Captain Hauke Wahl, fresh with a new contract, called for self-criticism after the first defeat of the season in Stuttgart: St. Pauli’s defense is not yet at last year’s level. On Saturday at the Millerntor Stadium against Bayer Leverkusen, it will become clear whether the Kiezkickers can hold their own without their key players Jackson Irvine and David Nemeth. Coach Kasper Hjulmand has his first full week of training with the Werkself to implement his clearer structural concept, while the integration of Patrik Schick and defending set pieces continue to cause him headaches. The visitors will be without Palacios, Hofmann, and Terrier, who are suspended from the Champions League, which makes them only slight favorites despite Leverkusen’s historical dominance. St. Pauli, currently fourth in the table, are still waiting for their first win against the Werkself after their most recent encounter in April ended 1-1.
- Venue: Millerntor Stadium, Hamburg
- Date and time: September 27, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 5)
St. Pauli form & record check
FC St. Pauli’s current form is mixed after a promising start to the season. After two strong wins at the beginning, the team suffered its first defeat of the season last Thursday against Stuttgart, losing 0-2, but still remains in a respectable fourth place in the table. The defense has not been as confident as in the first few games, prompting captain Hauke Wahl to strike a self-critical tone. The veteran demanded that the team “step it up a notch or two” after the defeat to Stuttgart. The record from the last five competitive games is quite respectable, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat. There is a noticeable pattern in the distribution of goals: in 80 percent of recent games, fewer than 1.5 goals were scored in both the first and second halves, which suggests compact but rather uneventful encounters. Coach Alexander Blessin is plagued by several absences: David Nemeth, Jackson Irvine, and Karol Mets are all key regulars who are unavailable due to muscle problems or fitness issues. Ricky-Jade Jones is also unavailable due to a shoulder injury, which could limit rotation and tactical flexibility, especially against a high-caliber opponent like Bayer Leverkusen.
St. Pauli are likely to line up again with the tried-and-tested 3-4-1-2 formation that Alexander Blessin has favored this season. Captain Wahl, whose contract extension has just been announced, is expected to lead the back three. After the defeat in Stuttgart, he called for better defensive work. In terms of personnel, Blessin has to do without several key players. Jackson Irvine is still out with muscle problems, which means the midfield will have to be reshuffled. David Nemeth and Karol Mets are also unavailable, limiting the options in defense. There could be changes up front after the poor performance against Stuttgart.
Leverkusen Form & Record Check
Bayer Leverkusen is going through a difficult transition phase. After Erik ten Hag’s early departure, Kasper Hjulmand took over two weeks ago, but has had little time for real training sessions. The 1-1 draw against Gladbach clearly revealed the problems: a lack of structure, poor finishing and, once again, poorly defended set pieces. The results of the last five games show a team in transition with only one win, three draws, and one defeat. The defense has conceded goals in each of the last five games, but Leverkusen has scored in every game, which speaks for its intact offensive qualities. Against Gladbach, Tillman gave the Werkself the lead after an assist from Schick, but Tabakovic equalized in stoppage time. Typical of the current phase was the passivity in the final stages, which is one of Hjulmand’s long list of shortcomings. Important players are missing: Palacios, Hofmann, and Terrier are suspended for the Champions League, and Tella is out with a knee injury. Seven players in Gladbach’s starting lineup were not at the club last season, which makes it difficult to develop automatic responses. Hjulmand is now calling for a simple, clear structural concept after his first real week of training.
After the 1-1 draw against Gladbach, coach Kasper Hjulmand is likely to use his first full week of training to refine his ideas. The Werkself will probably line up in their usual 3-4-2-1 system, with Flekken in goal. Quansah, Badé, and Tapsoba could be given preference in the back three. Hjulmand will have to do without several key players: Palacios, Hofmann, and Terrier are not eligible to play in the Champions League, while Tella is out with a knee injury. These absences are likely to secure Tillman and Aleix García starting places in central midfield, flanked by Lucas Vázquez and Grimaldo on the wings. In attack, the duo of Maza and Ben Seghir could play behind striker Schick. The Danish coach recently criticized the Czech striker’s lack of involvement, which suggests tactical adjustments are to be expected.
H2H St. Pauli – Leverkusen Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent record between the two teams paints a clear picture in Leverkusen’s favor. St. Pauli has never won in the last four encounters, managing only a draw at Millerntor in April 2025. Leverkusen’s streak of three consecutive wins against Hamburg is remarkable. This dominance began in 2010 and continued for more than a decade until last April’s 1-1 draw interrupted the winning streak. An interesting detail can be seen in the goal distribution: all of the matches have been relatively low-scoring, with none of the last four games ending with more than three goals. St. Pauli conceded at least one goal in each of these matches, while Leverkusen scored in every game. The two most recent encounters in the 2024/25 season reflected the difference in class between the two teams. While Leverkusen won 2-1 away in December 2024, St. Pauli managed to earn their first point against the Rhinelanders in over 14 years in the return match.
Leverkusen has scored and conceded goals in all five Bundesliga games, while St. Pauli has scored at least once in four consecutive games. The absence of center backs Nemeth and Mets for the hosts significantly weakens their defense, prompting captain Wahl to call for better defensive work after the defeat in Stuttgart. “Both teams to score: Yes” at around 1.75 appears to be a solid choice, especially as the visitors’ control in midfield is weakened without Palacios. The away win at 2.2 finds its value in the statistical dominance of the Werkself, who have scored at least twice in every game so far. Grimaldo’s free kick skills and Schick’s current scoring form could provide an early lead that opens up the game. The riskier bet on over 3.5 goals reflects Hamburg’s recent 3-3 draw with Dortmund and Leverkusen’s tendency to produce spectacular encounters. The analytical view favors the visitors more clearly than the bookmakers’ odds suggest.
