Important Facts
- St. Pauli is 17th, four points behind Mainz and only one ahead of Heidenheim; Stuttgart travels in fourth place, three points behind Hoffenheim and three ahead of Leipzig.
- St. Pauli has been waiting for a league win since December; after a 2-1 defeat in Augsburg and a 3-0 cup exit in Leverkusen, the already thin squad seems to be under additional strain.
- With Smith, Nemeth, and Wahl out, St. Pauli lacks quality in central defense; new signing Hara is expected to help as a target player, but if they fall behind, they are likely to concede late goals.
- Stuttgart comes into the game on the back of four wins in a row, 18 goals in eight games and Undav as their offensive linchpin (22 goal contributions/19 games); since December, they have conceded only nine goals in eleven games.
- The last five encounters have always started cautiously (under 1.5 goals at halftime, never more than 3.5 in total); nevertheless, the odds of 1.8 in favor of Stuttgart also support goal bets due to St. Pauli’s defensive absences and possible rotation.
Relegation battle against Champions League ambitions – at the Millerntor, the edge is clear this time: Alexander Blessin’s FC St. Pauli is nervous going into the 21st matchday, while Sebastian Hoeneß’s VfB Stuttgart is in fourth place and has its sights set on the top. St. Pauli is 17th, four points behind Mainz above them and only one point ahead of Heidenheim. Stuttgart is three points behind Hoffenheim and three points ahead of Leipzig. Stuttgart won the last league duel in September 2025 2-0, and the cup week also showed the contrasting omens once again: St. Pauli was knocked out 3-0 in Leverkusen, while Stuttgart advanced with a 3-0 win at Holstein Kiel.
- Venue: Millerntor Stadium, Hamburg
- Date and time: February 7, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 21)
The betting market sees Stuttgart as the clear away favorites, and the odds of around 1.8 for “Stuttgart to win” reflect the current imbalance quite well: a team in 4th place on a winning streak against a St. Pauli side that has been waiting for its next league win since December. The decisive factor will be how Stuttgart’s stability – with Undav driving the offense – fares against a home defense missing Smith, Nemeth, and Wahl. At the same time, St. Pauli’s urgency and Stuttgart’s possible need for rotation ahead of Celtic could leave the door open for “Both teams to score: Yes” and even “Over 2.5 goals” to be realistic additions.
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
St. Pauli’s league results show quite clearly why they are stuck in 17th place in the table. The 2-1 defeat in Augsburg, where Sinani’s penalty briefly gave them some hope, was another game that slipped away from them after they had something to defend. Before that, there was the 1-1 draw at home against Leipzig, which looked well organized, and the 0-0 draw in the derby against Hamburger SV, with a lot of effort but not enough punch. The cup exit in Leverkusen, 3-0 on Tuesday, was not exactly encouraging and further depleted an already thin squad. Interestingly, the response in the winter transfer window was to bring in a different type of player up front. Hara is described internally as a classic target player, an indication that Blessin is focusing on more reliable space gains and clearer passing options in the penalty area. The bigger problem remains structural: with Smith, Nemeth, and Wahl all missing, the reserves in duels and second balls are smaller, and in recent games, the match has too often tipped against them after the break. Blessin can make the game difficult for Irvine with his work and a compact block, but if St. Pauli has to chase the game, the lack of defensive continuity becomes a serious risk.
Blessin is likely to stick with his familiar 3-4-2-1 formation, even if that is ultimately more of a prediction than a confirmed starting lineup. Voll could get the nod in goal, behind a back three of Ando, Sands, and Mets, a setup that focuses on compactness and specifically pushes forward into the half-spaces.
On the wings, the signs point to Saliakas and Oppie, who will then also provide most of the width. With Smith, Nemeth, and Wahl still out, there is little room for rotation in central defense, and Metcalfe’s absence makes the options in midfield even more limited. Irvine and Fujita are the most obvious choices as double sixes to ensure that pressing and second balls don’t fall by the wayside. In front of them, Sinani and Pereira could flit between the lines, with Kaars leading the line. Up front, Hara would be the classic target man option from the bench, with Hountondji and Jones unavailable.
Stuttgart form & record check
Stuttgart’s recent run across all competitions looks like that of a team that has learned to win in different ways. They followed up their 1-0 Bundesliga win against Freiburg with a 3-0 cup win at Holstein Kiel, having previously scored three goals away at Mönchengladbach and earned a 3-2 win against Young Boys in the Europa League. The only slip-up during this phase was the 2-0 defeat at Roma. The more defensive fine-tuning since the heavy defeat against Bayern in December is striking. Hoeneß is focusing more on continuity at the back, with Chabot, Hendriks, Jeltsch, Mittelstädt, and Vagnoman regularly featuring, and Nübel repeatedly coming to the rescue at key moments. This makes Stuttgart less chaotic and explains why even close games have often gone their way recently. Up front, Undav remains the focal point, not only because of his goals, but also because he is the link in many attacks. Führich has once again become a decisive weapon on the wing. Demirovic’s late winner against Freiburg underlined the depth of finishing options, and Karazor’s recent influence opens up another avenue of attack in the second phase. With the Europa League playoffs against Celtic on the horizon, rotation is a distinct possibility, but the overall level has remained high.
Hoeneß is likely to stick with VfB Stuttgart’s tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation, with Nübel behind a back four of Vagnoman, Chabot, Hendriks, and Mittelstädt. Karazor and Stiller should start again as the double six, setting the tempo and protecting the center backs. In front of them, El Khannouss looks like the obvious link player, supported on the left and right by Leweling and the recently resurgent Führich, while Undav leads most of the attacks up front. With Zagadou still out and Nartey also unavailable, the defensive and midfield axis is likely to remain unchanged, which suits a team that has looked increasingly stable recently. Jovanovic and Tiago Tomás are also unlikely to feature, with Diehl or Bouanani among those waiting on the bench on the wings. If Hoeneß wants to bring on a second striker late on, Demirovic is the obvious alternative to Undav.
St. Pauli – Stuttgart Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five encounters, Stuttgart had the better record overall with three wins, one draw, and one defeat. The most recent matches were in September 2025, when Stuttgart won 2-0 at home, and in May 2025, when Stuttgart won 1-0 at Millerntor. St. Pauli’s ray of hope came in December 2024, with a 1-0 away win in Stuttgart. The older encounters ended 1-1 in 2020, and Stuttgart won 2-1 in 2019. The pattern is clear enough to take seriously: these games often start cautiously, with all five remaining under 1.5 goals at halftime, and never going over 3.5 goals over the full distance. Stuttgart has also not lost a second half in this series, while St. Pauli has struggled to turn games around late on and has often conceded goals after the break. If the tempo picks up here, it will be more because of the current context than tradition.
