Important Facts
- St. Pauli is under acute pressure in 17th place with 13 points; Leipzig, in fifth (35), is chasing the top four, and a slip-up would also bring Leverkusen closer.
- St. Pauli continues to produce few clear chances; 80% of their last five games had under 1.5 goals before halftime, and Jones’ pace (36.46 km/h) remains a glimmer of hope.
- Leipzig has been inconsistent in its last five league games (2W/3L, no draws), but always scores; in the 3-0 win in Heidenheim, Baku, Nusa, and Raum scored three goals in eight minutes.
- Blessin will be without Nemeth, Metcalfe, and Hountondji, among others, which limits his rotation and target player options; Leipzig are also missing quality center-backs in Lukeba and Klostermann, as well as Kampl as a midfield organizer.
- In direct comparison, Leipzig has gone three games unbeaten, while St. Pauli has been waiting for a win since 2016; four of the last five duels have had fewer than 2.5 goals, and no second half has been won.
- The bookmakers see Leipzig as clear favorites (1.9), backed by a 100% goal rate and 80% over 2.5 in the last five games; due to Leipzig’s defensive absences, “both teams to score” plus over 2.5 goals seems plausible.
A glance at the table is enough to understand why this evening at the Millerntor is more than just a regular match day: FC St. Pauli are 17th in the table with 13 points, in the midst of a relegation battle, two points behind Mainz and level on points with Heidenheim, while RB Leipzig are fifth with 35 points, just one point behind Stuttgart in the race for the top four. On Tuesday, January 27, Alexander Blessin welcomes Ole Werner’s Leipzig for the 16th matchday in the Bundesliga, and both teams bring their own history with them. St. Pauli is coming off a 0-0 draw in the derby against Hamburger SV, a game that reflected their lack of punch throughout the season, even though Jones set a different tone with his pace; In addition, the club has just signed Rasmussen, an acquaintance of Blessin’s from Belgium. Leipzig is traveling with momentum after a 3-0 win in Heidenheim, with goals from Baku, Nusa, and Raum, and is considered the clear favorite by bookmakers despite its mixed league record.
- Venue: Millerntor Stadium, Hamburg
- Date and time: January 27, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 16)
The market is strongly favoring Leipzig, with odds of 1.9 for an away win. The upswing after the Heidenheim game and the constant threat under Werner are hard to ignore, especially as St. Pauli still has to do without Hountondji. Nevertheless, there is value against this one-sided sentiment: Jones’ pace and the arrival of Rasmussen could favor a home goal, while Luke’s absence makes Leipzig more vulnerable. This suggests goals at both ends and over 2.5 goals.
St. Pauli form & record check
St. Pauli’s last five league games read like a survival story with too few clear finishes. The 0-0 draw against Hamburger SV seemed flat, uninspired and without clear chances. The 3-2 defeat in Dortmund showed some fight, but the defense collapsed under sustained pressure. The 2-1 win in Wolfsburg confirmed that they can pick up points, but the 0-0 draw in Mainz and the 2-1 win against Heidenheim were more valuable than convincing. Interestingly, the pattern is often cautious early on and then unclear later on. In 80% of these games, the first half remained below 1.5 goals, and St. Pauli did not win a single second half during this period, with 80% of second halves ending in a draw. Blessin’s pressing can disrupt opponents, but the team often lacks the clean final pass to convert ball wins into sustained pressure and goals. As a result, they are 17th in the table with 13 points, two behind Mainz and level on points with Heidenheim, leaving them with virtually no room for error. Injuries are hurting the team, with Nemeth, Metcalfe, Hountondji, and Spari all missing.
The signing of Rasmussen could ensure calmer ball circulation in midfield. Jones at least offers a different gear, his 36.46 km/h sprint in the derby hinted at his impact, even if the end product remains patchy.
Blessin is likely to stick with his usual 3-4-3, with Vasilj behind a back three of Dzwigala, Wahl, and Mets. The full-back positions appear to be earmarked for Pyrka on the right and Oppie on the left, which keeps the width high and allows Smith to join Sands in the build-up play to control the center and trigger the pressing. In attack, Sinani should pull inside around Kaars, while Pereira stretches the back line. Nemeth remains sidelined, so the defensive rotation is thinner than usual, and Metcalfe is also listed as absent, so Irvine and Fujita are likely to be the main midfield alternatives off the bench. Hountondji is also missing, which could leave Kaars as the reference point, with Jones and Afolayan as more direct pace options if St. Pauli needs a different approach late on. Rasmussen is a new face to watch, possibly coming on cautiously as a substitute.
Leipzig Form & Record Check
Leipzig are in fifth place with 35 points, one point behind Stuttgart in the Champions League places, with Leverkusen three points behind, so every wobble carries more weight. Their league record in the last five games is bumpy, with two wins and three defeats, remarkably without a draw. They are either convincing or they get punished. Ole Werner has sparked brief bursts of tempo, but the fundamental consistency is still lacking. The 3-0 win in Heidenheim was the kind of controlled away victory that they too rarely achieve: a quiet first half, then three goals in eight minutes from Baku, Nusa, and Raum. Before that, Freiburg were dispatched 2-0, with decent pressing and little drama. However, the 5-1 home defeat to Bayern and, before that, the 3-1 defeat to Leverkusen and the 3-1 defeat at Union showed how quickly their structure can fall apart under sustained pressure. They have scored in each of these five league games, and all games have seen over 1.5 goals, but the rhythm remains strange, with first halves often subdued and second halves tending to be explosive. This may be due to their fitness or to the fact that riskier situations arise as soon as Leipzig regains control. The defense is thin with Lukeba and Klostermann out, Ouedraogo and Bakayoko unavailable, and Kampl still missing, which makes their dynamic seem fragile.
Leipzig are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation under Ole Werner, with Gulácsi in goal and a back four of Baku, Orbán, Bitshiabu, and Raum. With Lukeba out with knee problems and Klostermann missing with flu, the center-back pairing looks fairly clear on paper, although Henrichs or Nedeljkovic could still switch to the right if necessary. In midfield, Schlager and Seiwald are expected to dictate the tempo, with Baumgartner taking on the slightly more attacking role of link-up player. In attack, Nusa and Diomande would take over the runs on the wings alongside Rômulo, with the aim of pressing early and attacking quickly after winning the ball. The main concerns are Ouedraogo’s knee injury, Kampl’s special exemption and Bakayoko’s muscle problems, all of which limit the rotation options.
St. Pauli – Leipzig Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The record is exactly even in the last five meetings, with two wins apiece and one draw. The most recent, in February 2025, ended 2-0 for Leipzig. In 2024, Leipzig advanced in the cup with a 4-2 win, but the league game ended 0-0. St. Pauli’s two wins date back further, to 2016 and 2015, both 1-0. Leipzig are unbeaten in this fixture for three games, buoyed by their league win in February 2025 and two results from 2024. For St. Pauli, the flip side is three games without a win; they haven’t beaten Leipzig since 2016. This gap counts, even if the overall record is even. Goals have mostly been in short supply. Four of the five games have had fewer than 2.5 goals, with the 4-2 cup win in 2024 standing out as an outlier. Interestingly, each of the last five second halves has ended level, and in four of those five, the second half has produced one goal or fewer. That often points to tight game management after the break. This is matched by a curious balance: neither side has won a second half in these five encounters. This usually rewards the team that scores the first goal, and that could be important again, depending on who takes control early on. St. Pauli are currently without Nemeth, Metcalfe, and Hountondji, while Leipzig are without Lukeba and Klostermann, and Kampl is also unavailable.
