FC St. Pauli – Borussia Dortmund
Our St. Pauli – Dortmund prediction is: Dortmund win – 1.84 odds
- In the first leg, Dortmund beat St. Pauli 2-1
- BVB were able to avert the crisis and won 6-0 against Union Berlin on the last matchday
- St. Pauli have conceded three defeats in their last three games
FC St. Pauli will host Borussia Dortmund at the Millerntor Stadium on Saturday in the Bundesliga. The Hamburgers are in the middle of the relegation battle in 15th place in the table and have not been able to get any points out of the last three league games.
Most recently, they suffered a 2-0 defeat in Mainz, in which the absence of James Sands in defensive midfield was particularly noticeable. Nevertheless, loan player Noah Weißhaupt is developing into a real asset and almost scored against Mainz.
Dortmund are traveling to the game with their tails held high after their impressive 6-0 win over Union Berlin. Serhou Guirassy in particular shone, scoring four goals and underlining the new offensive approach adopted by coach Niko Kovač. In tenth place, BVB are just two points behind Gladbach and are determined to keep within touching distance of the international places.
Interesting fact: St. Pauli could move to within a point of Hoffenheim with a win – however, the Kiezkicker are also only six points behind 1. FC Heidenheim. Find out which team will take these important points home in our St. Pauli – Dortmund prediction.
St. Pauli – Dortmund info
- Stadium: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
- Date and Time: 01.03.2025, 3:30 pm
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 24
- TV broadcast: Sky
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
St. Pauli are currently in a worrying crisis of form. Three defeats in a row, most recently the 0-2 in Mainz, have caused the Hamburg team to slip to 15th place in the table. The offense in particular is causing coach Alexander Blessin headaches – in the last three games, his team has not scored a single goal. The loss of James Sands in defensive midfield has further exacerbated the already tense situation.
A glimmer of hope is the development of loan player Noah Weißhaupt, who has established himself as a dynamic winger. He was only centimeters away from scoring in the game in Mainz, when his shot rebounded off the inside post. Such moments of bad luck have been a recurring theme in recent performances – including a missed penalty in Mainz that highlights the current plight.
Dünne Luft
With only a one-point lead over the relegation zone, St. Pauli are running out of breathing space. The team continues to fight well, but their lack of penetration in offense could prove to be a decisive weakness in the relegation battle. Blessin must now quickly find solutions, especially with Borussia Dortmund, a Champions League contender, waiting at the weekend.
St. Pauli Facts & Analysis
- 15th place in the table
- Last three defeats in a row
- Last game 0:2 against Mainz
St. Pauli are likely to stick to their proven 3-4-2-1 system against Dortmund as well. With Sands out of the lineup, Boukhalfa is expected to take up the position in defensive midfield.
Interesting fact: Weißhaupt, who has been getting stronger lately, could start again. The backline of three with Nemeth, Wahl and Van der Heyden seems set.
In goal, Voll should get a chance this time after Vasilj’s unfortunate game against Mainz. Captain Irvine will probably play a bit more offensively again, while Smith should take over the defensive organization.
This lineup is only a prediction, though – assistant coach Nemeth, who is standing in for the suspended head coach Blessin on the sidelines, will make the final decision.
Dortmund Form & Record Check
Borussia Dortmund are currently in inconsistent form, which is particularly reflected in the recent 6-0 win against Union Berlin and the previous 2-0 defeat in Bochum. This inconsistency runs like a red thread through the season and also explains the sobering 10th place in the table.
The offense around Serhou Guirassy in particular is a mixed bag – sometimes outstanding like against Union with four Guirassy goals, sometimes completely harmless like in the goalless draw against Sporting in the Champions League.
Patchy performance
In the Bundesliga, BVB lacks the consistency needed to seriously compete for a Champions League spot. The gap to the international places is growing, while they have to look down at the teams below with only a one-point lead over Augsburg.
Interestingly, the team shows a different side in the Champions League – the 3-0 win at Sporting and the subsequent draw in the second leg underline this discrepancy.
The team, led by Pascal Groß, who excels as a precise provider of assists, continues to search for its identity. With an average of over 1.5 goals in their last few games, their offensive output is good, but their defensive stability leaves something to be desired.
One can wonder whether the new tactical orientation that has emerged in recent weeks is the right way to become more consistent again.
Dortmund Facts & Analysis
- Tenth place in the table
- Two wins from the last five league games
- Last game won 6-0 against Union
Borussia Dortmund are likely to field the same tried and tested 4-2-3-1 system again this time. After his impressive four-goal performance against Union Berlin, Guirassy is a natural starter.
The role of Groß, who has recently established himself as a key figure in the attacking midfield, will be interesting. The interplay between him and Reyna in the number ten position could be crucial to the game.
The experienced duo of Nmecha and Sabitzer in the defensive midfield should ensure defensive stability, while Schlotterbeck will organize the defense. The final lineup has not yet been confirmed, but major surprises are not to be expected.
St. Pauli – Dortmund head-to-head & statistics
The head-to-head between St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund shows a clear dominance of the black and yellows. In the last five meetings, BVB had the upper hand four times, with St. Pauli only able to prevail once.
The most recent meeting in October 2024 ended 2-1 to Dortmund. Prior to that, the Hamburgers managed a remarkable 2-1 victory in the DFB Cup in January 2022. BVB won the other three duels – two Bundesliga games (2010) and a cup game (2014) – clearly in each case.
The goal-scoring guarantee in these games is interesting: at least two goals were scored in all five games. Dortmund scored in all of them, while St. Pauli was only successful in two of the five encounters. Particularly striking: BVB regularly scored its goals in the second half – a streak that extends across all five games.
You might think that Hamburg has particular problems with Dortmund’s offense after the break. In 80% of cases, St. Pauli conceded at least one goal in the second half. The statistics also show that there have never been any draws in these duels – there was always a winner.
