Both teams are on seven points, St. Pauli in 11th place and Hoffenheim in 12th, separated only by goal difference. After three consecutive defeats, St. Pauli has won twice in a row, while Hoffenheim has only managed one win in its last five Bundesliga games. In the two previous encounters this season, St. Pauli came out on top twice, with a 2-0 away win in November and a 1-0 home win in March. Both games were characterized by defensive, low-scoring performances, with the score at 0-0 at halftime in each case. Christian Ilzer has prescribed a running-intensive, pressing style for Hoffenheim, and with over 726 kilometers covered, they are one of the three hardest-working teams. St. Pauli is similarly strong in terms of running, covering around 721 kilometers, and is also strong in tackles. Hoffenheim will be without Machida, Gendrey, and Hlozek for the long term, while St. Pauli will have to do without Irvine and Nemeth, both of whom have muscle problems.
- Venue: Millerntor Stadium, Hamburg
- Date and time: October 19, 2025, 5:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 7)
Statistics and personnel weaknesses suggest an open, high-scoring game. Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities with good offensive stats, averaging over 1.5 goals per game in the league. Hoffenheim has conceded goals in each of its last five games, while St. Pauli has conceded in four of five games but has scored in 80% of those games. There have been no draws in the last ten head-to-head matches, with the games tending to be decisive and high-scoring. St. Pauli is missing important stabilizing factors with captain Irvine in midfield and Nemeth in defense. Ilzer’s Hoffenheim plays an intense, high-energy game, but has problems converting field advantages into clear chances. Both teams are among the stronger squads in terms of running, with many sprints and high tempo favoring space and chances. Bazoumana Touré brings speed with 35.97 km/h and 177 sprints, but his finishing efficiency is still limited. The betting market, with balanced odds for all three outcomes, points to unpredictability. “Both teams to score: Yes” and “Over 2.5 goals” are statistically sound tips, while more cautious players might opt for X2.
St. Pauli form & record check
FC St. Pauli’s form is volatile: three defeats in a row were followed by two important wins against Augsburg (2-1) and HSV (0-2). With seven points and 11th place, the interim record as a promoted team is acceptable, but the style of play and consistency leave questions unanswered. The lack of stability in the early stages is striking: In four of their last five games, St. Pauli conceded goals before the break, against Werder even after only two minutes. Such early deficits increase the pressure and make tactical play more difficult, especially against physically and tactically organized opponents. On the positive side, the team’s willingness to run, with over 721 kilometers covered, makes them one of the strongest runners in the league. Alexander Blessin will have to do without captain Irvine and center back Nemeth against Hoffenheim, and Jones is still out with injury. Irvine’s absence is doubly significant: both as a key player and in the media, given his recent controversial comments on the Middle East conflict. Against their direct rivals, who are level on points, stability in defense and a more focused opening quarter of an hour will be crucial.
Alexander Blessin plans to use his usual 3-4-1-2 formation. Captain Jackson Irvine is out with muscle problems, as are David Nemeth with muscle problems and Ricky-Jade Jones with a shoulder injury. Wahl, Smith, and Mets form the back three. Saliakas and Pyrka are expected to bring pace as wingers. Sands and Fujita take over in central midfield, with Sinani acting as the creative link to the attack behind them. Kaars and Pereira Lage form the double strike force. Metcalfe, Afolayan, and Ceesay are available from the bench as offensive options. It will be exciting to see whether Blessin can maintain the high tempo of the strong-running Hamburg team without Irvine’s leadership.
Hoffenheim Form & Record Check
Hoffenheim are in a mixed phase, sitting in 12th place with seven points from six games. The team has scored regularly in four of their last five games, but their main problem is their defense: they have conceded at least one goal in all five games and are particularly vulnerable in the first half. Their recent run is one win, one draw, and three defeats. The 0-1 home defeat to Cologne was symptomatic, with an early goal conceded, lots of yellow cards for Touré, Bernardo, and Burger, and no solution in attack despite substitutions. The only real bright spot was the 4-2 win at Union a month ago. What is striking is the improved stability in the second half: in four of the last five games, the second half ended in a draw, even though Hoffenheim scored regularly. Hlozek is out with a broken navicular bone, while Gendrey and Machida are out long term. Goalkeeper Oliver Baumann recently made a strong save for the national team. The defensive weakness could be due to a lack of coordination during transitions, individual errors, or discipline problems. Against an opponent that is strong in transition, Hoffenheim will have to be careful, especially in the first 20 minutes, to avoid falling behind early.
Christian Ilzer is likely to play with a 4-2-3-1 formation as usual. Oliver Baumann, who recently made some strong saves for the national team, is expected to start in goal. Valentin Gendrey and Koki Machida are out long-term with injuries, so Coufal, Hranac, Hajdari, and Bernardo are expected to form the back four. In central midfield, the duo of Burger and Avdullahu could provide stability. In the attacking third, Touré, Kramarić, and Bebou are likely to play behind striker Lemperle. Adam Hložek is out with a scaphoid fracture, and his absence will reduce the creativity and punch in the attack. Prass, Tohumcu, Geiger, and Berisha, among others, are available on the bench as possible substitutes.
St. Pauli – Hoffenheim Head-to-head comparison & statistics
St. Pauli has clearly dominated the last four matches against Hoffenheim: two wins for St. Pauli, one win for Hoffenheim, and one draw. Two of these matches are from the 2010/2011 season and are less relevant to the current situation. The two more recent games clearly went in favor of the Kiezkickers: in November 2024, St. Pauli won 2-0 away, followed by a narrow 1-0 home win at Millerntor in March this year. It is striking that in all four games, hardly anything happened at halftime, with a maximum of one goal in the first 45 minutes. The games were mostly decided in the second half, with St. Pauli dominating the closing stages in the two most recent encounters, while Hoffenheim struggled to get going offensively. Hoffenheim have failed to score at FC St. Pauli in their last few visits. It remains to be seen whether Christian Ilzer and his team can break this pattern or whether Hamburg will once again make the most of their home advantage.
