts, who had an outstanding goalkeeper in Marwin Hitz. Angelo Stiller made an early mistake that led to the 1-0, but the team fought its way back into the game.
After their 2-1 win in Cologne a week ago, Stuttgart once again showed their comeback qualities. The record of three wins from five Bundesliga games is in line with expectations, although the two defeats in Freiburg and against Basel show that there is still room for improvement away from home. VfB continue to be plagued by injuries. Deniz Undav is out with a knee injury, while several players are currently unavailable due to Europa League eligibility.
The offense led by Demirović and Jamie Leweling is basically working, as the statistics show: Stuttgart has scored in four of its last five games. Defensively, Alexander Nübel is solid, even if the recent defeat hurts. With only one point behind Eintracht Frankfurt, everything is still open in the top third of the table.
Sebastian Hoeneß is likely to field his VfB team in the usual 4-2-3-1 formation. The absence of Deniz Undav weighs heavily, which is why Ermedin Demirović is expected to be the lone striker. After missing a penalty in Basel, the Bosnian will be eager to make amends.
In defense, Luca Jaquez, who was recently called up to the Swiss national team for the first time, could form the central defense alongside Ramon Hendriks. Maximilian Mittelstädt is likely to play on the left and Lorenz Assignon on the right.
Chris Führich, Jamie Leweling, and possibly Badredine Bouanani are expected to play in attacking midfield. Angelo Stiller and Atakan Karazor would form the central double six, with Stiller certainly looking to bounce back after his costly mistake in Basel. Alexander Nübel will be between the posts.
Heidenheim form & record check
1. FC Heidenheim’s current form is worrying. With just one win from five league games, the newly promoted side are in 17th place with three points and are in the midst of a relegation battle. Four defeats in a row speak for themselves.
The only ray of hope came last week in the 2-1 win against Augsburg. Kaufmann and Conteh turned the game around in the second half after the team was trailing 0-0 at halftime. It was an important breakthrough after four consecutive defeats against Wolfsburg, Leipzig, Dortmund, and Hamburg.
Heidenheim’s defensive vulnerability is particularly striking. In all five games this season, the team has conceded at least one goal, often several. The defeat against Leipzig ended 0-2, against Dortmund it was also goalless, while against Hamburg and Wolfsburg they lost narrowly 1-2 and 1-3 respectively.
Coach Frank Schmidt is already under considerable pressure to succeed. With only a three-point lead over Augsburg, who are lurking behind with the same number of points, the situation is precarious. Statistics show that Heidenheim has never led at halftime during this difficult phase, which indicates teething problems. The personnel situation is further strained by several absences. Pieringer, Honsak, and Paçarada are out with injuries, which takes away important options for Schmidt. The battle to avoid relegation will be much tougher for the Ostalb kickers than in the previous season.
After four defeats so far, Frank Schmidt is likely to rely on the tried-and-tested 4-3-3 formation that was already used against HSV. Ramaj will be between the posts, while the back four could consist of Traoré, Mainka, Gimber, and Föhrenbach.
The midfield is likely to feature the trio of Kerber, Dorsch, and Schöppner. Conteh, Kaufmann, and Ibrahimović will probably form the attack. The absence of Pieringer, who is one of the most valuable players in the squad with a market value of €5.5 million, is particularly bitter, but he is missing due to an ankle injury.
Honsak, normally an important alternative for the offense, is also unavailable due to muscle problems. Schmidt will therefore have to rely on his standard formation, although the bench does offer some interesting options such as Zivzivadze and Beck.
H2H Stuttgart – Heidenheim Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record between Stuttgart and Heidenheim is remarkably even. In the last five meetings, each team has recorded two wins and one draw.
After a 2-0 friendly win in March 2023, Heidenheim initially dominated with a 2-0 home win in November 2023. The spectacular 3-3 draw in March 2024 showed both teams at their most offensive. The two most recent Bundesliga matches reflected the home advantage. Stuttgart won 3-1 away in December 2024, while Heidenheim responded with a narrow 1-0 victory in April 2025. Stuttgart are likely to still be smarting from that defeat.
