Key Facts
- St. Pauli (18th/12 points, level on points with Mainz) and HSV (14th/17, just one point behind Bremen and ahead of Augsburg) are under pressure to avoid relegation, so every point counts in the table.
- Despite only one win in five league games, the 2-3 defeat in Dortmund showed morale; Sands and Jones equalized before a late penalty turned everything around.
- At HSV, a run of one win, two draws, and two defeats has left them stuck in a rut; they had plenty of chances against Gladbach but lacked precision.
- St. Pauli are missing Nemeth, Metcalfe, Hountondji and Spari, which is affecting rotation and late-game details; at HSV, Poulsen and Baldé are injured, Soumahoro is doubtful.
- The derbies have produced 17 goals in five games (3.4 on average) and four times over 1.5; with odds of 2.5/2.9/3.2, “HSV won’t lose” plus “both teams to score” seems plausible.
Pressure instead of derby romance when the northern derby returns to the Millerntor Stadium on the 19th matchday of the Bundesliga. On Friday, January 23, 2026, Alexander Blessin’s FC St. Pauli will host Merlin Polzin’s Hamburger SV, with both teams currently looking down rather than up towards Europe. St. Pauli starts at the bottom of the table, in 18th place with 12 points and a goal difference of minus 15, level on points with Mainz directly above them. In the league, they have only won one of their last five games, but the 2-3 defeat in Dortmund showed that they can fight back – Sands and Jones scored. HSV are 14th in the table with 17 points, still just one point behind Bremen, and one point ahead of Augsburg. The last league meeting in August ended 2-0 to St. Pauli at the Volksparkstadion, a reminder of how quickly this fixture can swing. HSV are coming off a 0-0 draw with Gladbach, which according to reports felt more like two points dropped due to poor finishing. Off the pitch, they are linked with goalkeeper Tangvik, while St. Pauli are managing absences, including Nemeth and Hountondji.
- Venue: Millerntor Stadium, Hamburg
- Date and time: January 23, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 19)
The three-way market is fairly balanced: St. Pauli is at 2.5, HSV at 2.9, and a draw at 3.2. For me, the value lies in the option that HSV will not lose – especially after St. Pauli’s late setback in Dortmund and the loss of Nemeth. The goals also speak in favor of this: HSV creates plenty of chances, as Gladbach found out, and St. Pauli rarely keeps a clean sheet.
St. Pauli form & record check
St. Pauli’s form in the league continues to be characterized by close games rather than a complete collapse. One win from their last five games has left them in 18th place with 12 points, but the situation is not hopeless, as they are level on points with Mainz just above them. It is frustrating that most games remain within reach, but the team too often fails to convert good spells into goals at the decisive moment. The 3-2 defeat in Dortmund summed up their progress and problems quite well. Coming back from 2-0 down through Sands and Jones showed real character and improved aggression on second balls, but the late penalty conceded seemed avoidable. Before that, there was the 2-1 win in Wolfsburg, where Blessin openly lamented the missed chances and a lapse before the winning goal. Before that, the results were more stable, with a 0-0 draw in Mainz, a 2-1 win against Heidenheim, and a 1-1 draw in Cologne, all games in which control came more easily than brilliance. Slow starts are noticeable, with 80% of recent first halves remaining below 1.5 goals, after which the second halves often become tough and head towards a draw, yet the team still concedes goals. With Nemeth, Metcalfe, Hountondji, and Spari missing, the squad’s depth is being put to the test in the final stages.
Blessin is likely to stick with his usual back three, probably in a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Vasilj in goal behind Dzwigala, Wahl, and Mets. Pyrka and Ritzka are expected to play on the wings, with the task of pushing far forward but also quickly dropping back, while Sands and Smith secure the center and set the pace. In front of them, Fujita and Pereira Lage are the most likely duo between the lines, supporting Kaars as the lone striker. The absences of Spari, Nemeth, Metcalfe, and Hountondji limit the rotation, so Irvine, Sinani, Afolayan, Jones, or Ceesay could be the most important substitutes from the bench if St. Pauli needs more control or a different kind of threat.
HSV Form & Record Check
HSV arrive at the Millerntor in 14th place in the table with 17 points, leaving little room for improvement. They are one point behind Werder Bremen and one ahead of Augsburg, so every draw feels like a minor setback. Their last five league games have yielded one win, two draws, and two losses, a run that is more likely to keep them drifting than really push them up the table. Last week’s 0-0 draw with Gladbach was a typical HSV evening, with plenty of possession and chances, but too little precision. Before that, Freiburg punished small defensive lapses in a 2-1 win, and Frankfurt held them to a 1-1 draw in a game that HSV could have managed better at the back. The low point remains the 4-1 defeat in Hoffenheim, which was only offset by the 3-2 win in the derby against Werder. In terms of numbers, HSV has scored in four of five games and conceded goals in four, which is fitting for a team that rarely gives up completely but just as rarely really takes control. During this period, they have not won a single first half, and too often they start with shaky defense before Dompé or Vieira can pick up the pace. With Poulsen and Baldé injured and Soumahoro a doubt, the options are limited. Tangvik is expected to put pressure on Heuer Fernandes.
Under Polzin, HSV are likely to stick with their familiar 3-4-3 formation, with Heuer Fernandes probably in goal. In this prediction, Capaldo, Vuskovic, and Torunarigha form the back three, a setup that could benefit from Vuskovic’s calm build-up play and Torunarigha’s ability to cover space when the wingbacks push far forward.
St. Pauli – HSV Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record over the last five derbies is completely even, with two wins and one draw each. The most recent reference point is August 2025, when St. Pauli won 2-0 away in the Bundesliga and finally turned the tables in Hamburg. Before that, HSV had narrowly won 1-0 in 2024, while 2023 brought a 4-3 win for HSV and a 2-2 draw. There was rarely a shortage of goals, with a total of 17 scored in these five games, an average of 3.4 per game. Four of the five matches broke the 1.5 total goals mark, with the only outlier being the 1-0 win in 2024. Interestingly, from 2022 to 2023, there was a series of three matches in which each game saw over 2.5 goals, and after the break, the games often became more open. One pattern that can be taken seriously is how rarely HSV leads at halftime. In these five games, they did not win a single first half, and after the break, no match ended in a draw, which fits with the impression of clear momentum shifts. St. Pauli also scored in three consecutive games against HSV between 2022 and 2023, but the shutout in 2024 showed that such a grip can quickly slip away.
