Important Facts
- Stuttgart is fifth with 36 points, level on points with Leipzig and only four ahead of Leverkusen; Freiburg is seventh with 27, meaning that both teams can hardly afford to make any mistakes in the tight chase for the top spots.
- VfB is unbeaten in six league games and is coming off a 3-2 win against Young Boys; the upcoming Celtic playoff could require additional concentration.
- Stuttgart’s last five competitive games have all seen over 1.5 goals and often turn after the break; Freiburg have also conceded in four of their last five games, often late on.
- Without center back Zagadou and with Tomás and Jovanovic also out, Stuttgart’s defense/rotation looks vulnerable, while Freiburg are missing Lienhart as playmaker and Kyereh between the lines.
- There have been no draws and always over 3.5 goals in the last five head-to-head matches; yet the market is betting on Stuttgart (win odds 1.7) and “both teams to score.”
Europe is still within reach, and that’s exactly what makes this southwestern duel at the MHPArena so intense when Sebastian Hoeneß welcomes Julian Schuster’s SC Freiburg with VfB Stuttgart. Stuttgart has home advantage, but Freiburg has already shown that it can spoil the host’s evening – for both clubs, this game feels like much more than a routine league match. Stuttgart goes into the matchday in fifth place with 36 points and a goal difference of plus 10, level on points with RB Leipzig above them and four points ahead of Bayer Leverkusen below them. Freiburg are in seventh place with 27 points and a goal difference of minus 1, five points behind Leverkusen and level on points with Eintracht Frankfurt; their form is good, but not always convincing. Both teams are also coming off the back of Europa League action: Stuttgart defeated Young Boys 3-2, but their focus is primarily on the upcoming playoff clash with Celtic, which could demand their full concentration. Freiburg lost 1-0 in Lille but still reached the round of 16, with Eggestein’s red card there highlighting the narrow margins.
- Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart
- Date and time: February 1, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 20)
The bookmakers see Stuttgart as the home favorites: the odds for a win are 1.7, which seems playable because the Swabians are unbeaten in six league games and Undav has scored in consecutive Europa League matches. Freiburg are in the round of 16, but they concede goals regularly – and Lienhart’s absence increases the risk, while Grifo can cause problems for a Stuttgart defense without Zagadou.
Stuttgart Form & Record Check
Stuttgart go into matchday 20 in fifth place with 36 points, level on points with RB Leipzig and four points ahead of Leverkusen, which is why every flawless performance counts. Interestingly, their form in the league is solid, with three wins and two draws in their last five Bundesliga games, and the overall picture suggests that Hoeneß has rebuilt some consistency. With the Bundesliga still hoping for an additional Champions League ticket via Europe, fifth place suddenly takes on added significance. Results have fluctuated between efficiency and carelessness: 3-2 against Young Boys, 0-3 in Gladbach, 2-0 in Rome, 1-1 against Union, and 3-2 against Frankfurt. The away win in Gladbach served as a template, with Nübel’s early save from a penalty calming nerves and Stuttgart taking more control thereafter. The performance in Rome showed how harmless Stuttgart can be when they are pushed back, and even in victories they gave their opponents too much hope, as Undav admitted after the game against Young Boys. The last five games in all competitions have ended with more than 1.5 goals, and it is especially in the second half that things often fall apart. Stuttgart scored after the break in most of these games, but also conceded goals, so leads rarely looked secure. Zagadou, Tiago Tomás, and Jovanovic are out, while Hendriks is still being monitored due to a nose injury. Celtic are next up in the Europa League playoffs after finishing 11th in the league phase.
Hoeneß is expected to stick with Stuttgart’s usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Nübel behind a back four of Assignon, Jeltsch, Chabot, and Mittelstädt in this predicted starting lineup. Hendriks’ nose problem makes his availability uncertain, while Zagadou remains sidelined and Tomás and Jovanovic are also unavailable, so the defense and rotation on the wings appear to be set for now. In midfield, Karazor and Stiller should once again take charge of building up play and securing the transitions, while Undav acts as the main link between the lines. Leweling and Führich are likely to provide direct attacking and counter-pressing down the wings, with Demirovic planned as the center forward. Should Stuttgart look to play the game, El Khannouss is an option as a possible alternative for additional creativity.
Freiburg Form & Record Check
Freiburg are seventh in the Bundesliga with 27 points, level with Eintracht Frankfurt and five behind Bayer Leverkusen, so there is little room for error. Their recent league run has been respectable rather than convincing, with a tendency for tight opening periods. In four of their last five games, the first half has seen fewer than 1.5 goals, often ending in a draw. They lost 2-0 to RB Leipzig and looked a step too slow in transition, being punished when the press was broken. The 2-2 draw in Augsburg showed more resilience, but in the second half there were too many moments when the penalty area was left unprotected. Against Cologne, a 2-1 win after Rosenfelder’s early own goal, the reaction was sharp, but Freiburg still gave away enough space to keep the game nervous. The picture is similar in all competitions: controlled games that can tip at the slightest margin. They beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-0, then lost 1-0 at Lille, decided by a late penalty after Eggestein’s red card turned the evening around. Importantly, that defeat did not prevent them from reaching the Europa League round of 16, where Young Boys Bern await, but discipline and game management must improve. Schuster did not have the cleanest hand to work with. Lienhart’s abdominal injury takes away a calm organizer, and Kyereh’s ongoing fitness problems limit the options between the lines. Freiburg have conceded in four of their last five games, often after the break, which could be related to fatigue and changes. Dinkci’s loan to Heidenheim also highlights how little leeway there is for attackers who are out of form.
Julian Schuster is expected to line up Freiburg in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Atubolu likely to start in goal. The back four could consist of Treu, Ginter, Ogbus, and Günter, with Lienhart out with an abdominal injury, making Ogbus the logical partner for Ginter. Höfler and Eggestein should form the double six, combining defensive protection with playmaking. In attack, the forecast looks good, with Suzuki and Grifo behind Adamu, which would give Freiburg quality from set pieces and plenty of creativity down the left through Grifo. Adamu’s runs can stretch the defense, while Suzuki is expected to link up play between the lines. Kyereh is out for fitness reasons, so the attacking rotation options will likely come from Philipp, Höler, or Matanovic.
Stuttgart – Freiburg Head-to-head & statistics
Over the last five head-to-head encounters, Stuttgart leads with three wins to Freiburg’s two, without a single draw. The most recent match in September 2025 ended 3-1 in favor of Freiburg, repeating a pattern already seen in 2024. However, Stuttgart’s victories were clear-cut, including a 4-0 win in 2025 and a 5-0 win in 2023. The consistent pattern is goals. In all five games, more than 3.5 goals were scored, and in all five, more than 2.5, so this duel has been more open than cautious. Stuttgart has scored in all five games, a streak of five games with goals in this direct comparison, while Freiburg has not kept a clean sheet during this period. Another pattern is how quickly the games turn around. Stuttgart scored in the first half in all five encounters, and the first halves were often active, with more than 1.5 goals scored before the break in four of the five. Freiburg, on the other hand, conceded in all five games before the break, suggesting that early control was repeatedly their problem in this matchup. The venue has played a specific role recently. Freiburg’s two wins both came at home and both ended 3-1, in 2024 and September 2025, suggesting a reproducible plan when they host Stuttgart. Stuttgart’s response in 2025 was fierce at home with a 4-0 win, so it could be that the momentum swings here are more extreme than gradual.
